Results 1 to 19 of 19

Thread: The Real “Time to Flow” formula.

  1. #1
    Registered User NoOtPilot's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    2,038
    Level
    100
    Points: 72,493, Level: 100
    Overall activity: 99.7%
    Achievements:
    OverdriveSocialVeteran50000 Experience Points
    Awards:
    DownloadsPosting Award
    Thumbs Up/Down
    Received: 137/37
    Given: 0/0

    Ignore User

    The Real “Time to Flow” formula.


    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    Previously we flowed 50% of all AA new hire positions. They had a tad over 3800 retirement the first 6 years of the "new" flow. 1/2 of that is 1900 pilots at AA to come from Envoy in that six years. At the time Envoy was 1800+ pilots. As long as they honored the 50% the 6 year projection was factually accurate.

    They no longer have 50%. They have 29 a month. That is 348 a year. Anytime AA hires more than 696 in a single year then the 6 year flow math does not work. That also was based upon a pilot group of slightly under 1900 pilots. This flow now can only work if pilots leave for other airlines. The prior flow did not rely on that. Yes, pilots are leaving, but it's not the senior pilots leaving, it's the 2nd and 3rd year pilots. If nobody above you is leaving, you only have the 29 a month to count on. With 2200 pilots and 29 a month leaving it is 6.3 years to flow. You keep saying Envoy is on its way to 3000 pilots. That is 8.6 years to flow.

    Soon the flow goes to 15 a month. That is 180 pilots a year. With a pilot group of 2200 pilots it takes 10.2 years to flow at that rate. If it's 3000 pilots like you say it will be that is a 16.6 year flow. If we assume a bunch of 2 & 3 year FO's continue to bail out at a rate of 15 a month then the attrition doubles to 30. Using your 3000 pilots at Envoy projection a new hire will flow in 8.3 years. A senior pilot that is senior to the demographic where all the attrition is happening is seeing the flow above him drop from 29 a month to 15 a month.

    2nd & 3rd year guys bailing out doesn't help the 4-8 year guys waiting....

    That's the math. Numbers don't lie...

    ...If it's taking 6 years for those lucky few hired in early 2015 while we were flowing 50% and 29 at a minimum..... how can flowing 1/2 still be 6 years.

    ~Cujo665~

    The BIG question is...what happens once it goes down to 5 a month? Which if you ask a recruiter they will use a standard answer to convince you, that Envoy will never go to 5 a month. Give it a try and you will see...and don’t forget, 2021 keeps getting closer...
    Last edited by NoOtPilot; 07-12-2019 at 03:28 PM.

  2. #2
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    630
    Level
    66
    Points: 9,728, Level: 66
    Overall activity: 32.0%
    Achievements:
    VeteranOverdrive5000 Experience Points
    Thumbs Up/Down
    Received: 18/0
    Given: 6/1

    Ignore User

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    Before the flow stops, the goal post will be moved a few more times.

  3. #3
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    2,877
    Level
    70
    Points: 11,500, Level: 70
    Overall activity: 99.9%
    Achievements:
    VeteranOverdrive10000 Experience Points
    Thumbs Up/Down
    Received: 209/18
    Given: 66/145

    Ignore User

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    Quote Originally Posted by Sirsnacksalot View Post
    Before the flow stops, the goal post will be moved a few more times.
    It's entirely possible the whole "flow" will become a non-issue and taken completely out of the hands of Envoy management (actually, most of it already is). In fact, Envoy management in the fairly near future could themselves becoming a "non-issue". I think they are becoming increasingly concerned about THEIR futures as clearly, they don't define policy or control it, simply act at the behest of others. If there is ANY subgroup more at risk then others in the future considering AA's increasingly perilous situation and what may result of it, my bet says Envoy management is among them.
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 07-12-2019 at 09:25 PM.

