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Thread: NO MIA Base, NO 5.5 years to Flow

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    Super Moderator Cujo665's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    A new hire Envoy pilot will upgrade immediately if qualified and well under 2 years if not then flow to American Airlines just a few years after. Do some research on your own idiot. Go to the Envoy recruiting Facebook and official webpage.
    I supported their claims of 2.5/6 when they first came out in 2015 because the math worked. That was based upon 50% of all AA retirements coming from Envoy. That no longer is the case. Currently it is 29 and will soon drop to 15. The flow rate reduces after the L10-11's and 12-14's are gone. It drops to half what is was, which is still less than the original 50% the original claims were made from. It is a mathematical impossibility to flow in 5 years if hired today under these flow rules. If you can not grasp that then you are more delusional than anybody realized.

    The ONLY way a reduced flow rate to less than half of the current rate works is if they plan to shrink the airline drastically.
    Last edited by Cujo665; 07-12-2019 at 10:06 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cujo665 View Post
    I supported their claims of 2.5/6 when they first came out in 2015 because the math worked. That was based upon 50% of all AA retirements coming from Envoy. That no longer is the case. Currently it is 29 and will soon drop to 15. The flow rate reduces after the L10-11's and 12-14's are gone. It drops to half what is was, which is still less than the original 50% the original claims were made from. It is a mathematical impossibility to flow in 5 years if hired today under these flow rules. If you can not grasp that then you are more delusional than anybody realized.

    The ONLY way a reduced flow rate to less than half of the current rate works is if they plan to shrink the airline drastically.
    OK then, let's try it his way for a little while. I owe myself some fun before the exit...…..

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    I've POSTED FACTUAL DATA HERE FOR YEARS OLD MAN. Y O U are the one who posts f/%*€ųg lies here on a daily basis and yet turns around and has the call to ask for facts when they've been smeared in your f/%*&#g face almost daily. Time for you to **** all over yourself.
    …….stop acting like the drooling little punk you excel at being and pull your head out of your ass for a minute, buttwipe. You've repeatedly posted bull**** here since your inception you little jizzbucket.
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 07-12-2019 at 10:30 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    A new hire Envoy pilot will upgrade immediately if qualified and well under 2 years if not then flow to American Airlines just a few years after. Do some research on your own idiot. Go to the Envoy recruiting Facebook and official webpage.
    There are no more street captains you pathetic little turd and you know it.

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    If there's not going to be any moderation, then what's good for the goose is good for the gander.

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    The last pilots to be in class at AA were hired in march of 2011... thats not a 5 year flow. As a matter of fact, at the end of this year they will still be flowing 2011 hires. So over 8 year flow currently by "the math".

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    There are no more street captains you pathetic little turd and you know it.
    I didn't say street captain's. With the rate of flow, it's entirely possible to be online as an FO and get a Captain upgrade on the first vacancy.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cujo665 View Post
    I supported their claims of 2.5/6 when they first came out in 2015 because the math worked. That was based upon 50% of all AA retirements coming from Envoy. That no longer is the case. Currently it is 29 and will soon drop to 15. The flow rate reduces after the L10-11's and 12-14's are gone. It drops to half what is was, which is still less than the original 50% the original claims were made from. It is a mathematical impossibility to flow in 5 years if hired today under these flow rules. If you can not grasp that then you are more delusional than anybody realized.

    The ONLY way a reduced flow rate to less than half of the current rate works is if they plan to shrink the airline drastically.
    You must have failed math as a subject in school. The math works! Call up recruiting and have someonw walk you through it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    I didn't say street captain's. With the rate of flow, it's entirely possible to be online as an FO and get a Captain upgrade on the first vacancy.
    You stated "a new hire Envoy pilot will upgrade immediately if qualified". If "immediately" isn't the moment they set foot on Envoy property (in new-hire class), then when ? That's rhetorical as there's no answer you can redeem your dog**** credibility with.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    You stated "a new hire Envoy pilot will upgrade immediately if qualified". If "immediately" isn't the moment they set foot on Envoy property (in new-hire class), then when ? That's rhetorical as there's no answer you can redeem your dog**** credibility with.
    Oh yeah? What about your dog**** credibility? You've been SCREAMING that the sky is falling at Envoy for YEARS and in the past year or so have extended that to AA. Not a ******* thing has come true that you have predicted? How's that for a credible source jackwagon?

