Results 1 to 19 of 19

Thread: Flow

  1. #1
    Super Moderator Cujo665's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Company
    A great one
    Base
    Home Based
    Job
    Pilot
    A/C Flown
    SF340, E145, B767
    Posts
    2,249
    Level
    100
    Points: 35,767, Level: 100
    Overall activity: 99.9%
    Achievements:
    OverdriveVeteran25000 Experience PointsSocial
    Awards:
    Arm of Law
    Thumbs Up/Down
    Received: 370/50
    Given: 75/9

    Ignore User

    Flow


    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    In 2014 & 2015 when the company promoted their 5/2.5 flow/upgrade I stated that it actually could work and was a valid projection.

    My opinion was based upon Eaglevoy having a flow at the rate of 50% of all new hire AA positions. That the retirements at AA alone would move our entire list over within that five years. The flow slows down after that and is not 50% anymore; it’s just a fixed number, which is a slower flow than before.

    However, here we are coming up on five years later and they just recently flowed the 2,000th pilot from Eaglevoy. At the time we were down to 1850 pilots.

    The projections made by the company - and supported by me - have proven to be correct.

    https://www.envoyair.com/2019/12/06/...ican-airlines/
    __________________________________________________ __

  2. #2
    Registered User Dacuj's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2017
    Posts
    971
    Level
    87
    Points: 19,203, Level: 87
    Overall activity: 40.0%
    Achievements:
    Overdrive10000 Experience PointsVeteran
    Thumbs Up/Down
    Received: 15/170
    Given: 0/5

    Ignore User

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    Quote Originally Posted by Cujo665 View Post
    In 2014 & 2015 when the company promoted their 5/2.5 flow/upgrade I stated that it actually could work and was a valid projection.

    My opinion was based upon Eaglevoy having a flow at the rate of 50% of all new hire AA positions. That the retirements at AA alone would move our entire list over within that five years. The flow slows down after that and is not 50% anymore; it’s just a fixed number, which is a slower flow than before.

    However, here we are coming up on five years later and they just recently flowed the 2,000th pilot from Eaglevoy. At the time we were down to 1850 pilots.

    The projections made by the company - and supported by me - have proven to be correct.

    https://www.envoyair.com/2019/12/06/...ican-airlines/
    Yep. Company proven right. 2.5/6 baby! Love to have you back selling Envoy and the flow. We would make a superior team.

  3. #3
    Registered User ardvark's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    5,010
    Level
    100
    Points: 31,739, Level: 100
    Overall activity: 24.0%
    Achievements:
    OverdriveVeteran25000 Experience Points
    Thumbs Up/Down
    Received: 570/36
    Given: 589/14

    Ignore User

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    You said your not posting on this website again and you moved over to apc. As proven before you cannot tell the truth or abide by what you state.

  4. #4
    Super Moderator Cujo665's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Company
    A great one
    Base
    Home Based
    Job
    Pilot
    A/C Flown
    SF340, E145, B767
    Posts
    2,249
    Level
    100
    Points: 35,767, Level: 100
    Overall activity: 99.9%
    Achievements:
    OverdriveVeteran25000 Experience PointsSocial
    Awards:
    Arm of Law
    Thumbs Up/Down
    Received: 370/50
    Given: 75/9

    Ignore User

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    Yep. Company proven right. 2.5/6 baby! Love to have you back selling Envoy and the flow. We would make a superior team.
    I’ve never been anti-Envoy.... very much the opposite.

    I’ve been anti abusive management practices, many of which still remain.
    __________________________________________________ __

  5. #5
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Company
    DeathStar
    Base
    MIA
    Job
    Drink Coffee, Battle VNAV/FMS, Duolingo Espanol
    A/C Flown
    SF340, E145, 737
    Divorces
    N/A
    Posts
    358
    Level
    52
    Points: 6,504, Level: 52
    Overall activity: 24.0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran5000 Experience Points
    Thumbs Up/Down
    Received: 24/3
    Given: 22/7

    Ignore User

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    This chart from AA indicates less than 50% of New Hires at AA are from Envoy for calendar year 2019.