  4. #4
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    630
    Level
    66
    Points: 9,728, Level: 66
    Overall activity: 32.0%
    Achievements:
    VeteranOverdrive5000 Experience Points
    Thumbs Up/Down
    Received: 18/0
    Given: 6/1

    Ignore User

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    As the possibility of another trip down BK road looms larger, I wouldn’t be surprised if there wasn’t another consolation of the WOs. Much like the early 90s. If this does in fact occur, it’ll be interesting to see who they choose to run it management wise.

  5. #5
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    2,877
    Level
    70
    Points: 11,500, Level: 70
    Overall activity: 99.9%
    Achievements:
    VeteranOverdrive10000 Experience Points
    Thumbs Up/Down
    Received: 209/18
    Given: 66/145

    Ignore User

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    Quote Originally Posted by Sirsnacksalot View Post
    As the possibility of another trip down BK road looms larger, I wouldn’t be surprised if there wasn’t another consolation of the WOs. Much like the early 90s. If this does in fact occur, it’ll be interesting to see who they choose to run it management wise.
    In a future BK scenario considering it has been this management team who would have run AA into the approach lights, I doubt a future creditors committee would green light the same bad actors, including Parker. That means an entirely different world. Also, next time around any creditors committee won’t have labor on its side especially if scope and concessions are on the table. The cost to buy off the ENTIRE front line labor groups at AA in cooperation who are now the whipping posts and seething with alienation will be staggering. Otherwise, they’ll have to take the scorched Earth path and that is certain to destroy what would be left of AA. The next BK for AA will likely be the final one changing the carrier forever and not just another garden variety financial “reorganization”. If anyone is blind to the fact the top tier of executives are now essentially gutting the carcass, they are beyond hope.

    The brand name is still iconic and still would have some value, no doubt, but it would likely be fragmented to a fraction of its present size and broken up with the parts worth more then the whole. Perhaps a small International carrier 1/3 of its former maximum size. The ultra junior Envoy flows at AA then will almost certainly be among the first with their necks in the guillotine ending up with a career in some other jettisoned operation being a fraction of what they had hoped and prayed for..........at least insofar as AA is concerned.
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 07-12-2019 at 09:38 PM.

  6. #6
    Registered User Dacuj's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2017
    Posts
    888
    Level
    79
    Points: 15,346, Level: 79
    Overall activity: 99.5%
    Achievements:
    Overdrive1 year registered10000 Experience Points
    Thumbs Up/Down
    Received: 15/170
    Given: 0/5

    Ignore User

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    In a future BK scenario considering it has been this management team who would have run AA into the approach lights, I doubt a future creditors committee would green light the same bad actors, including Parker. That means an entirely different world. Also, next time around any creditors committee won’t have labor on its side especially if scope and concessions are on the table. The cost to buy off the ENTIRE front line labor groups at AA in cooperation who are now the whipping posts and seething with alienation will be staggering. Otherwise, they’ll have to take the scorched Earth path and that is certain to destroy what would be left of AA. The next BK for AA will likely be the final one changing the carrier forever and not just another garden variety financial “reorganization”. If anyone is blind to the fact the top tier of executives are now essentially gutting the carcass, they are beyond hope.

    The brand name is still iconic and still would have some value, no doubt, but it would likely be fragmented to a fraction of its present size and broken up with the parts worth more then the whole. Perhaps a small International carrier 1/3 of its former maximum size. The ultra junior Envoy flows at AA then will almost certainly be among the first with their necks in the guillotine ending up with a career in some other jettisoned operation being a fraction of what they had hoped and prayed for..........at least insofar as AA is concerned.
    Ha ha ha ha ha ha! LOFL! Hilarious! Your posts just get more ridiculous every day and it shows how unhinged you are.

  7. #7
    Registered User ardvark's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    4,902
    Level
    99
    Points: 29,702, Level: 99
    Overall activity: 77.0%
    Achievements:
    OverdriveVeteran25000 Experience Points
    Thumbs Up/Down
    Received: 570/36
    Given: 589/14

    Ignore User

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    Lighten up frances.
    No one here took your lolly pop.

