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Thread: Flow Update

  1. #21
    Registered User ardvark's Avatar
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    To those you mention, point taken

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    Quote Originally Posted by v1rotate View Post
    so what, It won't happen. Taking the risk and losing at AA for a little bit is still better than staying at envoy.
    No furloughs at AA? I guess that settles it then. You have spoken and that is that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ardvark View Post
    What risk did they take?
    Going to the bottom of a 15,000 pilot seniority list of a company with now almost 40 billion in debt.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    No furloughs at AA? I guess that settles it then. You have spoken and that is that.
    It won't happen = flowback won’t happen
    Last edited by v1rotate; 04-19-2020 at 08:49 AM.

  5. #25
    Registered User ardvark's Avatar
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    Dream on

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    Quote Originally Posted by ardvark View Post
    Dream on
    Flow back will not be implemented. No AA pilots will flow back to eagle. Mark my words.

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    No FlowBacks! IF AA Furloughs, IF your seniority number comes up, YOU will be furloughed. In my case, Unemployment. I've been Unemployed before.

    ....What's in your Savings account? Do you have a Plan?

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    Quote Originally Posted by SlowHand View Post
    No FlowBacks! IF AA Furloughs, IF your seniority number comes up, YOU will be furloughed. In my case, Unemployment. I've been Unemployed before.

    ....What's in your Savings account? Do you have a Plan?

    Agreed.

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    Quote Originally Posted by v1rotate View Post
    It won't happen = flowback.
    There is no mechanism for “flowback”. That would have to be something agreed to by all parties. That’s not impossible (agreement), but highly unlikely.
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 04-19-2020 at 08:54 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SlowHand View Post
    No FlowBacks! IF AA Furloughs, IF your seniority number comes up, YOU will be furloughed. In my case, Unemployment. I've been Unemployed before.

    ....What's in your Savings account? Do you have a Plan?
    If it’s a “traditional” furlough with no BK or scope gives by APA, AA’s retirements will eventually move back furloughees to the AA ranks. It would be at a metered rate. Furloughs would be in stages, so there would be an initial period where that wouldn’t occur. It all depends on how many furloughed and over what period. It’s still possible no furloughs would occur. If they do furlough, it win’t be a “lost decade” like the past, but would likely be a several year setback, perhaps as long as 5 years for the most junior if there were 3,000-4,000 furloughs.

    If APA scope is broken by whatever means, all bets are off as that would almost certainly involve a significant transfer of AA flying over to the Eagle system and that would nullify the retirement/recall process for years, unless as part of that APA secured flying rights to transferred flying for AA furloughees. No certainties yet, only possibilities.
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 04-19-2020 at 08:53 AM.

  11. #31
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    Absurd. There won't be a bankruptcy or furlough. I'm saying it here and now.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    Absurd. There won't be a bankruptcy or furlough. I'm saying it here and now.
    I agree with you on the furlough, not so much on the BK. What is your logic or reasoning?

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    Simple. Bailout money and too big to fail.

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    Simple. Bailout money and too big to fail.
    That isn't how this works, BK doesn't mean the end of AAL, it means the unsecured debt holders get pennies on the dollar. Bailout money gets them to Oct, but that still doesn't explain how they pay off the debt they are holding. AAL needs to dump some debt, and this gives them a great cover to do it.

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    Simple enough! Everyone is guessing. There are factors that are behind the scenes such as Board of Directors, Stockholders (Who seem to think they are entitled to a guaranteed regular payment) and simple demand for air travel in the future. This COVID -19 is changing the entire economy in ways no one could imagine. Businesses are using Zoom, Skype and a lot of other internet to make contact over great distances. Many people are working from home which may last or totally convert office space. Let's all dig in and do as we have done in the past to survive.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    Absurd. There won't be a bankruptcy or furlough. I'm saying it here and now.
    Considering your piss poor history of accuracy up to now, this latest claim is what is absurd. BTW, it looks like the APC crowd has universally proclaimed you douche bag of the century.

    Congratulations!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beardad60 View Post
    Simple enough! Everyone is guessing. There are factors that are behind the scenes such as Board of Directors, Stockholders (Who seem to think they are entitled to a guaranteed regular payment) and simple demand for air travel in the future. This COVID -19 is changing the entire economy in ways no one could imagine. Businesses are using Zoom, Skype and a lot of other internet to make contact over great distances. Many people are working from home which may last or totally convert office space. Let's all dig in and do as we have done in the past to survive.
    Yes, no certainty of either bankruptcy or furlough. But, from an odds standpoint, furlough to some degree is more likely than not. Bankruptcy is harder to predict, but I canít see a profit path to pare down most of their debt over the next decade. They may choose to kick the can, but if Covid comes back or some other negative event occurs during the next decade, AA is very unlikely to be able to withstand it.

  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    Absurd. There won't be a bankruptcy or furlough. I'm saying it here and now.

    and the flow will never stop......
    __________________________________________________ __

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cujo665 View Post
    and the flow will never stop......
    Itís contractual!
    Warlord of the crewroom.

  20. #40
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    "Plan for the Worst, hope for the Best". This afternoon, I have a phone appointment with my Financial Adviser. I forecast a 10-30% reduction in my bi-monthly pay statements for the foreseeable future due to lower PBS monthly ALV's across all pilot positions. This lower compensation starts on 15 May 2020. A second and very negative outlook I will bring up, a 20 month furlough from AA without any income. Agree with Beagleboy, furloughs will be in stages, IF executed. The backbone of the legacy carriers are the NB flying. Massive simulator training from WB to NB positions will take time. 01 Apr 2021 to 01 Dec 2022 is my forecast. Contract violations, Scope erosion, Inflation, Chap 11, geopolitical events, Covid-19 second wave, etc. All possible, hard to predict.

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