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Thread: Where We Are Today

  1. #21
    Registered User Dacuj's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sirflyer View Post
    On my yearly visit to this forum, Dacuj once again has spouted his SA. You would think with all his involvement he would realize here at AA he's a nobody. I shut him down last time and it looks like I have to again.
    Oh really? Just how did you "shut me down" last time? And being SA, I think you are solidly aware of the proximity to management and having your finger on the pulse of what's truly happening. It is amazing that a bunch of forum keyboard warriors think they know what's happening.

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    I have no doubt that you have your finger or hand on managements pulse.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ardvark View Post
    I have no doubt that you have your finger or hand on managements pulse.
    No he prefers to go solo with just a pic of a 175.

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    Different strokes for different folks

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    Super Moderator Cujo665's Avatar
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    Debt-to-Equity:
    AAWW - 113%
    DAL - 72%
    FDX - 100%
    UAL - 140%
    UPS - 530%
    AAL - 638%
    __________________________________________________ __

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cujo665 View Post
    Debt-to-Equity:
    AAWW - 113%
    DAL - 72%
    FDX - 100%
    UAL - 140%
    UPS - 530%
    AAL - 638%
    Come on, you know Debt to Equity tells us nothing without knowing about the debt and the amount of interest being paid on the debt.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gonzo View Post
    Come on, you know Debt to Equity tells us nothing without knowing about the debt and the amount of interest being paid on the debt.
    Actually there is critical information just on the raw numbers and it does tell us something. Regardless of where within the entity the debt is or the interest, it tells us that should the long overdue and expected impending economic downturn occur sooner rather then later, AA quickly succumbs to a virtually certain perilous financial position being unable to service that debt. In fact, they’ve already sent just such a message outward if one took notice. That message?

    The recent acquisition of more future debt to make pension payments as opposed to using cash-on-hand depleting liquidity.

    They are betting on another “kick the can” strategy and rationalizing low interest rates as the excuse for doing so. This is one very frail camel from a financial standpoint. IF (and that’s a BIG if) they can indeed kick that can for a few years and claw some of that monstrous debt back, they might make it through the woods without the wolf pouncing, but if it hits in the next 2-3 years, I give them 2 quarters of losses (even mild) before liquidity reaches triggering levels for another engineered Chapter 11 filing. AA has virtually no capacity right now to weather a recession, unlike most of its competition including the 2 premier legacy carriers or competing smaller, but leaner LCC’s.

    Even Parker’s recent moves to bolster confidence among investors has flopped as the stock price continues its overall downward slide. Scraping the barrel for every shard of revenue, borrowing money for large cash outlay’s, intensive stonewalling of new labor contracts, Stock buybacks through the roof, personal repurchasing of stock even and nothing. We’re down to the holding of breath, the crossing of fingers and perhaps even a “dear father in Heaven......” now.

    Now more then ever, Caveat Emptor and what’s in your savings account ?
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 08-25-2019 at 09:36 AM.

  8. #28
    Super Moderator Cujo665's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    Actually there is critical information just on the raw numbers and it does tell us something. Regardless of where within the entity the debt is or the interest, it tells us that should the long overdue and expected impending economic downturn occur sooner rather then later, AA quickly succumbs to a virtually certain perilous financial position being unable to service that debt. In fact, they’ve already sent just such a message outward if one took notice. That message?

    The recent acquisition of more future debt to make pension payments as opposed to using cash-on-hand depleting liquidity.

    They are betting on another “kick the can” strategy and rationalizing low interest rates as the excuse for doing so. This is one very frail camel from a financial standpoint. IF (and that’s a BIG if) they can indeed kick that can for a few years and claw some of that monstrous debt back, they might make it through the woods without the wolf pouncing, but if it hits in the next 2-3 years, I give them 2 quarters of losses (even mild) before liquidity reaches triggering levels for another engineered Chapter 11 filing. AA has virtually no capacity right now to weather a recession, unlike most of its competition including the 2 premier legacy carriers or competing smaller, but leaner LCC’s.

    Even Parker’s recent moves to bolster confidence among investors has flopped as the stock price continues its overall downward slide. Scraping the barrel for every shard of revenue, borrowing money for large cash outlay’s, intensive stonewalling of new labor contracts, Stock buybacks through the roof, personal repurchasing of stock even and nothing. We’re down to the holding of breath, the crossing of fingers and perhaps even a “dear father in Heaven......” now.

