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Thread: Climbing Out

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    Climbing Out


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    Demand is returning at a slow pace but continues the upswing with no valleys over the past 7 days. Shaping up really good for the overall picture at AA. Yes, international will take some time to snap back but that’s to be expected with so many countries still in various stages of opening and some still closed. All in all, it’s as I predicted. This crisis was short lived and should continue the uphill climb while rapidly gaining momentum and leveling out as the year goes on.

    On another note, I was out walking my dog in a local park yesterday and overheard a mother talking with her approximately 8 year old child. A plane had just flown over on approach to DFW which just happened to be an Envoy 175, and I overhead the child say as he pointed to the plane, “Look Mom, it’s Envoy!" Wow! Talk about a warm and fuzzy. That my friends is BRAND RECOGNITION. Yes, it’s possible that the child’s father might have been a pilot for Envoy and thus the reason he knew, but still. Reminds me of the movie Superman Returns from 2006 where the little girl was talking to her Dad as they walked down a New York street. Superman flew over and she exclaimed, “Look Dad, it’s Superman!"

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    Mental illness is indeed a tragedy.

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    Super Moderator Cujo665's Avatar
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    Delusions run deep with this one.....
    He really needs a mental eval. He kinda scares me in a German Wings kind of way.... when that WARN notice and announcement comes, they may wish to remove guys like him. When reality finally sets in, he'll act out.
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    “Demand is returning at a slow pace but continues the upswing with no valleys over the past 7 days.”

    Awesome news!👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼
    Where is the data, with the specific 7 days? So we all can celebrate together & avoid massive furloughs in Delta & United as well.
    Last edited by NoOtPilot; 05-10-2020 at 02:35 PM.

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    You’re a ****ing retard. And I don’t use that word lightly.

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    Pragmatism is the pursuit of practicality over aesthetic qualities; a concentration on facts rather than emotions or ideals while Optimism is a tendency to expect the best, or at least, a favorable outcome.

    p.s. UAL's loan at risk.

    By Marcelo Rochabrun, Devika Krishna Kumar and Nelson Bocanegra

    (Reuters) - Avianca Holdings , Latin America's second-largest airline, filed for bankruptcy on Sunday, after failing to meet a bond payment deadline, while its pleas for coronavirus aid from Colombia's government have so far been unsuccessful.

    If it fails to come out of bankruptcy, Bogota-based Avianca would be one of the first major carriers worldwide to go under as a result of the pandemic, which has crippled world travel.

    Avianca has not flown a regularly scheduled passenger flight since late March and most of its 20,000 employees have gone without pay through the crisis.

    "Avianca is facing the most challenging crisis in our 100-year history," Avianca Chief Executive Anko van der Werff said in a news release.

    While Avianca was already weak before the coronavirus outbreak, its bankruptcy filing highlights the challenges for airlines that cannot count on state rescues or on such rescues coming fast enough. Avianca is still hoping for a government bailout.

    "This isn't a surprise at all," said Juan David Ballen, chief economist at Casa de Bolsa brokerage in Bogota. "The company was heavily indebted despite the fact it tried to restructure its debt last year."

    Avianca, the second-oldest continually operating airline in the world after KLM , had $7.3 billion in debts in 2019. The airline filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in New York and said it would continue operations while it restructured its debts.

    The Colombian Association of Civil Aviators (ACDAC), a union representing many Avianca employees, said it supported the move.

    Avianca already went through bankruptcy in the early 2000s, from which it was rescued by a Bolivian-born oil businessman, German Efromovich.

    Efromovich grew Avianca aggressively but also saddled the carrier with significant debt until he was ousted from the airline last year in a boardroom coup led by United Airlines Holdings Inc . He still owns a majority stake in the carrier.

    United stands to lose up to $700 million in loans related to Avianca.


    Efromovich told Reuters on Sunday that he disagreed with the decision to file for bankruptcy and that he was not involved in making it.

