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Thread: AA parking half the fleet

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    AA parking half the fleet


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    AA to park 450 aircraft.
    130 of 150 wide bodies
    Rest will be narrow bodies.
    Total aircraft is around 925.

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    Not all of them are coming back.😞

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    767s gone
    757s gone
    Early 777s gone
    190s gone

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    Donít forget, 45 old 737ís

    13 pilots x plane. Hope lots of pilots take that LOA.
    Guess will find out next Monday.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...next-two-years
    Last edited by NoOtPilot; 03-19-2020 at 08:34 PM.

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    All is well. The wily Tiger assures all the flow will start back up in full force when hiring resumes. The question is when?

    I think he’s going to have switch from single malt to Old Razor Blade for quite a while.

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    I thought the had recently said 190s now staying?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sirsnacksalot View Post
    I thought the had recently said 190s now staying?
    That was before the the world fell apart. Now all bets are off and it's just about preservation. Almost 6 thousand pilots will need to be deferred. The early retirement could be a good deal as even with the loss of 30 pay hours a month the wide body pilots will still be getting maximum contributions to their 401k. Those pilots are also in the highest risk group with the virus. This allows them to reduce there exposure.

    My prediction, off the top of my head is:
    200-300 Senior Pilots take the early retirement.
    500 will take Short Term Leave
    100 will take Long Term Leave
    Now the morbid part:
    10-15% of current AA pilots will catch the virus ~1600.
    Current fatal rate is 4% ~64
    Serious Complications will cause 1% to not be able to have a medical reissued ~16

    Using NoOtPilots 13 per Aircraft thats 5850 pilots that won't be needed temporarily and ~940 voluntarily gone. That's still 5000 pilots. If your seniority is <11,000 then you might want to hedge you bet and bid for the Short term leave with a pay rate of 55 hours to ensure your income for 6 months.

    The question is how quickly do we recover after we survive the pandemic. Trump administration is predicting possible 20% unemployment when all is said and done.

    Scary times.
    Keep safe and stay well

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    WELL DONE JdFlyer the way I read it is anybody hired or flowed to AA within the last 6 years, seniority 11,300+ is at risk of getting furloughed. Is my opinion that AA will be slightly bigger than pre-merger size, 9,700(Active) pilots + management. That was their plan all alone, they were just waiting to have all contracts signed this year before showing their true colors and present the actual fleet plan. This virus all it did was fast forward this company into 2021 & thereafter. But at this point, I donít see a furlough. A furlough this early into this reality game is not cost effective, and they know in two or three months they will be restarting again. So my advice would be letís hang tight, this game is not over yet. Letís not forget it is the same playbook, just a different version of the original 9/11.
    Attachment 1041 3A235D87-C220-4935-8467-3BC2D13C3F14.jpeg
    Last edited by NoOtPilot; 03-20-2020 at 04:59 AM.

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    Don’t have the exact numbers, but last info I looked at had seniority list over 15,000 by number, but active is in the low 13,000 range. The virus likely won’t peak for another 6 weeks or so depending on testing, so losses like this will continue for at least twice that. If one looks at the likely math alone, present bailouts won’t be enough. AA will need more and become even more debt laden in the process.

    Will any bailouts require no future bankruptcy filing? I’ll bet not. After all is said and done, bailouts will make a bankruptcy reorganization even more desirable for AA and many of the parked aircraft won’t come back to AA. But, investors will look at a reorganized AA differently when new NextGen small jets are acquired for a redesigned Eagle system (also in Chapter 11) and flown for peanuts comparably. The bankruptcy will involve all the unions as part of the systemic reorganization on how the future fleet revitalization occurs involving several hundred 100-seaters and for pilots, who bids for and flies them for those comparable peanut rates below present AA Group 1. Even in Chapter 11, APA will likely have the most leverage for jobs as they will be seen as having the most career job losses, but for the very junior at AA, it means a whole new world for many years is likely before getting back to the bottom of Group 2 at AA.

    This is the most likely scenario IMO.
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 03-20-2020 at 07:31 AM.

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    Couple small notes. Yes 757’s are going but not until 2021, subject to change.
    Next, if you take a leave and would have been furloughed your LOA is cancelled. Only real incentive to take a LOA if you are junior is to look for work.
    I did not think they would furlough, but as time has gone on it looks like they may have to do it. But the problem with furloughing is we still about 90 per month retiring. Next add in pilots out with the virus AND/OR pilots exposed to the virus that will be out of work for at least two weeks minimum. Today’s news was starting to say that a person can be infected for up to 19 days.
    Problem since NB fleet is usually junior they can not just wack 5000 pilots and expect run the airline.

