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Thread: ALPA Fact about Envoy Flow.

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    ALPA Fact about Envoy Flow.


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    If we are to assume that the seniority list will remain stable at 2400, this is how the formula will work:
    480 Pilots = 5 flows....
    ~ALPA~
    January 31, 2021

    assumption vs facts

    Fact:
    480 Pilots = 5 flows

    Assumption: assume that the seniority list will remain stable at 2400
    2400 480 = 1920 pilots remaining
    1920/125 = 15.36 = 15
    15 + 5 = 20

    ⏰⏰⏰⏰
    Last edited by NoOtPilot; 01-31-2020 at 05:29 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NoOtPilot View Post
    If we are to assume that the seniority list will remain stable at 2400, this is how the formula will work:
    480 Pilots = 5 flows....
    ~ALPA~
    January 31, 2021

    assumption vs facts

    Fact:
    480 Pilots = 5 flows

    Assumption: assume that the seniority list will remain stable at 2400
    2400 480 = 1920 pilots remaining
    1920/125 = 15.36 = 15
    15 + 5 = 20

    ⏰⏰⏰⏰
    so 2400 - minus the lifers. Then reduce for attrition. 5 years doesn't seem to work but 9 years is too high. Cujo?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Meatloaf View Post
    so 2400 - minus the lifers. Then reduce for attrition. 5 years doesn't seem to work but 9 years is too high. Cujo?
    Yep. Fuzzy math. Currently a little over 6 for new hires but I expect that to drop significantly when flow is increased.

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    The last new E75(15) will be delivered from the factory, this year, 3 per month starting in February 2020, there are no more deliveries for Envoy thereafter. The next move is closing all NY bases & parking the 140s & 145s, just like they recently did with the CRJs. Even with compass planes Envoy is heading to be a 1,500 pilots airline, including management on the seniority list. Now, do the math and let me know if you want the chart, courtesy of AAG. Its obvious the new ALPA leadership is already helping management. Its obvious you are not helping recruitment Dept. at all. You hurt them more every day you open you mouth. They also would like to see you retire.

    Just facts...do you have any?
    Last edited by NoOtPilot; 02-01-2020 at 11:24 AM.

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    Two situations appear obvious; First, the small Embraer’s are getting close to their useful life limit and will need to be replaced. Second, AAG is essentially broke when it comes to significant aircraft acquisition. Even, if they did have the money, large RJ’s are significantly scope-limited considering the present and future state of AA’s narrow body mainline fleet and new 50-seaters like the 550 aren’t a very good option for ROI. That means the fleet transition will have to be outside the WO’s who will have to finance their own aircraft.

    Actually, it’s the more likely future process. First, in order to survive and be a player, they need a stable contract and a new, stable contract can feed a loan. The Skywest deal is only the start. Other non-WO carriers will likely get in on smaller RJ ops in the future. This all assumes there is no recession in the next few years leading AA to the Courthouse. Then, all bets are off and that’s when Envoy could really be something with even larger aircraft like the E2 series or A220.

    That would be disastrous for junior AA flows though as much of present Group II at AA transitions to the Eagle system to likely include Envoy. The value of AA’s “massive retirements” would instantaneously vaporize and on too of being a bankruptcy lifestyle (soon to be a double-dipper), stagnation would be the worst in the industry for years.
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 02-01-2020 at 11:35 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Meatloaf View Post
    so 2400 - minus the lifers. Then reduce for attrition. 5 years doesn't seem to work but 9 years is too high. Cujo?
    I said long ago that their projection probably isn't far off. I think it’s 6 years, not 5. Short term it may hit 6.5-7 years but will come right back down.
    I also think you won’t need more than completing probation to go to any of the good majors and ACMI’s
    2-4 years will be legacy material. Waiting 5-6 will only be needed by those without degrees, couldn’t get AA through the front door, or just didn’t try and were content to sweat it out waiting to flow.
    Last edited by Cujo665; 02-02-2020 at 03:23 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cujo665 View Post
    I said long ago that their projection probably isn't far off. I think it’s 6 years, not 5. Short term it may hit 6.5-7 years but will come right back down.
    I also think you won’t need more than completing probation to go to any of the good majors and ACMI’s
    2-4 years will be legacy material. Waiting 5-6 will only be needed by those without degrees, couldn’t get AA through the front door, or just didn’t try and were content to sweat it out waiting to flow.
    agreed

