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Thread: New Bid AA

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    Registered User Dacuj's Avatar
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    New Bid AA


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    New bid is out at AA and once again, it's just as I predicted and the haters, naysayers and one particular doomsdayer here that likens himself to Yoda are proven WRONG!

    Overall, new statuses and likely a displacement in the future. But the short of it is that AA will carry about 1k extra pilots over the summer and after the numbers will shift coming in line with what is actually needed. General consensus across the board is NO furloughs. Again, just as I've been saying.

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    Super Moderator Cujo665's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    New bid is out at AA and once again, it's just as I predicted and the haters, naysayers and one particular doomsdayer here that likens himself to Yoda are proven WRONG!

    Overall, new statuses and likely a displacement in the future. But the short of it is that AA will carry about 1k extra pilots over the summer and after the numbers will shift coming in line with what is actually needed. General consensus across the board is NO furloughs. Again, just as I've been saying.
    You do realize (maybe you don't) they can't run a bid with furloughs after taking CARES money until October right? When August comes and goes without any WARN letters going THEN you can make the statement you just made.

    They said:
    12,086 total pilots in September 2020, 10,060 in November 2020, 10,114 in February 2021, 10,997 in July 2021
    You have 12,567 active pilots now.


    Last edited by Cujo665; 05-07-2020 at 04:46 PM.
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    Registered User ardvark's Avatar
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    Dacuj is an idiot. Cant tell left from right.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cujo665 View Post
    You do realize (maybe you don't) they can't run a bid with furloughs after taking CARES money until October right? When August comes and goes without any WARN letters going THEN you can make the statement you just made.

    They said:
    12,086 total pilots in September 2020, 10,060 in November 2020, 10,114 in February 2021, 10,997 in July 2021
    You have 12,567 active pilots now.


    Additional retirements over the next year will trim another thousand off the present pilot cadre (12,500 now to 11,000 next Summer), thus the optimism in the staffing situation which may or may not be founded. But the wildcard that NO ONE can predict is how fast people will return to flying and the bottom line is EXACTLY what I said was at high risk - The cessation of the flow for various periods for various reasons. I would bet on some level of furlough vs. none, but even if they don’t, the major reason they won’t is stopping hiring and letting attrition do that job which is ANOTHER aspect I mentioned - stagnation. But, AA is now saddled with 40 billion in debt which cannot be ignored and that chicken WILL come home to roost.

    The forum clown is and will continue to spin anything and everything to achieve some credibility. He’s failed miserably since day one and that won’t change. United is forecasting thousands of furlough’s as is Delta. Whose outlook is more accurate? we shall see...
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 05-07-2020 at 06:23 PM.

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    Delta is parking 700+ planes...how many are AA
    going to keep flying?

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    Quote Originally Posted by NoOtPilot View Post
    Delta is parking 700+ planes...how many are AA
    going to keep flying?
    Right now, it looks like 10-15% is the range of long-term fleet retirement and parking the A330-200’s. That would be something like 100+ planes. Clearly there is a massive disconnect between United/Delta and AA. Considering Parker’s well-documented history of denial and fantasy, one could question whether he is just continuing down the same road.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cujo665 View Post
    You do realize (maybe you don't) they can't run a bid with furloughs after taking CARES money until October right? When August comes and goes without any WARN letters going THEN you can make the statement you just made.

    They said:
    12,086 total pilots in September 2020, 10,060 in November 2020, 10,114 in February 2021, 10,997 in July 2021
    You have 12,567 active pilots now.


    I'm not defending the class clown but why run a large displacement bid for September only to run another in October? They will start training people only to train them again? Parker said some where this week they trying to carry the overage.

    Quote Originally Posted by Cujo665 View Post

    They said:
    12,086 total pilots in September 2020, 10,060 in November 2020, 10,114 in February 2021, 10,997 in July 2021
    You have 12,567 active pilots now.


    And how many retirements and early retirements before July 2021? It's very notable that AA is the only one offering the paid year year leave for 62+.