    Now more then ever, Caveat Emptor and what’s in your savings account ?
    Bingo

    thanks for explaining it to the less adept among us.....
    __________________________________________________ __

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    Actually there is critical information just on the raw numbers and it does tell us something. Regardless of where within the entity the debt is or the interest, it tells us that should the long overdue and expected impending economic downturn occur sooner rather then later, AA quickly succumbs to a virtually certain perilous financial position being unable to service that debt.
    That isn't how it works, that isn't how any of it works. Looking at the raw numbers UPS at 530% looks like it will be in trouble, but AAWW at 113% will be ok. But once you dig into the numbers, UPS is in much better financial health than AAWW, In fact AAWW might not make it till the end of the year without a trip to BK court.

    So yes AAL is a mess, and I agree they will be back in BK within a few years, but it still doesn't change that DtoE is a meaningless number.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gonzo View Post
    That isn't how it works, that isn't how any of it works. Looking at the raw numbers UPS at 530% looks like it will be in trouble, but AAWW at 113% will be ok. But once you dig into the numbers, UPS is in much better financial health than AAWW, In fact AAWW might not make it till the end of the year without a trip to BK court.

    So yes AAL is a mess, and I agree they will be back in BK within a few years, but it still doesn't change that DtoE is a meaningless number.
    Then we will disagree. You seem to be arguing the financial message of what Cujo describes is incomplete and/or meaningless. Iím saying while incomplete, it is NOT meaningless. Even if your argument is correct, YOUR assertion is meaningless. Why ?

    Because the destination is the same which is something you seem to admit. If thereís anything Envoy and AA pilots should concern themselves with, itís not the minutiae of economics, definitions or cause and effect, itís the likely ultimate destination AA is headed for.

  11. #31
    Registered User Dacuj's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gonzo View Post
    That isn't how it works, that isn't how any of it works. Looking at the raw numbers UPS at 530% looks like it will be in trouble, but AAWW at 113% will be ok. But once you dig into the numbers, UPS is in much better financial health than AAWW, In fact AAWW might not make it till the end of the year without a trip to BK court.

    So yes AAL is a mess, and I agree they will be back in BK within a few years, but it still doesn't change that DtoE is a meaningless number.
    Exactly. That's what these grifters here do. Blow a bunch of smoke and pick some random, meaningless numbers out like above and point to the impending destruction of AA.

  12. #32
    Registered User Dacuj's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    Then we will disagree. You seem to be arguing the financial message of what Cujo describes is incomplete and/or meaningless. I’m saying while incomplete, it is NOT meaningless. Even if your argument is correct, YOUR assertion is meaningless. Why ?

    Because the destination is the same which is something you seem to admit. If there’s anything Envoy and AA pilots should concern themselves with, it’s not the minutiae of economics, definitions or cause and effect, it’s the likely ultimate destination AA is headed for.
    The ultimate destination AA is headed is continued profitability. It's a worldwide recognizable brand and it is currently a profitable company. What does this mean for the folks here at TA? The best place in the world to start your airline career has been and remains Envoy. A wholly owned AAG company that provides a complete career path to one of the largest major airlines in the world. What does Envoy offer? Highest new hire pay in the industry, sign on bonuses, at present 84 175 hulls on property or on the way, world class travel benefits, profit sharing, not to mention the most valuable benefit in the industry.....a seat at AA once your number comes up. No medical, no interview, just a simple transfer to AA.

    Let's bring the dreaming of a few grifters about an AA demise to an end here. It ain't happening.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    Exactly. That's what these grifters here do. Blow a bunch of smoke and pick some random, meaningless numbers out like above and point to the impending destruction of AA.
    Good morning.

    Up to your old (and tired) tricks again I see. Another classic example of Psychological Projection from stem to stern.

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    The ultimate destination AA is headed is continued profitability. It's a worldwide recognizable brand and it is currently a profitable company. What does this mean for the folks here at TA? The best place in the world to start your airline career has been and remains Envoy. A wholly owned AAG company that provides a complete career path to one of the largest major airlines in the world. What does Envoy offer? Highest new hire pay in the industry, sign on bonuses, at present 84 175 hulls on property or on the way, world class travel benefits, profit sharing, not to mention the most valuable benefit in the industry.....a seat at AA once your number comes up. No medical, no interview, just a simple transfer to AA.

    Let's bring the dreaming of a few grifters about an AA demise to an end here. It ain't happening.
    We’ve seen your boilerplate sales pitch before and it offers nothing new. As for the situation at AA, rationalization and denial are no way to go through life, son.

    “Profitability” is a selective concept. Yes, AA is currently profitable (key point there which you admit). But, AA’s profit is staggeringly short of both Parker’s past financial puffery and that required to service their debt at the rate and within the time frame planned. AA SHOULD have plowed their debt number billions of dollars downward by now considering the long overdue economic downturn even they suspect is imminent. AA’s debt hasn’t gone down and the years lost just mean timing will likely collide with their worst fears should that downturn occur in the next few years.