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    Super Moderator Cujo665's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    You must have failed math as a subject in school. The math works! Call up recruiting and have someonw walk you through it.
    Previously we flowed 50% of all AA new hire positions. They had a tad over 3800 retirement the first 6 years of the "new" flow. 1/2 of that is 1900 pilots at AA to come from Envoy in that six years. At the time Envoy was 1800+ pilots. As long as they honored the 50% the 6 year projection was factually accurate.

    They no longer have 50%. They have 29 a month. That is 348 a year. Anytime AA hires more than 696 in a single year then the 6 year flow math does not work. That also was based upon a pilot group of slightly under 1900 pilots. This flow now can only work if pilots leave for other airlines. The prior flow did not rely on that. Yes, pilots are leaving, but it's not the senior pilots leaving, it's the 2nd and 3rd year pilots. If nobody above you is leaving, you only have the 29 a month to count on. With 2200 pilots and 29 a month leaving it is 6.3 years to flow. You keep saying Envoy is on its way to 3000 pilots. That is 8.6 years to flow.

    Soon the flow goes to 15 a month. That is 180 pilots a year. With a pilot group of 2200 pilots it takes 10.2 years to flow at that rate. If it's 3000 pilots like you say it will be that is a 16.6 year flow. If we assume a bunch of 2 & 3 year FO's continue to bail out at a rate of 15 a month then the attrition doubles to 30. Using your 3000 pilots at Envoy projection a new hire will flow in 8.3 years. A senior pilot that is senior to the demographic where all the attrition is happening is seeing the flow above him drop from 29 a month to 15 a month. If you do not understand this, then discussing it with you is pointless. You're nothing more than a crappy used car salesman at that point, selling what used to be a good deal before.

    2nd & 3rd year guys bailing out doesn't help the 4-8 year guys waiting....

    That's the math. Numbers don't lie, unlike you.

    Just use basic common sense if you can't use a calculator. If it's taking 6 years for those lucky few hired in early 2015 while we were flowing 50% and 29 at a minimum..... how can flowing 1/2 still be 6 years.
    Last edited by Cujo665; 07-12-2019 at 01:44 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    Oh yeah? What about your dog**** credibility? You've been SCREAMING that the sky is falling at Envoy for YEARS and in the past year or so have extended that to AA. Not a ******* thing has come true that you have predicted? How's that for a credible source jackwagon?

    Both of you chill out a little.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    Oh yeah? What about your dog**** credibility? You've been SCREAMING that the sky is falling at Envoy for YEARS and in the past year or so have extended that to AA. Not a ******* thing has come true that you have predicted? How's that for a credible source jackwagon?
    You really are a brainless dope, aren’t you ? Your mother must have shot you out across the room bouncing your fat head off the wall like a peach pit. The ONLY reason Envoy can get any pilots at all Mr. Riddler, is by paying them more then they produce and in some cases (supposedly) $100K/year or the Envoy MEC abandoning all credibility and handing them super seniority. Let’s not forget BS flow-through claims that are over-inflated.

    Without that, Envoy would have liquidated years ago.

    How about AA ? From most reports I hear, the operation is a hot mess and not just because of the mechanics. Parker’s profit puffery which the entire future of AA was based on has fallen WELL flat of those claims, debt has skyrocket to levels more then both Delta and United combined (perhaps Southwest too) and ALL during the most economically robust period in history. As it stands now, IMO, AA is two losing quarters from the precipice of another bankruptcy and they have alienated their entire front-line labor to the point that I can’t see how they will EVER rehabilitate the product to a level that isn’t anything more then an airborne dime store.

