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Previously we flowed 50% of all AA new hire positions. They had a tad over 3800 retirement the first 6 years of the "new" flow. 1/2 of that is 1900 pilots at AA to come from Envoy in that six years. At the time Envoy was 1800+ pilots. As long as they honored the 50% the 6 year projection was factually accurate.

They no longer have 50%. They have 29 a month. That is 348 a year. Anytime AA hires more than 696 in a single year then the 6 year flow math does not work. That also was based upon a pilot group of slightly under 1900 pilots. This flow now can only work if pilots leave for other airlines. The prior flow did not rely on that. Yes, pilots are leaving, but it's not the senior pilots leaving, it's the 2nd and 3rd year pilots. If nobody above you is leaving, you only have the 29 a month to count on. With 2200 pilots and 29 a month leaving it is 6.3 years to flow. You keep saying Envoy is on its way to 3000 pilots. That is 8.6 years to flow.

Soon the flow goes to 15 a month. That is 180 pilots a year. With a pilot group of 2200 pilots it takes 10.2 years to flow at that rate. If it's 3000 pilots like you say it will be that is a 16.6 year flow. If we assume a bunch of 2 & 3 year FO's continue to bail out at a rate of 15 a month then the attrition doubles to 30. Using your 3000 pilots at Envoy projection a new hire will flow in 8.3 years. A senior pilot that is senior to the demographic where all the attrition is happening is seeing the flow above him drop from 29 a month to 15 a month.

2nd & 3rd year guys bailing out doesn't help the 4-8 year guys waiting....

That's the math. Numbers don't lie...

...If it's taking 6 years for those lucky few hired in early 2015 while we were flowing 50% and 29 at a minimum..... how can flowing 1/2 still be 6 years.

~Cujo665~

The BIG question is...what happens once it goes down to 5 a month? Which if you ask a recruiter they will use a standard answer to convince you, that Envoy will never go to 5 a month. Give it a try and you will see...and don’t forget, 2021 keeps getting closer...