    Yes, they borrowed to make this years pension payments at reasonable rates, but that just adds debt down the road. What happens if next year when a couple of billion more will be required to again fund the pensions and also begin servicing the debt for all the new planes and they are no better off liquidity-wise ? I guess simply get another loan and pile on more future debt. Fine, but what if rates aren’t so good both because of a tighter economic environment coupled with AA’s even higher debt makes lenders nervous ? What if the recession goes into actual play and AA starts barely making a profit, breaking even or encountering losses and they again go begging for loans ?

    Where will a couple of billion for required payments put them ? I suppose they could refinance some of the aircraft loans and you guessed it, kick more debt down the road (further adding debt as this costs money they don’t have right now), but the pensions won’t wait. Hey, I’m just talking getting through 2020, brah. What if 2021 is no better (or even worse) where again, pension and debt servicing is significant ? Economic downturns last several years at a minimum, so one financial hiccup is highly unlikely. Again, from my chair AA (and everything and everyone tethered to it) is at grave risk of slipping under the already swelling water with their financials.

    If I were you, I’d pray economic tailwinds last a good 5 more years, because without it, IMO you are in for crushing disappointment. Good luck and remember..........

    Caveat Emptor and what’s in your savings account ?
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 08-26-2019 at 08:50 AM.

  15. #35
    Registered User Dacuj's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    We’ve seen your boilerplate sales pitch before and it offers nothing new. As for the situation at AA, rationalization and denial are no way to go through life, son.

    “Profitability” is a selective concept. Yes, AA is currently profitable (key point there which you admit). But, AA’s profit is staggeringly short of both Parker’s past financial puffery and that required to service their debt at the rate and within the time frame planned. AA SHOULD have plowed their debt number billions of dollars downward by now considering the long overdue economic downturn even they suspect is imminent. AA’s debt hasn’t gone down and the years lost just mean timing will likely collide with their worst fears should that downturn occur in the next few years.

    Yes, they borrowed to make this years pension payments at reasonable rates, but that just adds debt down the road. What happens if next year when a couple of billion more will be required to again fund the pensions and also begin servicing the debt for all the new planes and they are no better off liquidity-wise ? I guess simply get another loan and pile on more future debt. Fine, but what if rates aren’t so good both because of a tighter economic environment coupled with AA’s even higher debt makes lenders nervous ? What if the recession goes into actual play and AA starts barely making a profit, breaking even or encountering losses and they again go begging for loans ?

    Where will a couple of billion for required payments put them ? I suppose they could refinance some of the aircraft loans and you guessed it, kick more debt down the road (further adding debt as this costs money they don’t have right now), but the pensions won’t wait. Hey, I’m just talking getting through 2020, brah. What if 2021 is no better (or even worse) where again, pension and debt servicing is significant ? Economic downturns last several years at a minimum, so one financial hiccup is highly unlikely. Again, from my chair AA (and everything and everyone tethered to it) is at grave risk of slipping under the already swelling water with their financials.

    If I were you, I’d pray economic tailwinds last a good 5 more years, because without it, IMO you are in for crushing disappointment. Good luck and remember..........

    Caveat Emptor and what’s in your savings account ?
    Profitability a selective concept? Nice try brah. You are either profitable or you are not. American Airlines is profitable. Let me help you out with some 2nd quarter results below.


    • Reported second quarter 2019 pre-tax income of $882 million and net income of $662 million. Excluding net special items, pre-tax income and net income rose more than 5% to $1.1 billion and $810 million,1 respectively.
    • Second quarter earnings were $1.49 per diluted share. Excluding net special items, earnings per share grew 10% year over year to $1.82 per diluted share1.
    • Reported record second quarter revenue of $12 billion. Also reported record second quarter total revenue per available seat mile (TRASM) — the 11th consecutive quarter of TRASM growth.

    Notice anything? Record setting revenue of 12 billion in the 2nd QUARTER ALONE! Also record TRASM as well coming on the heels of 11 consecutive quarters of TRASM growth.
    Dude, you ask for numbers. It don't get no more black and white than this. Your fantasy world of AA filing bankruptcy and the execs being arrested and frog marched in front of the cameras is just that. FANTASY. The financials and overall footing of American are solid and we are well positioned to keep growing while tweaking international and domestic. Which is exactly what they have been doing.