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    Two situations appear obvious; First, the small Embraer’s are getting close to their useful life limit and will need to be replaced. Second, AAG is essentially broke when it comes to significant aircraft acquisition. Even, if they did have the money, large RJ’s are significantly scope-limited considering the present and future state of AA’s narrow body mainline fleet and new 50-seaters like the 550 aren’t a very good option for ROI. That means the fleet transition will have to be outside the WO’s who will have to finance their own aircraft.

    Actually, it’s the more likely future process. First, in order to survive and be a player, they need a stable contract and a new, stable contract can feed a loan. The Skywest deal is only the start. Other non-WO carriers will likely get in on smaller RJ ops in the future. This all assumes there is no recession in the next few years leading AA to the Courthouse. Then, all bets are off and that’s when Envoy could really be something with even larger aircraft like the E2 series or A220.

    That would be disastrous for junior AA flows though as much of present Group II at AA transitions to the Eagle system to likely include Envoy. The value of AA’s “massive retirements” would instantaneously vaporize and on too of being a bankruptcy lifestyle (soon to be a double-dipper), stagnation would be the worst in the industry for years.
    Show me on this doll where the big bad Envoy hurt you.

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    This koolaid junior really does not get it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    Show me on this doll where the big bad Envoy hurt you.
    What doll? How can a company I never worked for hurt me? Did United ban you from jump seating on them for your little profanity-laced tirade last month?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    What doll? How can a company I never worked for hurt me? Did United ban you from jump seating on them for your little profanity-laced tirade last month?
    Please share

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    What doll? How can a company I never worked for hurt me? Did United ban you from jump seating on them for your little profanity-laced tirade last month?
    The hilarious thing about this is that you would never qualify to be hired at Envoy today. You're just lucky you had some buddy at the "old Eagle" who got you in with your C210 time and lousy resume.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    What doll? How can a company I never worked for hurt me? Did United ban you from jump seating on them for your little profanity-laced tirade last month?
    Details please. Mr. **** for Brains should be banned from everyone.

    Ps. If youre on the 175 watch out for some drunk freak j@&$ing off in your jumpseat.

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    He really is a jackazz.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    Show me on this doll where the big bad Envoy hurt you.
    At least two of your APC accounts has used this exact phrase.
    Youre pathetic.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sloosky View Post
    Please share
    Well, I just heard through the grapevine that our resident imbecile made a jackass out of himself jump seating on a United flight like he does here (and over on APC) and got tossed for inappropriate behavior in front of the passengers and hey, let's face it, it fits his M.O. perfectly. He will deny it, no doubt, but we also know him to be a liar even by his own admission, so it adds up.
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 02-04-2020 at 01:08 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    The hilarious thing about this is that you would never qualify to be hired at Envoy today. You're just lucky you had some buddy at the "old Eagle" who got you in with your C210 time and lousy resume.
    Are you kidding? Considering some of the pilot's Envoy has hired I've heard about here and elsewhere needing 50 hours of IOE or bounced, I have no concerns I couldn't be hired by Envoy today with no issues. BTW, that's a laughable assertion considering YOUR history of busted checkrides. As for my resume, you know nothing about it, so that comment is as usual, baseless. As for getting hired at Eagle, on that one you guessed correctly, I DID have a recommendation and performed well for well over 2 decades. As for the C210, I never flew it, but I hear it's a good workhorse.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sirsnacksalot View Post
    At least two of your APC accounts has used this exact phrase.
    You’re pathetic.
    An exercise he learned during his own therapy sessions?

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    Compass Project Update:

    February 18, 2020 Class 20-04

    00 Envoy
    05 PSA
    31 MIL
    00 Corporate
    06 Piedmont
    11 Other Airline

    (Numbers may sum greater than the total due to pilots with multiple flavors of background experience)

    03 LGA/737/D
    09 LGA/320/D
    13 MIA/320/I
    04 PHX/320/I
    18 MIA/737/I

    Total to date: 226
    Glideslope: 240
    2020 Plan: 1500 max

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