    *last I heard DAL,WN and UA are not offering this. In fact DAL and UA got smacked this week for trying to reduce pay before October. DAL mechanics are being forced below 40 hours etc.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NoOtPilot View Post
    Delta is parking 700+ planes...how many are AA
    going to keep flying?
    DAL, UA and AA have all parked a large number of aircraft. Do you think this is permanent? No, I didn't this so. You always exaggerate. Drama llama

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    MOAB 2.0. There WILL be more, only the size will vary. Any potential Furloughs would be mainly sourced from Group 1, 2 FO's. Management would be smart to begin training Group 2 FO seats, sooner rather than later, carry an overage, flush extra Pilots via the metered Street Flow 01 October 2020, IF Needed. Mitigate with VPLOA/VSTLOA.

    p.s. It is interesting that UA has a much more pessimistic outlook than AA.

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    Super Moderator Cujo665's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Meatloaf View Post
    I'm not defending the class clown but why run a large displacement bid for September only to run another in October? They will start training people only to train them again? Parker said some where this week they trying to carry the overage.

    And how many retirements and early retirements before July 2021? It's very notable that AA is the only one offering the paid year year leave for 62+.
    Those are valid points. If they were not facing bankruptcy and if Parker were not desperate for good public news rather than bad public news I'd have more faith in that viewpoint.
    It costs them very little to run another bid in this situation in this short a period of time. The senior folks go to training first, and in that short period of time the ones that are furlough fodder won't be wasting any money going to training that fast. Lots of variables in play. If it were not for the terrible financials, and the mountain of bad press building against Parker I'd put more stock in your theory.

    as for the early buyouts...… and what happened to the retirees in the last bankruptcy?
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    Super Moderator Cujo665's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SlowHand View Post

    p.s. It is interesting that UA has a much more pessimistic outlook than AA.

    As does Delta, Frontier, Spirit, Allegiant, JetBlue and everybody else in pax flying.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Meatloaf View Post
    DAL, UA and AA have all parked a large number of aircraft. Do you think this is permanent? No, I didn't this so. You always exaggerate. Drama llama
    I only said a fact about DAL & UA, these airlines parked 700+ planes, never mentioned or predicted anything about the future, a future that anybody can not predict, but only take advantage of.

    Let’s stick to the facts, let’s not create any more drama...the industry, the economy and the country already have enough drama as it is.

    On a positive note, appears Delta and United are the only ones furloughing more than 5,000+ (Active)pilots and not AA.

    A320’s will be the next announcement...

    The Right Sizing of America & American is starting to take shape.

    This virus is nothing more than “An artificially created 9/11” a once in a lifetime opportunity that corporations have to take advantage of, they are...
    and they will.
    Last edited by NoOtPilot; 05-08-2020 at 01:22 PM.

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    Super Moderator Cujo665's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NoOtPilot View Post
    I only said a fact about DAL & UA, these airlines parked 700+ planes, never mentioned or predicted anything about the future, a future that anybody can not predict, but only take advantage of.

    Let’s stick to the facts, let’s not create any more drama...the industry, the economy and the country already have enough drama as it is.

    On a positive note, appears Delta and United are the only ones furloughing more than 5,000+ (Active)pilots and not AA.

    A320’s will be the next announcement...

    The Right Sizing of America & American is starting to take shape.

    This virus is nothing more than “An artificially created 9/11” a once in a lifetime opportunity that corporations have to take advantage of, they are...
    and they will.
    perhaps they just want to maintain a high cash burn through rate to get to bankruptcy faster so they can reorganize under the cloak of COVID19 demand reduction......
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    Clarification on Headcounts
    On May 7, AA Crew Manpower Planning published a Vacancy Announcement that included plans for displacements, known vacancies, and the August 2020 headcount. Also included in this document were 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, and July 2021 forecast headcounts.

    To better understand these tables, some clarification is necessary. First, the numbers on these tables are “active” pilots. They do not include pilots who are not active, e.g. pilots out on long-term disability or some leaves of absences. The approximately 784 pilots who took the Voluntary Permanent Leave of Absence (VPLOA) have been removed from that total. The forecasts that follow start from that basis.

    What is not included in the follow-on data is normal attrition. From Sept. 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021, nearly 350 pilots will reach the mandatory retirement age of 65, and normal attrition generally runs slightly higher than that number. When looking at the August 2020 forecast of 12,674 pilots and comparing that to the July 2021 forecast of 10,997 pilots, there is a difference of 1,677. That number does not include the minimum of 350 pilots who will age out during that period or account for other attrition. Considering these factors, the 1,677 moves to, at most, 1,327 fewer active pilots.

