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Thread: NO MIA Base, NO 5.5 years to Flow

  1. #41
    Super Moderator Cujo665's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by flyinsol0 View Post
    Cujo, if we are just going by strictly what the contract says, the flow only goes to a hard 15 a month for 150 people, which is about one year.

    After that it’s 25% of new hire class, the cap being 1 pilot per every 125 over 480, plus 5.

    So at a 3k pilot list that’s a cap of 25 per month.

    2k pilot list is 17 per month.

    That's 9.8 years to flow...… 10 years at the 3000/25

    Pretty far cry from their claims....
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cujo665 View Post
    That's 9.8 years to flow...Ö 10 years at the 3000/25

    Pretty far cry from their claims....
    Yep, just letting you know what the actual contract says.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cujo665 View Post
    That's 9.8 years to flow...… 10 years at the 3000/25



    Pretty far cry from their claims....
    Thatís assuming everyone on the property wants to flow and no one gets hired by another airline

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    Registered User NoOtPilot's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Meatloaf View Post
    Thatís assuming everyone on the property wants to flow and no one gets hired by another airline
    And no consolidation among the WO.

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    Quote Originally Posted by flyinsol0 View Post
    Yep, just letting you know what the actual contract says.
    I know, I stopped at the 15 a month since it has not gets worse after that. Just didn’t see the need to confuse people like the recruiters do.
    I actually do think that AA will improve the flow to keep it around 6 years, but until that happens they are flat out lying to anybody being hired today with 6 year claims
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cujo665 View Post
    I know, I stopped at the 15 a month since it has not gets worse after that. Just didnít see the need to confuse people like the recruiters do.
    I actually do think that AA will improve the flow to keep it around 6 years, but until that happens they are flat out lying to anybody being hired today with 6 year claims
    Ehhh thatís a little disingenuous, when you said

    ďIf it's 3000 pilots like you say it will be that is a 16.6 year flow.Ē

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    Quote Originally Posted by flyinsol0 View Post
    Ehhh that’s a little disingenuous, when you said

    “If it's 3000 pilots like you say it will be that is a 16.6 year flow.”
    Dacuj has put the future Envoy pilot figure over 3000 and closer to 3500 IIRC.

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    Quote Originally Posted by flyinsol0 View Post
    Ehhh thatís a little disingenuous, when you said

    ďIf it's 3000 pilots like you say it will be that is a 16.6 year flow.Ē
    The flow is 6 years or less. Period.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    Dacuj has put the future Envoy pilot figure over 3000 and closer to 3500 IIRC.
    Again, Cujo said he knows how the flow works but didnít want to confuse people like the recruiters do, so he went with a static 15 flow per month, saying at 3k pilots it would take 16.6 years. At 3k pilots it would be 10 years, as it would be 25 a month not 15.

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    Quote Originally Posted by flyinsol0 View Post
    Again, Cujo said he knows how the flow works but didnít want to confuse people like the recruiters do, so he went with a static 15 flow per month, saying at 3k pilots it would take 16.6 years. At 3k pilots it would be 10 years, as it would be 25 a month not 15.
    Exactly. The flow is a complicated formula set up by very smart people. These smart people have gone over it with a fine tooth comb and are constantly adjusting. If recruiting is telling you 5.5 years then you can take that to the bank.

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    😑

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    Quote Originally Posted by flyinsol0 View Post
    Again, Cujo said he knows how the flow works but didn’t want to confuse people like the recruiters do, so he went with a static 15 flow per month, saying at 3k pilots it would take 16.6 years. At 3k pilots it would be 10 years, as it would be 25 a month not 15.
    We must not forget that A. These are all only projections and NOBODY can say with any accuracy when pilot X will flow...…….not unless they have a functioning crystal ball anyway and B. The recruiters and Envoy management as evidenced by their misleading ads claiming that the flow is "Guaranteed" which considering their bias and agenda makes them a source that should not be relied upon.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    We must not forget that A. These are all only projections and NOBODY can say with any accuracy when pilot X will flow...ÖÖ.not unless they have a functioning crystal ball anyway and B. The recruiters and Envoy management as evidenced by their misleading ads claiming that the flow is "Guaranteed" which considering their bias and agenda makes them a source that should not be relied upon.
    True, thereís just no reason to lie about the numbers in the contract. On either side.

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    The flow is not going to be a problem for the PPís or the 150 after them...the problem will begin after 2020...for now all you can do is keep selling the flow to keep staffing levels above water, until Parkerís next move. Like flyinsol0 said, there is no reason to lie about numbers. And the right sizing of AA and fleet reduction is right on schedule. There is no reason to lie about that either. The numbers donít lie, and all you can do at this point if you are not a PP or 1011 is wait...or follow Dacujís advice...

    ďOf course 6 years is a lot longer than the 2-3 months it takes to polish your resume, take your suit to the cleaners, go to a few job fairs, and get yourself a new job half a decade before your peers who wait for flow.Ē
    ~Lt.Col. Dacuj~
    Last edited by NoOtPilot; 07-14-2019 at 06:45 AM.

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    Why not give new applicant (RTP/cadet/OTS) a copy of the contract of the flow which will specifically relates to them. That way there is no surprise and they can make a more informed decision.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ardvark View Post
    Why not give new applicant (RTP/cadet/OTS) a copy of the contract of the flow which will specifically relates to them. That way there is no surprise and they can make a more informed decision.
    ......or a detailed history of Envoy, its predecessor and the flow-thru ?

    Of course, the KAK (Kool-Aid Kidz) in recruiting would just counter that with the rainbow of pictures of 787 cockpits, AA’s pilot retirement numbers and hourly rates. Like most Pyramid schemes, the KAK knows they need a continuous addition of lower layers of the pyramid if they are going to get to their assumed pot of gold.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    Exactly. The flow is a complicated formula set up by very smart people. These smart people have gone over it with a fine tooth comb and are constantly adjusting. If recruiting is telling you 5.5 years then you can take that to the bank.
    Now that’s a real funny line “very smart people”. At envoy, give me a break. The smart people got out of there.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NoOtPilot View Post
    The flow is not going to be a problem for the PP’s or the 150 after them...the problem will begin after 2020...for now all you can do is keep selling the flow to keep staffing levels above water, until Parker’s next move. Like flyinsol0 said, there is no reason to lie about numbers. And the right sizing of AA and fleet reduction is right on schedule. There is no reason to lie about that either. The numbers don’t lie, and all you can do at this point if you are not a PP or 1011 is wait...or follow Dacuj’s advice...

    “Of course 6 years is a lot longer than the 2-3 months it takes to polish your resume, take your suit to the cleaners, go to a few job fairs, and get yourself a new job half a decade before your peers who wait for flow.”
    ~Lt.Col. Dacuj~
    Bingo

    the point is the old 50% of every new hire position was indisputable that within the 6 year period the whole Envoy pilot list would flow. Now it’s just BS mystery math. All of the new formulas are much less than 50% of every new hire position. You don’t need to be a mathematician to see that 6 years is no longer possible.
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    "Very Smart People". The product, experience, and most importantly, Operational Reliability of the New American Airlines Network, is substandard. The SVP of AA IT department was a English Major with "ZERO" computer background/practical experience.

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