    LEAD-UP TO BANKRUPTCY

    The management that took over after Efromovich's ousting was already focused on a cost-cutting reorganization dubbed "Avianca 2021" before this year's crisis.

    Warnings about its fragile finances abounded. Roberto Kriete, president of Avianca's board, said last year in a meeting with employees that the airline was "broke."

    Last month, Avianca's accounting firm, KPMG, said it had "substantial doubts" about the carrier's ability to exist a year from now.

    Avianca's shares closed at 88 cents on Friday in New York, from a high of more than $18 in 2014.

    Most pressingly, Avianca was facing a $65 million bond payment due on Sunday that analysts did not think the airline was in a position to meet. S&P downgraded the airline to CCC- status in the days leading up to that payment.

    Airline executives confirmed in a press call on Sunday night that they had not made the payment.

    Van der Werff had mounted a public relations campaign in recent weeks to secure emergency aid from Colombia's government, but none had materialized as of Sunday.

    Avianca has no certain date to resume operations, as its main hubs - Colombia, El Salvador and Peru - have all shut down air traffic to fight the coronavirus. The carrier faced backlash after it sold plane tickets for late May only to have to cancel them when Colombia extended its coronavirus lockdown.

    Avianca will also shut down its operations in Peru, which represents 5% of the airline's revenue, and will lay off hundreds of employees within the next 10 days.

    "In this time, we do not have liquidity to sustain a loss-making operation," Silvia Mosquera, Avianca's chief commercial officer, told reporters regarding Avianca Peru.

    Colombia's Avianca is the third of Efromovich's airlines to go through bankruptcy or out of business in recent years. Airlines Avianca Brasil and Avianca Argentina ceased to exist last year because of economic troubles in their markets.

    (Reporting by Marcelo Rochabrun in Sao Paulo, Devika Krishna Kumar in New York and Nelson Bocanegra in Bogota; Additional reporting by Oliver Griffin in Bogota; Editing by Daniel Wallis, Lisa Shumaker and Peter Cooney)

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    Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun told NBC's "TODAY" show that it's "likely" that a major U.S. carrier goes out of business this year.
    He said passenger traffic isn't likely to get back to even 25% of the norm in September. Federal funding that requires airlines to keep employees runs out at the end of that month.
    A Boeing spokesman said Calhoun was "speaking to the general uncertainty in the sector, not about any one particular airline."

    TUE, MAY 12 2020

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    That would be skywest.

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    Only 2.25 million less people traveling every day.....rejoice....we’re up to 8% of where we were last year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheRaven View Post
    Only 2.25 million less people traveling every day.....rejoice....we’re up to 8% of where we were last year.
    With 8% AA Active Pilots Requirements is:
    332 Domestic Pilots
    748 International Pilots

    Plenty of time to reach 50% or half the active seniority list by October.

    May 9, the United States' Transport Security Administration(TSA) clocked just 170,000 passengers -- down 1.8 million from 2019.

    Sure Boeing CEO was wrong when he said...
    “passenger traffic isn't likely to get back to even 25% of the norm in September.”
    Last edited by NoOtPilot; 05-13-2020 at 06:57 AM.

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    Looks like Parker’s strategy is to deploy more RJ’s in the load-factor challenged Summer of 2020. Considering this will be a major factor for quite awhile, Envoy will capitalize on that, so that’s good for Envoy pilots, but VERY bad for those who want to flow. Those with flow ambitions to AA might want to get comfortable with their present situation as that will be it for the foreseeable future and that’s more of a best case scenario.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    Looks like Parker’s strategy is to deploy more RJ’s in the load-factor challenged Summer of 2020. Considering this will be a major factor for quite awhile, Envoy will capitalize on that, so that’s good for Envoy pilots, but VERY bad for those who want to flow. Those with flow ambitions to AA might want to get comfortable with their present situation as that will be it for the foreseeable future and that’s more of a best case scenario.
    What other options do we have? Have you been to a job fair in the past few weeks?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Meatloaf View Post
    What other options do we have? Have you been to a job fair in the past few weeks?
    This was exactly one of my points regarding the byproduct of a geographical event like this. But let’s face it, most Envoy pilots who were foaming at the mouth to be AA pilot number 15,000+ soon weren't being particularly assertive about other options and were rationalizing AA as the place to be, what with the retirements and all. Once things like this happen, it’s too late as you note; you’re stuck.