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    Mandatory Age 65 retirements at AA:

    12/31/20 - 580
    12/31/21 - 777
    12/31/22 - 820

    Total - 2177

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    13-15 per plane was pre 117. It’s closer to 20 per plane at most currently. 18 if they schedule aggressively.
    _______________________________________________

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    Quote Originally Posted by Earl View Post
    Couple small notes. Yes 757’s are going but not until 2021, subject to change.
    Next, if you take a leave and would have been furloughed your LOA is cancelled. Only real incentive to take a LOA if you are junior is to look for work.
    I did not think they would furlough, but as time has gone on it looks like they may have to do it. But the problem with furloughing is we still about 90 per month retiring. Next add in pilots out with the virus AND/OR pilots exposed to the virus that will be out of work for at least two weeks minimum. Today’s news was starting to say that a person can be infected for up to 19 days.
    Problem since NB fleet is usually junior they can not just wack 5000 pilots and expect run the airline.
    Valid points. I made no mention of furlough numbers because that is still a wildcard. Depends not only on continued virus impact, but on how fast and systematically they draw down fleets. Any furloughs would be in waves and that could stop at various points for uneven periods. Situation very fluid, but it’s likely to get worse before it stabilizes, let alone gets better.

    But, AA will be a different airline in the end. How different and how fast remains to be seen. Those who have taken their savings accounts seriously over the last few years will be in better shape than those who thought AA was a place you can party like it’s 1999.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    Valid points. I made no mention of furlough numbers because that is still a wildcard. Depends not only on continued virus impact, but on how fast and systematically they draw down fleets. Any furloughs would be in waves and that could stop at various points for uneven periods. Situation very fluid, but it’s likely to get worse before it stabilizes, let alone gets better.

    But, AA will be a different airline in the end. How different and how fast remains to be seen. Those who have taken their savings accounts seriously over the last few years will be in better shape than those who thought AA was a place you can party like it’s 1999.
    Not surprising. Just more blather from a TOTALLY slathered out dude that mirrors Joe Biden in that he doesn't know what day and time it is, much less where he is and what is going on behind the scenes.

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    Overly optimistic view on AA IMO:

    The depth of the COVID-19 crisis is unknown, but it is worse than 911. This is the worst pandemic in the history of the world. However, the government at all levels, federal, state, and local at taking tough mitigation steps. I believe the only way the virus will be contained is with a significant quarantine and then capitalism, with American Airlines (AA) the likely world-wide industry leader..

    Fact #1: Reuters reported today, "The Trump administration on Wednesday asked Congress to approve $500 billion in cash payments to taxpayers in two rounds that would start April 6and $50 billion in secured loans to U.S. airlines to address the financial impact of the coronavirus, according to a document seen by Reuters."

    Fact #2: "President Trump held a call with the chief executives of Delta Air Lines, American Airlines, United Airlines and other carriers on Wednesday. A spokeswoman for Senator Richard Shelby, a Republican who chairs the Appropriations Committee, said he believes the "best way to help the airlines weather this storm is to provide liquidity through collateralized lending." Trump "told the airlines that they are an essential part of our daily lives and our economy, and this nation will be there to support them," the White House said. Airlines would be required to set limits on executive compensation until the loans were repaid and would also have to agree to continue service. Airlines also signaled in a call on Tuesday with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi that they would agree not to use emergency loans for stock buybacks, sources briefed on the call said."

    Fact #3: Doug Parker told a colleague of ours today he is "very satisfied" with the proposed federal government airline aid package. Doug indicated AA and its wholly owned subsidiaries will survive, but many other airlines will not.

    Fact #4: On Sunday, March 15, 2020, APA President CA Eric Ferguson said on the union's Information Hotline, "On a related note, I know the possibility of a furlough is on many of your minds. I can tell you that at this point, the likelihood of a furlough has not been suggested by either side. If that changes, we will let you know immediately. One of the main objectives of the LOA ratified today is to mitigate that threat. At this point, it is too early to tell if we are headed down that path, but understand that stopping and reversing the training machinery would be incredibly costly and time-consuming. It is in our mutual interest to avoid reductions by way of furlough.