    If I were you kid, I’d make sure I have plenty of savings for the future, lest you run out of OxyContin, Zoloft, Vodka and Cheetos and Mommy kicks you out of the basement.
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 07-12-2019 at 02:33 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cujo665 View Post
    Both of you chill out a little.

    We’re past that now Cuj. I warned you this would happen months ago and highlighted exactly what I warned you about occurring in this thread, but nothing. Now, we are in the gutter. If he’s going to take direct shots at me, they will be returned tit-for-tat. No more ****ing around. Hey, he and his chums had a hand in getting me tossed off APC by a sympathetic MOD for no other reason they disliked my POV. He’s clearly and repeatedly stated that’s his goal here and this is how he plans to do it. I’ve asked for moderation in the past, got none and here we are.

    So, I guess we’re where I predicted we’d be - One of us is a short-timer here. I’m cool with you giving him and his chums their wish. I’m fed up and strongly thinking of moving on anyway, so no big deal on my end. Your call.
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 07-12-2019 at 02:40 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    We’re past that now Cuj. I warned you this would happen months ago and highlighted exactly what I warned you about occurring in this thread, but nothing. Now, we are in the gutter. If he’s going to take direct shots at me, they will be returned tit-for-tat. No more ****ing around. Hey, he and his chums had a hand in getting me tossed off APC by a sympathetic MOD for no other reason they disliked my POV. He’s clearly and repeatedly stated that’s his goal here and this is how he plans to do it. I’ve asked for moderation in the past, got none and here we are.

    So, I guess we’re where I predicted we’d be - One of us is a short-timer here. I’m cool with you giving him and his chums their wish. I’m fed up and strongly thinking of moving on anyway, so no big deal on my end. Your call.
    You're both equally out of line. Hence the tone it down a little comment. I'm not bouncing anybody just because it got a little heated. Let it get heated, that's fine. So long as it gets toned down some all is fine with me. I've had zero PM complaints from other members about either of you.... just you about each other.
    If toning it down isn't sufficient, feel free to PM the admin.

    Had nothing to do with you getting bounced at APC, I don't even know what it was about.
    Last edited by Cujo665; 07-12-2019 at 02:52 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cujo665 View Post
    You're both equally out of line. Hence the tone it down a little comment. I'm not bouncing anybody just because it got a little heated. Let it get heated, that's fine. So long as it gets toned down some all is fine with me. I've had zero PM complaints from other members about either of you.... just you about each other.
    If toning it down isn't sufficient, feel free to PM the admin.
    How much “heat” is too much ? If the stated forum rules are not going to be adhered too, fine. If personal attack is OK, fine, but there is no defined limit of what needs to be “toned down” then. That’s a unquantifiable metric and totally subjective so no one can know what is too much. The only reason I’m “out of line” is in response to him and again, what IS “out of line” ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Cujo665 View Post
    Had nothing to do with you getting bounced at APC, I don't even know what it was about.
    Not saying you had anything to do with it, just he has a motive and that’s to silence me any way he can. I’ll be up front, it stays tit-for tat for me with him, so heat or no heat, tone or no tone, bounce or no bounce, it’s up to him how we interact. I’ll say it again, he has no filter, so inevitably even if the heat goes down, it will eventually be back to where we are now. It’s in his nature.
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 07-12-2019 at 03:18 PM.