    8492.jpg

  6. #6
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    3,067
    Level
    73
    Points: 12,689, Level: 73
    Overall activity: 69.0%
    Achievements:
    VeteranOverdrive10000 Experience Points
    Thumbs Up/Down
    Received: 209/18
    Given: 66/145

    Ignore User

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    Yep. Company proven right. 2.5/6 baby! Love to have you back selling Envoy and the flow. We would make a superior team.
    What happened to your resignation “effectively immediately”? Are you capable of a single statement or act of validity? If you were just drunk again when you made that post, it would explain why you have forgotten about it in less than 24 hours.

  7. #7
    Super Moderator Cujo665's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Company
    A great one
    Base
    Home Based
    Job
    Pilot
    A/C Flown
    SF340, E145, B767
    Posts
    2,249
    Level
    100
    Points: 35,767, Level: 100
    Overall activity: 99.9%
    Achievements:
    OverdriveVeteran25000 Experience PointsSocial
    Awards:
    Arm of Law
    Thumbs Up/Down
    Received: 370/50
    Given: 75/9

    Ignore User

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    Quote Originally Posted by SlowHand View Post
    This chart from AA indicates less than 50% of New Hires at AA are from Envoy for calendar year 2019.


    8492.jpg
    Yep, as I’ve previously stated... the old flow at 50% and the retirement numbers could (and did) move the entire list over in under 6 years.

    I’ve also said - and it’s unchanged - that at the reduced flow rate and much larger pilot group the continued selling of 5.5 years is false advertising. It will hit 5 years then start keeping back up.

    They’ll have to increase flow or start telling the truth... that they lied.

  8. #8
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    3,067
    Level
    73
    Points: 12,689, Level: 73
    Overall activity: 69.0%
    Achievements:
    VeteranOverdrive10000 Experience Points
    Thumbs Up/Down
    Received: 209/18
    Given: 66/145

    Ignore User

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    Quote Originally Posted by Cujo665 View Post
    Yep, as I’ve previously stated... the old flow at 50% and the retirement numbers could (and did) move the entire list over in under 6 years.

    I’ve also said - and it’s unchanged - that at the reduced flow rate and much larger pilot group the continued selling of 5.5 years is false advertising. It will hit 5 years then start keeping back up.

    They’ll have to increase flow or start telling the truth... that they lied.
    Most Letter 3 pilots took upwards of 11-12 years to flow. The promise back then was 5 years, but that too turned out to be false.

  9. #9
    Super Moderator Cujo665's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Company
    A great one
    Base
    Home Based
    Job
    Pilot
    A/C Flown
    SF340, E145, B767
    Posts
    2,249
    Level
    100
    Points: 35,767, Level: 100
    Overall activity: 99.9%
    Achievements:
    OverdriveVeteran25000 Experience PointsSocial
    Awards:
    Arm of Law
    Thumbs Up/Down
    Received: 370/50
    Given: 75/9

    Ignore User

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    Most Letter 3 pilots took upwards of 11-12 years to flow. The promise back then was 5 years, but that too turned out to be false.
    yep, when hiring stops, so does flow..... people don’t seem to understand that. Although, barring a global disaster triggering massive contraction the retirements will keep the flow going.
    __________________________________________________ __

  10. #10
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    3,067
    Level
    73
    Points: 12,689, Level: 73
    Overall activity: 69.0%
    Achievements:
    VeteranOverdrive10000 Experience Points
    Thumbs Up/Down
    Received: 209/18
    Given: 66/145

    Ignore User

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    Quote Originally Posted by Cujo665 View Post
    yep, when hiring stops, so does flow..... people don’t seem to understand that. Although, barring a global disaster triggering massive contraction the retirements will keep the flow going.
    Disagree on the requirement of a “global disaster” impacting the AA flow. IMO, any number of less catastrophic situations could easily negatively impact that including, but not limited to scope relaxation which could easily result in a reduction in mainline operations and transfer of significant portions of flying back to the regional level or a “new entrant carrier” as a result of a spin off of the WO Eagle system or parts thereof. This could either be accomplished by agreement (unlikely) or strategic bankruptcy (again). Another possibility is the inability of the Eagle system to part with pilots due to it crippling their own allocated flying demands.