  8. #8
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    2,877
    Level
    70
    Points: 11,500, Level: 70
    Overall activity: 99.9%
    Achievements:
    VeteranOverdrive10000 Experience Points
    Thumbs Up/Down
    Received: 209/18
    Given: 66/145

    Ignore User

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    Ha ha ha ha ha ha! LOFL! Hilarious! Your posts just get more ridiculous every day and it shows how unhinged you are.
    .....and yet as is your consistent M.O. you offer ZERO in substance on rebuttal. Personally, I think you are subconsciously deathly afraid my beliefs have significant validity and surface denial is your only emotional safe haven. It’s likely why you also ‘self-medicate’ to excess (food, alcohol, masturbation, etc.) to further suppress your insecurities and fears.

    You do see it’s not working, yes ?

  9. #9
    Registered User Dacuj's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2017
    Posts
    888
    Level
    79
    Points: 15,346, Level: 79
    Overall activity: 99.5%
    Achievements:
    Overdrive1 year registered10000 Experience Points
    Thumbs Up/Down
    Received: 15/170
    Given: 0/5

    Ignore User

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    .....and yet as is your consistent M.O. you offer ZERO in substance on rebuttal. Personally, I think you are subconsciously deathly afraid my beliefs have significant validity and surface denial is your only emotional safe haven. It’s likely why you also ‘self-medicate’ to excess (food, alcohol, masturbation, etc.) to further suppress your insecurities and fears.

    You do see it’s not working, yes ?
    Trying to show that you function on a high intellect by using words you pull out of a thesaurus and regurgitating the same old bull **** here ad nauseaum doesn't impress me or anyone else who DOES function on a superior intellectual level. Note how I got you worked up in a frenzy over a couple of minor lobs I sent your way. After being up all night seething with anger, THIS is the best you can come up with?

    The FACTS are that YOU haven't provided a lick of substance for the garbage you put out. I on the other hand have put out valid statements about the direction Envoy is headed along with hard new hire numbers which you haven't offered. I stand by my statements as wholly credible and factual. If it weren't for me, this forum would have collapsed long ago with the 3 or 4 regular whiners that post here. I have a reputation throughout AAG and it's good. I have sources and I get positive feedback on my efforts here from many, both AA and ENY with kudos, atta boys and keep it up frequently.

    It's a great time to be an Envoy pilot.

  10. #10
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    2,877
    Level
    70
    Points: 11,500, Level: 70
    Overall activity: 99.9%
    Achievements:
    VeteranOverdrive10000 Experience Points
    Thumbs Up/Down
    Received: 209/18
    Given: 66/145

    Ignore User

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    Trying to show that you function on a high intellect by using words you pull out of a thesaurus and regurgitating the same old bull **** here ad nauseaum doesn't impress me or anyone else who DOES function on a superior intellectual level. Note how I got you worked up in a frenzy over a couple of minor lobs I sent your way. After being up all night seething with anger, THIS is the best you can come up with?

    The FACTS are that YOU haven't provided a lick of substance for the garbage you put out. I on the other hand have put out valid statements about the direction Envoy is headed along with hard new hire numbers which you haven't offered. I stand by my statements as wholly credible and factual. If it weren't for me, this forum would have collapsed long ago with the 3 or 4 regular whiners that post here. I have a reputation throughout AAG and it's good. I have sources and I get positive feedback on my efforts here from many, both AA and ENY with kudos, atta boys and keep it up frequently.

    It's a great time to be an Envoy pilot.
    Once again you embrace Psychological Projection. It was you that went off the deep end first, starting the latest fracas and what I say MUST impress you for if it didn't, you'd not only not respond hysterically and childishly, but not at all. No anger here, but more frustration and with Cujo. I said last time you overheated and attacked, it would just happen again. I'll say it now too.........It's just going to keep happening until there are consequences. You do this because you are a child. You must have grown up with no boundaries set by your parents resulting in no filter, no tact and the inability to control yourslef. Your responses are virtually all emotion, no facts. They are usually personal directed at the member, instead of valid rebuttal involving content. So now you are the Donald Trump of this forum, eh ?

    LOL !