    Fact #5: On the March 17, 2020 Town Hall, APA Negotiating Committee Chairman John Karam reiterated that AA senior management has not indicated they will furlough pilots.

    Fact #6: Last night, March 17, 2020, Doug Parker told a colleague of ours it his intention to not furlough any employee in the airline.

    Fact #7: AA liquidity: Over $7.31 billion in liquidity – more than any airline in the world.Additionally, AA has $10 billion in unencumbered assets and no large near-term maturities until 2022. AA's liquidity is comprised of unrestricted cash & investments, an undrawn revolver, which does not include the $500 million of funds recently raised (dedicated to pensions).

    Fact #8: AA's 2020 business plan reduced capital expenditures from $5 to $2 billion per year. With this post-merger capex requirement winding down; expected to be much lower starting in 2020, it will support free cash flow generation and de-leveraging.

    Fact #9: AA currently has $10 billion of unencumbered, wholly-owned assets (this figure excludes the AAdvantage program as well as Asia routes/slots/gate), and no large maturities until 2022.

    Fact #10: AA has no material restrictions in credit lines (no MACs), and covenants don't kick in meaningfully until liquidity falls to ~$2 billion.

    Fact #11: AA's "executive suite" noted that back in 2009, old American raised $1bn from Citi through forward mileage sales back when the program was 1/3 the current size, implying significant liquidity "potential" if you will from its credit card partners to the extent the virus situation lingers.

    Fact #12: JP Morgan Airline Analyst Jaime Baker told investors, "$500 million "recently raised" from recent unsecured note offering, initially earmarked for pensions. Note that AAL CFO Derek Kerr stated, "The $500 million is set aside to go in this quarter, but we'll -- we have the ability to look at that as we move forward," suggesting it may be available as liquidity should the need arise versus covering the disclosed 2020 minimum pension payment of $193 million and contribution beyond the minimum required."

    Fact #13: Baker continued, "(AA has) up to $3 billion from potential "forward milage sales" (based on CEO Parker's disclosure of $1 billion cash generated in 2009). Mr Parker stated, "…basically (AA) sold forward miles to see to the tune of about $1 billion of cash inflow. The program today is about 3x the size as it was in 2009."

    Fact #14: AMR's Chapter 11 Plan of Reorganization (POR) and Disclosure Statement provided for the merged business entity to replace 500 of about 1000 mainline aircraft with new Boeing and Airbus aircraft. In addition, AA's wholly owned airlines are protected by the parent. This will protect mainline feed with Envoy, PSA, and Piedmont having one of the youngest RJ fleets in the world. Other major airline business plans use "fee for service" non wholly owned feed and I believe many of these RJ operators will go out of business.

    Fact #15: At today's Piedmont Airlines Captain Upgrade Training, former US Airways VP of Flight Operations and Piedmont president Lyle Hogg told the pilots, AA's wholly-owned subsidiary is going to continue hiring pilots, flying will continue and be adjusted to meet market demands, and there will be no pilot furloughs.

    Hogg continued AA's business plan of building the largest airline cash position in the world with low cost debt was intentional to prepare the company for another 911 type "shock event."

    Fact #16: AA's wholly owned airlines are continuing pilot hiring. Piedmont Airlines will hold its next next new hire Pilot Cadet Orientation class at the CLT Flight Training Center, this Monday, March 23, 2020.

    Fact #17: Delta Air Lines - Delta is cutting 70% of its capacity and 80% of its international operations. Delta will accelerate the retirement most of its B767s and MD-88s and MD-90s. The company is reducing maintenance spending for anything that is not necessary “to support the safety of our operation." The company will park at least half of its fleet, more than 600 aircraft, and just five days ago the airline said it would downsize its flight schedule by 40% and ground 300 planes.

    Fact #18: United Airlines - United is decreasing international flights by 85% and 42% of domestic flights and to Canada will be scrapped. That's 60% of its capacity. In a discussion Tuesday with investors, United President Scott Kirby said he could not rule out furloughs. “My personal No. 1 objective, and all of our No. 1 objectives as we’re going through this, is to make sure we take whatever steps are required for United to survive,” he said Tuesday at the J.P. Morgan Industrials Conference. “My second objective is to do so without involuntarily furloughing anyone. But that is the second objective. And if it takes hard stuff with the employees to get to objective No. 1 of making sure we survive, we won’t hesitate to do it. I’ll be sick to stomach, we’ll feel awful. But our No. 1 objective will be to make sure we get through to the other side.”