    IIRC, there will be a “breather” when the flow drops to what is it.........a 15 pilot/month metric in the case of Envoy? Point being, I think it’s overly optimistic to assume AA retirement schedule and present hiring needs are bulletproof from all but the most disastrous developments. AA said they will hire something like 1100 pilots next year (1300 at Delta) and Envoy would only get a small fraction of that should all occur as assumed. I think Envoy’s outside attrition will spike though still putting it in an uncomfortable pilot staffing situation. Now, should the economy fall into a recession in the next year or two........well, considering AA’s financials, then there’s your catastrophe, at least for AA and the flow as that would likely trigger a Chapter 11 and the scope scenario. In that case, I see a major reduction in AA mainline domestic being taken over by E-190/195 or A220 type ops in the Eagle system or NEC. Baaaaad for those junior at AA as stagnation for those toiling at the bottom, but perhaps offer of transfer back to the sub-contracted Group I ops.

  11. #11
    Registered User NoOtPilot's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    2,226
    Level
    100
    Points: 82,965, Level: 100
    Overall activity: 99.7%
    Achievements:
    OverdriveSocialVeteran50000 Experience Points
    Awards:
    DownloadsPosting Award
    Thumbs Up/Down
    Received: 137/37
    Given: 0/0

    Ignore User

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    Disagree on the requirement of a “global disaster” impacting the AA flow. IMO, any number of less catastrophic situations could easily negatively impact that including, but not limited to scope relaxation which could easily result in a reduction in mainline operations and transfer of significant portions of flying back to the regional level or a “new entrant carrier” as a result of a spin off of the WO Eagle system or parts thereof. This could either be accomplished by agreement (unlikely) or strategic bankruptcy (again). Another possibility is the inability of the Eagle system to part with pilots due to it crippling their own allocated flying demands.

    IIRC, there will be a “breather” when the flow drops to what is it.........a 15 pilot/month metric in the case of Envoy? Point being, I think it’s overly optimistic to assume AA retirement schedule and present hiring needs are bulletproof from all but the most disastrous developments. AA said they will hire something like 1100 pilots next year (1300 at Delta) and Envoy would only get a small fraction of that should all occur as assumed. I think Envoy’s outside attrition will spike though still putting it in an uncomfortable pilot staffing situation. Now, should the economy fall into a recession in the next year or two........well, considering AA’s financials, then there’s your catastrophe, at least for AA and the flow as that would likely trigger a Chapter 11 and the scope scenario. In that case, I see a major reduction in AA mainline domestic being taken over by E-190/195 or A220 type ops in the Eagle system or NEC. Baaaaad for those junior at AA as stagnation for those toiling at the bottom, but perhaps offer of transfer back to the sub-contracted Group I ops.
    “I see a major reduction in AA mainline...”
    ~Beagleboy~

    Me too...but for now is (SEC BLOCKED INFO)🤣🤣🤣 ⏰ ⏰ ⏰ 🎊 🎉 🎊

    Fillings from 2019 and other years:

    ...the company expects to take delivery of 30 mainline aircraft...
    The company also expects to retire 37 mainline aircraft...

    ...the company expects to take delivery of 41 mainline aircraft...
    The company also expects to retire 45 mainline aircraft...

    ...the Company expects to take delivery of 55 mainline aircraft...
    The Company expects to retire 71 mainline aircraft...

    Pilots Retirements & Deliveries is only half the equation...

    “Get ALL the facts, not just HALF the facts.”
    Last edited by NoOtPilot; 12-12-2019 at 05:58 PM.

  12. #12
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Company
    Eagle
    Base
    ORD
    A/C Flown
    Jungle Jet
    Posts
    559
    Level
    78
    Points: 14,617, Level: 78
    Overall activity: 0%
    Achievements:
    OverdriveVeteran10000 Experience Points
    Thumbs Up/Down
    Received: 41/6
    Given: 5/1

    Ignore User

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    35.4% of new hires at AA are Envoy flows for 2019. 2020 will be a bit less

  13. #13
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Posts
    143
    Level
    49
    Points: 5,908, Level: 49
    Overall activity: 0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran5000 Experience Points
    Thumbs Up/Down
    Received: 4/6
    Given: 15/18

    Ignore User

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    Quote Originally Posted by NoOtPilot View Post
    “I see a major reduction in AA mainline...”
    ~Beagleboy~

    Me too...but for now is (SEC BLOCKED INFO)藍藍藍 ⏰ ⏰ ⏰   

    Fillings from 2019 and other years:

    ...the company expects to take delivery of 30 mainline aircraft...
    The company also expects to retire 37 mainline aircraft...