    You are still living in Pleasantville with Don Knotts. You are very old and I understand it's hard to break habits but the new American has arrived and the results and performance speaks for itself. See above.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    Profitability a selective concept? Nice try brah. You are either profitable or you are not. American Airlines is profitable. Let me help you out with some 2nd quarter results below.


    • Reported second quarter 2019 pre-tax income of $882 million and net income of $662 million. Excluding net special items, pre-tax income and net income rose more than 5% to $1.1 billion and $810 million,1 respectively.
    • Second quarter earnings were $1.49 per diluted share. Excluding net special items, earnings per share grew 10% year over year to $1.82 per diluted share1.
    • Reported record second quarter revenue of $12 billion. Also reported record second quarter total revenue per available seat mile (TRASM) — the 11th consecutive quarter of TRASM growth.

    Notice anything? Record setting revenue of 12 billion in the 2nd QUARTER ALONE! Also record TRASM as well coming on the heels of 11 consecutive quarters of TRASM growth.
    Dude, you ask for numbers. It don't get no more black and white than this. Your fantasy world of AA filing bankruptcy and the execs being arrested and frog marched in front of the cameras is just that. FANTASY. The financials and overall footing of American are solid and we are well positioned to keep growing while tweaking international and domestic. Which is exactly what they have been doing.

    You are still living in Pleasantville with Don Knotts. You are very old and I understand it's hard to break habits but the new American has arrived and the results and performance speaks for itself. See above.
    Another common tactic of the grifter; Use snapshots with no historical data to give them substance for comparison in the hope of distracting non-critical thinkers. AA is underperfoming its own assertions by a LARGE margin and under what is arguably the best of economic conditions. The stock has plummted to all time lows while the competition goes in the opposite direction. The product has also plummeted as a result of managements abject failure or willingness to inspire front-line employees as opposed to alienating them. Debt is MONSTROUS compared to the compitition and again, AA is in no position (Z-E-R-O) to withstand an economic downturn without cropping assets and market share further depressing revenue and thus profits or more likely, using the bankruptcy court to once again clean house. If some here want to fall for your B.S., that's their choice.

    As for the above baseless claim I have EVER stated AAG executives would be "arrested and frog marched in front of cameras", it proves you have no qualms about using outright lies in an attempt to prove your empty points. But then again, unlike your fabricated assertion above, we already know you to be a liar as you've freely admitted it yourself. Nice try, but if anyone is a babbling Dotard here, it's you kid.
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 08-26-2019 at 01:03 PM.

  17. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    Profitability a selective concept? Nice try brah. You are either profitable or you are not. American Airlines is profitable. Let me help you out with some 2nd quarter results below.


    • Reported second quarter 2019 pre-tax income of $882 million and net income of $662 million. Excluding net special items, pre-tax income and net income rose more than 5% to $1.1 billion and $810 million,1 respectively.
    • Second quarter earnings were $1.49 per diluted share. Excluding net special items, earnings per share grew 10% year over year to $1.82 per diluted share1.
    • Reported record second quarter revenue of $12 billion. Also reported record second quarter total revenue per available seat mile (TRASM) — the 11th consecutive quarter of TRASM growth.

    Notice anything? Record setting revenue of 12 billion in the 2nd QUARTER ALONE! Also record TRASM as well coming on the heels of 11 consecutive quarters of TRASM growth.
    Dude, you ask for numbers. It don't get no more black and white than this. Your fantasy world of AA filing bankruptcy and the execs being arrested and frog marched in front of the cameras is just that. FANTASY. The financials and overall footing of American are solid and we are well positioned to keep growing while tweaking international and domestic. Which is exactly what they have been doing.

    You are still living in Pleasantville with Don Knotts. You are very old and I understand it's hard to break habits but the new American has arrived and the results and performance speaks for itself. See above.
    According to the stock reports, without the AAdvantage income, AAL would have lost money. It doesn't say much when your credit card income is what's keeping your airline flying....
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cujo665 View Post
    According to the stock reports, without the AAdvantage income, AAL would have lost money. It doesn't say much when your credit card income is what's keeping your airline flying....
    Good reminder. It's been mentioned before here that AA as an airline is a money loser. This contrasts to I believe ALL their competition whose airline ops are to varying degrees actually profitable. It's just another MAJOR red flag, but there are so many red flags, it's hard to notice them all.

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    So that's why i have to listen 5 times per aa flight that bull shi+ advertising sell job for that stupid card. What a disgrace, even spirit only does it once not like aa 5 times per flight.
    Those aa flight attendants must be hard up for that commission.

  20. #40
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    American down over 17% in one reporting period.....

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-american-airlines-aal-down-133101237.html


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