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    In my opinion (not that it matters since I donít own this sandbox) Dacuj has by far broken more rules of this forum than anyone since itís inception.
    If nothing else, itís entertaining to see what type of scat will spew forth from his pie hole next.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sirsnacksalot View Post
    In my opinion (not that it matters since I don’t own this sandbox) Dacuj has by far broken more rules of this forum than anyone since it’s inception.
    If nothing else, it’s entertaining to see what type of scat will spew forth from his pie hole next.
    I have no problem with most of that "scat". If you want to call that "heat", fine. Unlike dacuj, I seek no censorship on this forum. That being said, there HAS to be some defined standard for if there is none or just subjective...……...well, there are no guardrails and IMO, then anything goes. Actually, there IS a standard and it's listed in the forum rules, it's just been nullified as simply suggestions through casual disregard. That's the job of anyone who accepts a moderators role, i.e., enforce the rules fairly. I've been willing to be attacked by dacuj and others to a certain degree that I actually dish out, but there HAS to be some standard. We...….um, well most of us are critical of Envoy and/or AA for their penchant of having no ethical standard in living up to agreed upon specified boundaries and it's hypocritical of us to criticize them without living up to a standard we demand should be met, like contractual language.

    We cannot be critical of others disregarding that in making up their OWN rules and then do the same here. Dacuj has repeatedly pole-vaulted over every rule known here up to including direct personal attack and even outing. Not once, but repeatedly and why not ? There has NEVER been a single consequence for blatant and repetitive violation of every rule here. Attack the message all you want, but if you're going to make it personal and attack the member, in my case no more Mr. Nice guy. I plan to stick it in and break it off from now on unless and until some defined semblance of decorum is defined and adhered to. If it takes turning this forum into a dogfight to get there, so be it.

    Let the good times roll...……..
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 07-12-2019 at 07:23 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cujo665 View Post
    Previously we flowed 50% of all AA new hire positions. They had a tad over 3800 retirement the first 6 years of the "new" flow. 1/2 of that is 1900 pilots at AA to come from Envoy in that six years. At the time Envoy was 1800+ pilots. As long as they honored the 50% the 6 year projection was factually accurate.

    They no longer have 50%. They have 29 a month. That is 348 a year. Anytime AA hires more than 696 in a single year then the 6 year flow math does not work. That also was based upon a pilot group of slightly under 1900 pilots. This flow now can only work if pilots leave for other airlines. The prior flow did not rely on that. Yes, pilots are leaving, but it's not the senior pilots leaving, it's the 2nd and 3rd year pilots. If nobody above you is leaving, you only have the 29 a month to count on. With 2200 pilots and 29 a month leaving it is 6.3 years to flow. You keep saying Envoy is on its way to 3000 pilots. That is 8.6 years to flow.

    Soon the flow goes to 15 a month. That is 180 pilots a year. With a pilot group of 2200 pilots it takes 10.2 years to flow at that rate. If it's 3000 pilots like you say it will be that is a 16.6 year flow. If we assume a bunch of 2 & 3 year FO's continue to bail out at a rate of 15 a month then the attrition doubles to 30. Using your 3000 pilots at Envoy projection a new hire will flow in 8.3 years. A senior pilot that is senior to the demographic where all the attrition is happening is seeing the flow above him drop from 29 a month to 15 a month ...
    Cujo, if we are just going by strictly what the contract says, the flow only goes to a hard 15 a month for 150 people, which is about one year.

    After that itís 25% of new hire class, the cap being 1 pilot per every 125 over 480, plus 5.

    So at a 3k pilot list thatís a cap of 25 per month.

    2k pilot list is 17 per month.

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    Quote Originally Posted by flyinsol0 View Post
    Cujo, if we are just going by strictly what the contract says, the flow only goes to a hard 15 a month for 150 people, which is about one year.

    After that itís 25% of new hire class, the cap being 1 pilot per every 125 over 480, plus 5.

    So at a 3k pilot list thatís a cap of 25 per month.

    2k pilot list is 17 per month.
    And this is the standard answer, that will confused anyone that asks about what happens after the 150 pilots when it drops to 5 a month...Ēwe will never go to 5 a monthĒ a quote from many recruiters. The intent and the reality will meet in 2021.

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