    Whenever the flow does start again (if it does), will most change and become aggressive about hitching their carts to a stronger horse? Unlikely. They will rationalize even more their lot in life, especially being as much as 5 years older. Worse yet, that horse will be weighed down with 40 billion in debt. Even if it takes years to end up in Bankruptcy, that will be even worse for those that put all their hopes on AA as they will be weaker candidates to start over elsewhere due to age. The next event will likely not be impacting the industry, but just AA and no lifeline likely there, just a judge. If you have a job there and can hold on, pay and benefit cuts would be likely. Actually, Envoy might end up the better job security vs. junior AA, so that may very well be the better move anyway.

    There is no shame is being a career Envoy pilot (seriously) at least compared to AA as it’s essentially the same outfit. If you don’t believe me, Dacuj will be happy to tell you.
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 05-14-2020 at 09:50 AM.

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    Job Fair? Which companies are hiring? I could be furloughed late 2021. I only have to compete with millions of other unemployed Americans, should be stressful and frustrating. Saving more to cushion the hard landing.

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    Super Moderator Cujo665's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    Looks like Parker’s strategy is to deploy more RJ’s in the load-factor challenged Summer of 2020. Considering this will be a major factor for quite awhile, Envoy will capitalize on that, so that’s good for Envoy pilots, but VERY bad for those who want to flow. Those with flow ambitions to AA might want to get comfortable with their present situation as that will be it for the foreseeable future and that’s more of a best case scenario.

    Bob Crandall said a long long time ago that he'd never ever seen an airline go out of business for flying an airplane that was too small but always full. He could not say the opposite. When the loads demand 50 to 76 seats, you rework your schedules and send the plane that makes money on that routing. I don't fault him there one bit. It's the right thing to do. Now, if the APA guys were smart, they'd file single transportation system with NMB. The company creating a single interview cradle to grave career has in essence made the regional the entry level for being a AA pilot. Once hired at ENY/PSA/PDT, they have been hired at AA and are just awaiting their seniority to hold transfer to a B737 or A320 class. There is no hiring or interview process. You have company SA paid stooges on here saying they are AA pilots. You have recruiters telling college kids they'll take one interview and get hired once their entire career. They'll become CFI, then become an Envoy employee assigned to CFI at the college with no CBA. Then they'll just show up in indoc and ground school as an Envoy pilot when the time comes with no interview, no sim eval, no medical and will work under ALPA CBA. Then they'll bid their base and equipment and fly as and FO and a CA and when their seniority can hold it, they will bid to move to the bigger planes and bid base and equipment.... having never interviewed or any other HR hurdles.
    Sure sounds like a single job career path job to me with bidding your equipment and bases based on your seniority from cradle to grave.