    APA leadership fully understands that this is, nonetheless, a significant and sobering number for our pilots, especially for those at the lower end of the seniority list. APA has already negotiated Letter of Agreement 20-001, which provides for permanent and short-term leaves to mitigate furloughs. While not guaranteed, we believe management will continue to offer these leaves in the future. We have engaged with management to lower the age threshold for VPLOAs in an effort to expand this opportunity. To date, management has not shown any interest in doing this. APA continues to push this issue and pursue other alternatives.

    At the present time, APA has done ― and achieved ― more than any other pilot union to preserve jobs and stave off involuntary furloughs. We will continue to explore every option possible, within the direction provided by the APA Board of Directors, in order to seek creative agreements with management that will benefit all pilots throughout all ranges of seniority. We will keep you posted as conditions develop.

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    Registered User NoOtPilot's Avatar
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    A very simple question!

    A FULL fleet at AA required 13,000 (active) pilots.
    If demands increases to 50% of the new fleet by October...How many pilots are required at AA?

    🤔🤔🤔🤔

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cujo665 View Post
    The senior folks go to training first, and in that short period of time the ones that are furlough fodder won't be wasting any money going to training that fast.
    A buddy of mine is over there. He says they do not train in seniority order or inverse order. His words, "No rhyme or reason to it" He also said they don't put out a flowplan.

    Quote Originally Posted by Cujo665 View Post
    as for the early buyouts...… and what happened to the retirees in the last bankruptcy?
    He said these guys are still on the seniority list to protect them from just that. If the company tried to pull the rug out from them, they could choose to come back. More training for the company.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NoOtPilot View Post
    A320’s will be the next announcement...

    .
    Let me save you the drama. The parking of the older 320s were announced before Covid. Drama Llama

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    It looks like at present, AA will not need to flow any pilots for at least 18 months with attrition hopefully minimizing or possibly even preventing furloughs. But, it's clear Delta and United have a different take on the whole situation as opposed to AA for that 18 month "interim" period. One of the two approaches is destined to turn out to be the wrong one, but whose will it be? The next question is, what about the long-term? This Fall/Winter will be a good indicator of what Parker plans to do about all that debt, but that is predicated on the situation stabilizing to the point they can resume kicking-the-can. If the situation isn't stabilized for whatever reason such as a second outbreak spike, then it will likely become more obvious. Personally, the debt issue just isn't condusive to confident future investment and if AA is going to generate any reasonable return for investors (a major point of the business), SOMETHING has to be done. The question there too, is what ?

    AA was in a DEEP hole before Corona and now is an even deeper one. Paying down more debt with less revenue doesn't seem like a successful bet and that's going to be an uneasy place for those junior at AA even if not furloughed in the next 18 months. The latest bid will provide some guidance and the next clue will be whether WARN notices appear or not later this Summer. In the interim, I think all affected pilots should not assume the worst is over and to put priority on their savings accounts.
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 05-09-2020 at 01:32 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Meatloaf View Post
    Let me save you the drama. The parking of the older 320s were announced before Covid. Drama Llama
    That only means more furloughs, because there are quite a few 320’s that are not coming back, so 50% of the new fleet size, will require less than 7,000(active) pilots. Let’s hope by October demand is at least 50%. If not I would recommend to look the DOH of the guys in the 50%. That’s real drama! But everyone will have to wait.
    At least United was honest, and told their guys “we only need 2,000 pilots.” Welcome to the Big Leagues...the drama doesn’t start until October...get good popcorn. You will need it. Like Beagleboy said “pilots should not assume the worst is over”...this hasn’t even started. Hope you never have to open and explain to your family a furlough letter, or wait another 10 years to flow...they both sucks! Time will tell how this compares to 9/11.

    It’s time...

    ‘I heard you paint houses.’
    Last edited by NoOtPilot; 05-09-2020 at 10:09 AM.

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    Super Moderator Cujo665's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Meatloaf View Post
    A buddy of mine is over there. He says they do not train in seniority order or inverse order. His words, "No rhyme or reason to it" He also said they don't put out a flowplan.
    For a seniority based system, that is ridiculous.

    Quote Originally Posted by Meatloaf View Post
    He said these guys are still on the seniority list to protect them from just that. If the company tried to pull the rug out from them, they could choose to come back. More training for the company.
    That was some good language writing by the APA.
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