    Sounds to me like more malignant narcissism reminding me of that absurd and funny story about your "military experience" running massages between CP's in a fake staged battle with blanks. I think that's all a cover for your latent lack of self esteem. Stick to whacking off to YouTube kid, it's at least something you excel at.
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 07-13-2019 at 12:38 PM.

  11. #11
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    515
    Level
    66
    Points: 10,031, Level: 66
    Overall activity: 12.0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran10000 Experience Points
    Thumbs Up/Down
    Received: 71/17
    Given: 71/4

    Ignore User

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    8+ years to flow currently

  12. #12
    Registered User NoOtPilot's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    2,038
    Level
    100
    Points: 72,493, Level: 100
    Overall activity: 99.7%
    Achievements:
    OverdriveSocialVeteran50000 Experience Points
    Awards:
    DownloadsPosting Award
    Thumbs Up/Down
    Received: 137/37
    Given: 0/0

    Ignore User

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    Quote Originally Posted by v1rotate View Post
    8+ years to flow currently
    Any guarantees that Envoy or the regional Industry is going to be around that long?
    CA2B8DAA-E146-4DA2-804A-69248C49CD71.jpg

    PP and 1011 are The Last of the Mohicans.

    Pyramid scheme

    A form of investment (illegal in the US and elsewhere) in which each participant recruits two further participants, with something in returns being given to early participants for the participation or recruitment of the later ones.

    Go where the money is...don’t become a victim of Doug Parker, remember envoy’s management authority is limited or subject to the veto of AAG, in other words envoy management has no authority, as your company backed out of an Agreement in Principle that was signed by ALPA and Envoy.

    It’s time...Wake Up!
    Last edited by NoOtPilot; 07-14-2019 at 09:16 PM.

  13. #13
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Company
    DeathStar
    Base
    MIA
    Job
    Drink Coffee, Battle VNAV/FMS, Duolingo Espanol
    A/C Flown
    SF340, E145, 737
    Divorces
    N/A
    Posts
    309
    Level
    49
    Points: 5,845, Level: 49
    Overall activity: 8.0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran5000 Experience Points
    Thumbs Up/Down
    Received: 24/3
    Given: 22/7

    Ignore User

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    Like preparing for Hurricane season, always a good idea to stock the AAG lifeboat with many provisions and plow a lot of cash into a retirement account and "I'm out of work" account, for whatever reason.

  14. #14
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
    Posts
    225
    Level
    43
    Points: 4,662, Level: 43
    Overall activity: 4.0%
    Achievements:
    1000 Experience PointsVeteran
    Thumbs Up/Down
    Received: 10/0
    Given: 0/0

    Ignore User

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    NoOT, I still don’t understand this 5/mo prediction. Yeah, I know it’s 5 for the first 480 on the seniority list, but then it’s also an additional 1 for ever 125 over that. At our current size, isn’t that 22 or 23/mo and more likely to cap at the percentage limit (25%)? Or are you predicting that in ‘21 AA will only be hiring 20/mo leaving ENY with 5? Just trying to understand your thought process with this one.

  15. #15
    Registered User NoOtPilot's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    2,038
    Level
    100
    Points: 72,493, Level: 100
    Overall activity: 99.7%
    Achievements:
    OverdriveSocialVeteran50000 Experience Points
    Awards:
    DownloadsPosting Award
    Thumbs Up/Down
    Received: 137/37
    Given: 0/0

    Ignore User

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    Quote Originally Posted by copycopy View Post
    NoOT, I still don’t understand this 5/mo prediction. Yeah, I know it’s 5 for the first 480 on the seniority list, but then it’s also an additional 1 for ever 125 over that. At our current size, isn’t that 22 or 23/mo and more likely to cap at the percentage limit (25%)? Or are you predicting that in ‘21 AA will only be hiring 20/mo leaving ENY with 5? Just trying to understand your thought process with this one.
    Check your PM.

