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Thread: Aa hub plans

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    Most of this "growth" is occurring at the regional level as is most of the new routes to smaller cities. AA has focused on there three most profitable hubs because it's easier to be profitable when you have a monopoly vs. facing strong competition, hence AA is fleeing hubs that haven't performed well because of that competition and are simply moving assets around to where it is hoped they'd be more financially productive. Long-term, look for further contraction in non "fortress" hubs like NY and Boston as marginally profitable flying is moved in the hope of getting more profit then just "some". RJ replacement might occur in some markets though. AA is essentially now a dishrag that's been wrung out as much as possible and is only damp and producing no additional cash drip. If anyone has any doubt's about that look at AA's profit trends over the last few years. Going forward, as Delta and LCC's expand into AA fortress hubs like DFW and CLT (and they will), AA becomes weaker due to its hamstrung ability to compete. This is a byproduct of little flexibility due to lack of assets (aircraft) and staffing (they cannot hire and train fast enough for attrition). Plus, as stated before their debt load and liquidity position makes any aircraft acquisition for either AA or the Eagle system problematic and too tepid to offset the resources that would have to be expended to ramp such new ops up. AA's fleet is forecast to be basically stagnant, with a small percentage increase in RJ ops, especially with the DFW E-175 expansion, but pilots at AA and the Eagle carriers are flying at maximum schedulable levels.

    Even if both the parent and "feeder" (now a loose term for the Eagle system) operations start scheduling crews more on the back side of the clock like UPS and FedEx, they can't get much more out of them. They also cannot get a foot in the door with any significant new aircraft purchases due to their finances and training abilities and order/delivery position realities. Any new fleet types now at either operation would be very problematic with logistics like bidding and training bubbles requiring many hundreds more pilots in the total count or the rest of the operation be it AA or Eagle flounders and both market share and revenue are lost. Thus, barring any mergers at either operation (B-A-D for Envoy flow hopefuls and junior AA), it appears AA will remain on the expansion/competition sidelines for the foreseeable future and will be forced to seek new revenue by wringing an already dry rag tighter for more moisture and primarily in their own wash basins. Not a good long-term competitive situation IMO. Actually, it appears their best (and likely only) significant option appears to be a rather poor one and that's gradual replacement of the small Embraer 145 series with 65 seat CRJ-700 or the "new" model (550) being marketed that UAL will put into service. That model only brings 50-seats though and that's one expensive way to add very few seats to their markets. It's the only option to add some seats while minimizing logistical hurdles, but would still require financing. In the case of AA, it's great (in theory) for pilots that AA will have such stunning pilot attrition over the coming years, but on the flipside, it's HIGHLY unlikely AA will be able to train upwards of 1000 new-hires annually in addition to the thousands of present pilots making lateral moves and upgrades. Delta, United, Southwest and most of the LCC's wont have this problem anywhere near the magnitude of AA.

    Meanwhile DAL will continue make a spectacular success out of their A220 program with a superior quality product coupled with great economics, thus solid profit and all with the best compensated and most motivated employees in the US Industry. In fact, looking forward at AA's future labor woes with pilots, mechanics and Agents/FSC's ALL headed for certain increased frustration as many of the rest of their industry peers gradually leave them behind, a very ugly picture is becoming clearer. As for the that accelerating competition, all AA can do IMO is watch and throw a tackle here and there, but ultimately, especially in the case of Delta, they've already won the game. Sun Tsu was right.
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 04-10-2019 at 04:32 PM.

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    oh, so SOP.
    Sir, can I have another.

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