    Chip's conclusions: The facts above clearly indicate AA management's foresight in building a huge cash position relative to its peers, financing the airline with low interest debt that could be renegotiated to more favorable terms, creating the youngest, and most fuel efficient post merger fleet for any large U.S. airline. The company has indicated there will most likely be no pilot furloughs (presumably most other employees too).

    Meanwhile, a very bright colleague of ours compared American, Delta and United's fleet replacement program to a stock car race. American elected to enter the "pits" to replace its fleet 5 years ago spending about $30 billion much like a stock car gets new tires and fuel. Delta and United elected to not enter the "pits" and delayed their fleet renewal programs. AA's leading competitors paid their stockholders massive dividends, issued major stock buy back programs, and paid their employees handsome profit sharing. American elected to build its balance sheet and invest in the company.

    Now Delta is slashing 70% of its flight operations and United is downsizing 60% of its operations, which will likely mean massive signficant pilot and other employee furloughs. Meanwhile, AA's wholly owned subsidiaries are continuing to hire pilots and Doug Parker and APA have said AA as of now has no intention of furloughing pilots.

    How ironic it is that AA was built to whether an industry "shock event." I now firmly believe AA will exit the COVID-19 crisis as the strongest airline in the world. Think about that statement for a minute.

    In conclusion, if any pilot wants to discuss our industry, company, or profession I am available 24/7, 365 days per year to speak on the phone. Either send me a text message at 724-272-5719 or email and we can set a time to discuss our company's current situation.

    Regards,

    Chip Munn

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    Hey Chip, you failed to mention the $10,800,000,000 in AAL stock buybacks.

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    Bravo Slowhand! Nothing like a FACT sheet to show how prepared AA is and its advantageous position. You still won't get these backward guys here to accept it though.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    Not surprising. Just more blather from a TOTALLY slathered out dude that mirrors Joe Biden in that he doesn't know what day and time it is, much less where he is and what is going on behind the scenes.
    Not surprising either. Just another pointless post bankrupt of substance from a delusional compulsive fistaholic.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SlowHand View Post
    Hey Chip, you failed to mention the $10,800,000,000 in AAL stock buybacks.

    Munn’s biases are WELL known and thus is a VERY questionable source. The fact is there ARE no facts beyond what has been announced now and Munn’s “facts” are simply (and clearly) to support HIS narrative, which is simply another opinion. Nothing more. But more specifically:

    A. The first 6 “facts” are simply assumptive statements of various parties that offer nothing of certainty about the future situation.
    B. Fact 7 is misleading considering AA’s debt.
    C. Fact 8 is a business plan that is now out the window. AA’s debt only skyrockets from here while their liquidity plummets even with financial assistance.
    D. Fact 9 is misleading as these unencumbered assets will almost certainly be used as collateral for Government assistance then being no longer “unencumbered”. Talk about a “leveraged” airline? Hooo boy...
    E. Fact 10 is an overly optimistic metric. Liquidity is likely to fall to at or below that level unless Chapter 11 happens first. The only assistance AA is likely to get is Governmental, not the private sector like banks.
    F. Facts 11-13 are more assumptions and opinions (see A.)
    G. Fact 14 no longer has any validity under the circumstances.
    H. Fact 15 and 16 are irrelevant nonsense (see A. and F.).
    I. Facts 17 and 18 are indeed fact (at least at time of Munn’s opinions), but offer no information of anything germane to AA’s specific situation.

    I don’t know what his motive is, but his opinions and assumptions are full of holes, but that’s just MY opinion. AA WILL survive again, in my opinion, but it will be a different airline. As Doug has said and will say again, “The world has changed”. This time, he would be right. As always...

    Caveat Emptor. Buy whatever you want including Munn’s “facts” if you want, just beware and as always...

    What’s in your savings account?
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 03-20-2020 at 12:02 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    Bravo Slowhand! Nothing like a FACT sheet to show how prepared AA is and its advantageous position. You still won't get these backward guys here to accept it though.

    Reviewing our opposing position’s of AA on this forum over the last couple of years would be a good idea. One of us has clearly out estimated the other and it ain’t you. If anyone is “backward” here, it’s you.

    Upside down, as well.

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