    Wouldn't that be a kick in the balls to AAG.
    create such a seamless one interview career path that they inadvertently force a pilot list integration as they made it a single system themselves....
    Last edited by Cujo665; 05-14-2020 at 11:10 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by SlowHand View Post
    Job Fair? Which companies are hiring? I could be furloughed late 2021. I only have to compete with millions of other unemployed Americans, should be stressful and frustrating. Saving more to cushion the hard landing.
    Omni just opened our hiring window yesterday. $124ph first year. They parked one plane for about a month that had been doing scheduled PAX service. They retasked it to DOD and everybody is still working.
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    Good news. Thanks.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cujo665 View Post
    Bob Crandall said a long long time ago that he'd never ever seen an airline go out of business for flying an airplane that was too small but always full. He could not say the opposite. When the loads demand 50 to 76 seats, you rework your schedules and send the plane that makes money on that routing. I don't fault him there one bit. It's the right thing to do. Now, if the APA guys were smart, they'd file single transportation system with NMB. The company creating a single interview cradle to grave career has in essence made the regional the entry level for being a AA pilot. Once hired at ENY/PSA/PDT, they have been hired at AA and are just awaiting their seniority to hold transfer to a B737 or A320 class. There is no hiring or interview process. You have company SA paid stooges on here saying they are AA pilots. You have recruiters telling college kids they'll take one interview and get hired once their entire career. They'll become CFI, then become an Envoy employee assigned to CFI at the college with no CBA. Then they'll just show up in indoc and ground school as an Envoy pilot when the time comes with no interview, no sim eval, no medical and will work under ALPA CBA. Then they'll bid their base and equipment and fly as and FO and a CA and when their seniority can hold it, they will bid to move to the bigger planes and bid base and equipment.... having never interviewed or any other HR hurdles.
    Sure sounds like a single job career path job to me with bidding your equipment and bases based on your seniority from cradle to grave.

    Wouldn't that be a kick in the balls to AAG.
    create such a seamless one interview career path that they inadvertently force a pilot list integration as they made it a single system themselves....
    NMB determination and award of AA and Eagle (the other separate three wholly-owned subsidiaries of AAG) IMO would require more integration that what is at present across multiple employee groups. The purpose would first be to determine a Collective Bargaining Agent first. That process would be a long path. The IAM and TWU went through that at AA with mechanics and FSC’s finishing in 2015 and they were working on the same property. As for the claims of Bob Crandall, I wouldn’t take everything he says as gospel. I do agree though that flying RJ’s now isn’t a bad idea and only stated that neutrally in my post.

    In the long run though, I don’t think it will make a big difference for AA as it will improve liquidity by end of year, but their monstrous debt will still be there.
    Last edited by Cujo665; 05-15-2020 at 12:45 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    NMB determination and award of AA and Eagle (the other separate three wholly-owned subsidiaries of AAG) IMO would require more integration that what is at present across multiple employee groups. The purpose would first be to determine a Collective Bargaining Agent first. That process would be a long path. The IAM and TWU went through that at AA with mechanics and FSC’s finishing in 2015 and they were working on the same property. As for the claims of Bob Crandall, I wouldn’t take everything he says as gospel. I do agree though that flying RJ’s now isn’t a bad idea and only stated that neutrally in my post.

    In the long run though, I don’t think it will make a big difference for AA as it will improve liquidity by end of year, but their monstrous debt will still be there.
    just arguing the pilots are a single craft group. Especially since they are being hired as AA pilots while still in college. The hiring is done, just gaining enough seniority to bid the bigger planes on the other CBA. Route scheduling and selection; centralized. Employee relations; centralized. Uniforms, almost identical. Passenger tickets, one one covers all four, company decides which plane they get on the route being sold.

    sure sounds like single craft to me.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cujo665 View Post
    just arguing the pilots are a single craft group. Especially since they are being hired as AA pilots while still in college. The hiring is done, just gaining enough seniority to bid the bigger planes on the other CBA. Route scheduling and selection; centralized. Employee relations; centralized. Uniforms, almost identical. Passenger tickets, one one covers all four, company decides which plane they get on the route being sold.

    sure sounds like single craft to me.
    I understand your point from a theoretical standpoint. Actually, that could have been asserted even more convincingly years ago when some Eagle pilots existed on both seniority lists simultaneously. I'm just looking at it from a practical standpoint of going through the NMB as that has higher hrdles and takes a lot of time. I think it would be an easier path to revisit a closer relationship between the pilot groups through another mechanism similar to Letter 3. I don't see that likely though. Possible, but not likely.

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