    ...the company expects to take delivery of 41 mainline aircraft...
    The company also expects to retire 45 mainline aircraft...

    ...the Company expects to take delivery of 55 mainline aircraft...
    The Company expects to retire 71 mainline aircraft...

    Pilots Retirements & Deliveries is only half the equation...

    Get ALL the facts, not just HALF the facts.
    You aren't giving us facts. You're just shouting from the mountain tops "2021! 2021!" With absolutely nothing else to substantiate your claim of this huge 2021 bombshell. You're a close second behind Dacuj in the race to being the biggest tool on this forum.

  14. #14
    Registered User NoOtPilot's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    2,226
    Level
    100
    Points: 82,965, Level: 100
    Overall activity: 99.7%
    Achievements:
    OverdriveSocialVeteran50000 Experience Points
    Awards:
    DownloadsPosting Award
    Thumbs Up/Down
    Received: 137/37
    Given: 0/0

    Ignore User

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    Ask Parker to unblock it, and I will post what you want to know.

  15. #15
    Super Moderator Cujo665's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Company
    A great one
    Base
    Home Based
    Job
    Pilot
    A/C Flown
    SF340, E145, B767
    Posts
    2,249
    Level
    100
    Points: 35,767, Level: 100
    Overall activity: 99.9%
    Achievements:
    OverdriveVeteran25000 Experience PointsSocial
    Awards:
    Arm of Law
    Thumbs Up/Down
    Received: 370/50
    Given: 75/9

    Ignore User

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    Quote Originally Posted by NoOtPilot View Post
    Ask Parker to unblock it, and I will post what you want to know.
    can’t
    it would be an SEC no no of the first order......

    it is however, indicative of a situation ripe for an insider trading problem.
    __________________________________________________ __

  16. #16
    Registered User NoOtPilot's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    2,226
    Level
    100
    Points: 82,965, Level: 100
    Overall activity: 99.7%
    Achievements:
    OverdriveSocialVeteran50000 Experience Points
    Awards:
    DownloadsPosting Award
    Thumbs Up/Down
    Received: 137/37
    Given: 0/0

    Ignore User

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    Quote Originally Posted by Cujo665 View Post
    can’t
    it would be an SEC no no of the first order......

    it is however, indicative of a situation ripe for an insider trading problem.
    Not to mention APA negotiations.

  17. #17
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Company
    DeathStar
    Base
    MIA
    Job
    Drink Coffee, Battle VNAV/FMS, Duolingo Espanol
    A/C Flown
    SF340, E145, 737
    Divorces
    N/A
    Posts
    358
    Level
    52
    Points: 6,504, Level: 52
    Overall activity: 24.0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran5000 Experience Points
    Thumbs Up/Down
    Received: 24/3
    Given: 22/7

    Ignore User

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    FYI

    8744.jpg

    Simulators must be smoken

  18. #18
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    3,067
    Level
    73
    Points: 12,689, Level: 73
    Overall activity: 69.0%
    Achievements:
    VeteranOverdrive10000 Experience Points
    Thumbs Up/Down
    Received: 209/18
    Given: 66/145

    Ignore User

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    Quote Originally Posted by SlowHand View Post
    FYI

    8744.jpg

    Simulators must be smoken
    Not always from what I hear. I've talked to pilots who have had to be pushed into grace months because of a lack of Sim P's or CKA's. Some have gone unqual and others have said they completed the first day's ground school only to be sent home for the aforementioned reasons. IIRC, they are claiming they will hire something like 1300-1500 pilots in 2020 (ostensibly because they know soon qualified pilots will run out for even AA) and I have difficulty seeing how they'll do that considering the present situation. The Eagle system is destined to contract putting further pressure on AA and I think junior pilot attrition will spike at AA as well.

    From my view, it's just another red flag coming up on a road that is virtually nothing but red flags.

  19. #19
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Company
    DeathStar
    Base
    MIA
    Job
    Drink Coffee, Battle VNAV/FMS, Duolingo Espanol
    A/C Flown
    SF340, E145, 737
    Divorces
    N/A
    Posts
    358
    Level
    52
    Points: 6,504, Level: 52
    Overall activity: 24.0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran5000 Experience Points
    Thumbs Up/Down
    Received: 24/3
    Given: 22/7

    Ignore User

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    ^^^^^

    "Where there is Smoke there is Fire"

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •