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Thread: Appears Envoy is Shrinking...

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    Appears Envoy is Shrinking...


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    24925F81-2093-4585-849E-169F22953BDD.jpg
    Lines are decreasing in ORD, MIA, NY
    Projected to decrease more.

    RWs predictions not so accurate.
    I always tell the truth. Even when I lie.

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    Follow the AAlpha Dog?

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    Quote Originally Posted by NoOtPilot View Post
    24925F81-2093-4585-849E-169F22953BDD.jpg
    Lines are decreasing in ORD, MIA, NY
    Projected to decrease more.

    RW’s predictions not so accurate.
    Less 140's, more 175's.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Death Dealer View Post
    Less 140's, more 175's.
    Just about maxed out on “large RJ’s” in the Eagle system due to scope. AA narrow body fleet has no real growth planned so no measurable increase in 175’s soon. All they can do then is replace clapped out smaller RJ’s with new, but buying hundreds of replacement 50-65 seaters ? That’s a lot of money, especially with the risk no one will be around to fly them. It’s also a lot of new debt that generates no additional revenue and thus profit. Without regional feed, the withering AA loses even more market share and then withers even more and faster.

    What to do ? What to do ?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    Just about maxed out on “large RJ’s” in the Eagle system due to scope. AA narrow body fleet has no real growth planned so no measurable increase in 175’s soon. All they can do then is replace clapped out smaller RJ’s with new, but buying hundreds of replacement 50-65 seaters ? That’s a lot of money, especially with the risk no one will be around to fly them. It’s also a lot of new debt that generates no additional revenue and thus profit. Without regional feed, the withering AA loses even more market share and then withers even more and faster.

    What to do ? What to do ?
    AA is not shrinking and narrow body has small growth according to SEC filings. Unless you want to hang your hat on the word "real". Then have at it. You hint at small RJ flying increasing, but currently they are hitting large RJ and small RJ caps. So unless your doom and gloom happens, minimal change here.


    2019 2020 2021
    A319 126 133 133 133
    A320 48 48 48 44
    A321 219 219 219 219
    A321neo — 12 32 50 0 12 32 50
    B738 304 304 299 276
    MAX 20 40 50 60
    E190 20 14 0 0
    MD0 30 0 0 0
    767 770 781 782



    https://americanairlines.gcs-web.com...7-bbff8f3eab9c

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    But to the original post, shrinking at Envoy could happen. We've seen it before after we voted no.

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    Bravo!👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼 Now find what AAG doesnt want you to know. I give you A+ for trying. Keep going...
    Two pieces of the puzzle 🧩 🧩 is not enough to give you the BIG picture.

    You only have Pilot Retirements🧩 & Deliveries🧩

    Refuse to be ignorant!! Appears you are the only one in search of the truth. Dont give up!
    Last edited by NoOtPilot; 06-13-2019 at 10:46 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NoOtPilot View Post
    Bravo! Now find what AAG doesn’t want you to know. I give you A+ for trying. Keep going...
    Two pieces of the puzzle 里 里 is not enough to give you the BIG picture.

    You only have Pilot Retirements里 & Deliveries里

    Refuse to be ignorant!! Appears you are the only one in search of the truth. Don’t give up!
    Mergers happen all the time and I don't speculate to those

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    Quote Originally Posted by Meatloaf View Post
    AA is not shrinking and narrow body has small growth according to SEC filings. Unless you want to hang your hat on the word "real". Then have at it. You hint at small RJ flying increasing, but currently they are hitting large RJ and small RJ caps. So unless your doom and gloom happens, minimal change here.


    2019 2020 2021
    A319 126 133 133 133
    A320 48 48 48 44
    A321 219 219 219 219
    A321neo — 12 32 50 0 12 32 50
    B738 304 304 299 276
    MAX 20 40 50 60
    E190 20 14 0 0
    MD0 30 0 0 0
    767 770 781 782



    https://americanairlines.gcs-web.com...7-bbff8f3eab9c
    Thanks for the info. If I’m reading P.18 of the filing correctly (April 26 projections), it shows EOY2018 fleet at 956. EOY2019 at 942. That’s a loss of 14 hulls, is it not ? EOY2020 it gets back to 956. Over the last 2 years I’ve read several revisions to the AA fleet going up and down. Clearly, AA operates on a fairly fluid plan that goes up and down by very small percentages. VERY small. Bottom line despite these projections is that yes, I’ll “hang my hat” on the statement AA growth is not significant, at least insofar as pilots are concerned. ANY projection more then 18 months is unreliable considering past variations and especially past 2020.

    If you want to hang your hat on these present projections being significant, knock yourself out. From my view, AA has no real growth planned, no fleet acquisitions beyond replacement that would be of significance for growth, they’re hamstrung by scope, operate on a competitive plan that centers on retreat to the security of monopolistic strongholds, which really isn’t a “competitive” plan, just one to kick the can until they can figure one out, a product more akin to a LCC and another 2 years minimum of massive debt while in a VERY risky economic environment.
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 06-13-2019 at 06:33 PM.

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    There are no weak competitor's for aa, that's what you get when everyone merges. But aa could be viewed as itself as a weak competitor.
    It's all relative in which way water flows.

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