  16. #16
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Posts
    371
    Level
    47
    Points: 5,376, Level: 47
    Overall activity: 8.0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran5000 Experience Points
    Thumbs Up/Down
    Received: 19/2
    Given: 0/0

    Ignore User

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    Quote Originally Posted by NoOtPilot View Post
    Check your PM.
    I would like to know this as well. The known math contradicts your claim, and copycopy’s numbers jive with the current situation. Furthermore, AA’s SEC filings show a growth in mainline fleet year end 2021.

  17. #17
    Registered User NoOtPilot's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    2,038
    Level
    100
    Points: 72,493, Level: 100
    Overall activity: 99.7%
    Achievements:
    OverdriveSocialVeteran50000 Experience Points
    Awards:
    DownloadsPosting Award
    Thumbs Up/Down
    Received: 137/37
    Given: 0/0

    Ignore User

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    Quote Originally Posted by Jersdawg View Post
    I would like to know this as well. The known math contradicts your claim, and copycopyÂ’s numbers jive with the current situation. Furthermore, AAÂ’s SEC filings show a growth in mainline fleet year end 2021.
    You are 100% correct, “known” is the key word, SEC fillings show growth. The problem is what they are not showing or they don’t want you to know. Is a simple tactic call “Marketing Distraction” to convince people to take some other actions or decisions so they can control and manipulate the pilots or labor groups. And has been working to perfection. But remember, you know what they want you to know, and you are going to make your decision based on the information you have on hand, but that doesn’t mean that you have all the information, available or not available necessary to make the best informative choice for your future and the future of your family. If you are promised a wrapped box of chocolates, don’t be surprised when you go home there are no chocolates inside the box...the promised was a box of chocolates, not a box with chocolates. You assumed it had chocolates because it was wrapped and there is nothing legally speaking that you can do about it.

    AAG is a whole different monster, they make AMR look like rookies.

    Doug Parker and his team, is the toughest management group you guys will ever face.
    And they will succeed!
    There is no labor union group in the entire AAG corporation that could take that Management Team and bring them down. You will see how Doug Parker and his team is going to bring the AA mechanics down to their knees and make an example for the rest of the Unions.

    “They’ve Got Ice Water in Their Veins”
    Last edited by NoOtPilot; 07-16-2019 at 12:32 PM.

  18. #18
    Super Moderator Cujo665's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Company
    A great one
    Base
    Home Based
    Job
    Pilot
    A/C Flown
    SF340, E145, B767
    Posts
    2,105
    Level
    100
    Points: 32,455, Level: 100
    Overall activity: 60.0%
    Achievements:
    OverdriveVeteran25000 Experience PointsSocial
    Awards:
    Arm of Law
    Thumbs Up/Down
    Received: 370/50
    Given: 75/9

    Ignore User

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    Quote Originally Posted by copycopy View Post
    NoOT, I still don’t understand this 5/mo prediction. Yeah, I know it’s 5 for the first 480 on the seniority list, but then it’s also an additional 1 for ever 125 over that. At our current size, isn’t that 22 or 23/mo and more likely to cap at the percentage limit (25%)? Or are you predicting that in ‘21 AA will only be hiring 20/mo leaving ENY with 5? Just trying to understand your thought process with this one.
    Let’s assume the 25% cap....
    at 50% flow it was just under six years for those hired right away in 2015. This was also due to the large gaps of minimal hiring in the years before them.
    How in the world does cutting that flow rate in half still make under six years. It’s bull**** mystery math that doesn’t hold up.

  19. #19
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Posts
    32
    Level
    40
    Points: 4,133, Level: 40
    Overall activity: 4.0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran1000 Experience Points
    Thumbs Up/Down
    Received: 1/0
    Given: 2/0

    Ignore User

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    Quote Originally Posted by copycopy View Post
    NoOT, I still don’t understand this 5/mo prediction. Yeah, I know it’s 5 for the first 480 on the seniority list, but then it’s also an additional 1 for ever 125 over that. At our current size, isn’t that 22 or 23/mo and more likely to cap at the percentage limit (25%)? Or are you predicting that in ‘21 AA will only be hiring 20/mo leaving ENY with 5? Just trying to understand your thought process with this one.

    Same here

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •