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Thread: When a CEO loses faith in his company...

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    Registered User NoOtPilot's Avatar
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    When a CEO loses faith in his company...


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    This is what they do, cash out at the top.

    3E07CB70-8995-4C69-89F5-22DB9C09F32C.jpg
    B67EE708-4228-4AF9-9D77-2DD820526376.jpg

    Frank Lorenzo did exactly the same thing.

    Just Facts
    Last edited by NoOtPilot; 03-04-2019 at 02:50 PM.

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    Stock price is already slowly, but surely dribbling down to its pre-2018 profit announcement which gave it a bit of a bump. There's nothing of substance to really sustain this outfit's stock price IMO. IIRC, Parker proudly and confidently said AA's future annual profits would be upwards of 7 billion in a good year and 3 billion in a bad year and 2018 was, what...…….less than 2 billion ? I'd be surprised if Managements latest breathtaking initiatives of adding more RJ's to DFW, jamming more seats in 737's and wringing out the flight crews to work maximum allowed hours by FAR's is going to ramp up 2019's profits more than 2018's. I think all should remember, they'll need at least 1.5 billion or more just for debt servicing and to make required pension fund payments this year and even more next year. If profits don't improve substantially, they might start to eat into their liquidity and also IIRC, they said their liquidity floor is about 7 billion, which they are close to now. But....how will they get profits to improve if they are in the situation they are in competitively and with labor ? The pilots and mechanics are STILL under bankruptcy contracts and a lot of their pilot and F/A labor are lower end of the longevity pay scales.


    This is all WITHOUT any significant downturn in the global or domestic economy, nor an AA related issue negatively impacting profits (note: Economists are forecasting the next recession no later then 2020). In my eyes, AA management (to which the WO regionals depend on) has the throttle firewalled, the mixture leaned for best power, the airspeed already down to Vx and they still are just barely climbing. Considering it looks like they are now in a valley with insufficient room for a 180 and are surrounded by ridgelines they are still looking UP at, one questions if a miracle gust of wind will suddenly provide some lift to get them into the next valley or will they be forced to pick the best scrub below them and plow it in (to the courthouse steps) ?

    We shall see.

    Again, it's probably a good idea to note what the panel instruments and window views are showing and plan for the worst. What's in your wallet ? We know what's in Parker's and his upper echelon cronies and maybe that too is another red flag to note. If you plan on flowing to AA, Caveat Emptor.
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 03-04-2019 at 03:57 PM.

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    Stock price bump from 2018 earnings report has now vaporized. 52-week low is just under $29/share. Curious to see if it gets there or worse. Probably not, but what is there to bring it back up ? The management forecast was for revenue/profit struggles in 1Q19 and then good improvement the rest of the year for improved performance in 2019 vs. 2018. Reality or wishful thinking, we shall see.

    IF a recession occurs in 2020 and AAG doesn’t bank a lot of extra bucks this year as predicted, considering the bills due in 2020, the risk level significantly increases IMO. One thing appears obvious and that’s with all this uncertainty, there will be no union contract improvements at AA or Envoy anytime soon. What’s in your wallet ?

    ......hopefully a lot of savings.

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    It will be pilots pulling the ejection handle and parachuting down to another airline. Eastern, pan am, twa all went the same way.
    Bankruptcy only can do so much for management, the other airlines will ge scooping down like vultures picking the aag carcass for the parts they want.

    But wait, there will be a new, new, new american.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ardvark View Post
    It will be pilots pulling the ejection handle and parachuting down to another airline. Eastern, pan am, twa all went the same way.
    Bankruptcy only can do so much for management, the other airlines will ge scooping down like vultures picking the aag carcass for the parts they want.

    But wait, there will be a new, new, new american.
    IMO, some will, but many won’t. Some can’t. At AA, those senior will ride it out. Most of those in the middle of the pack, especially older will ride it out too. Those junior will have some options, although many are older flows and won’t have the options younger pilots will. Delta and United will skim the cream first (that being whatever they consider “cream”.). If say, AA dumps 200-400 mainline jets over the next 5-10 years to the Eagle system (or likely a successor), the bottom 1/3 have some thinking to do. I think it all depends on what AAG asks (and gets) from the Court regarding scope.

    I think they’d like 110 seats/140K MGTOW to allow up to the E-195E2 and/or A220 (-100). They might not get it though. They will almost certainly include the WO’s in the filing as well, so they can avoid seniority squabbles between WO pilots and junior AA pilots (mechanics and F/A’s too as they have scope) who would likely be offered positions in what would be termed a “New Entrant” carrier that would be morphed from some or all the WO’s to fly this new segment of the operation. A “Group I” Airline, if you will. If they only got 100 seats and less weight, they could still do a fleet of E190E2’s and E175E2’s. Again, the transition would take years, but in the interim, the flow would stop and new candy would have to be sold to Envoy pilots to maximize retention. That candy wouldn’t really pay much more, but it would be shiny with good music and we know as history proves, that’s enough for many.

    Personally, I don’t think the above is a good plan as again, the remaining AA brand would be poisoned on the pilot side, but management might take that risk. Why ? Well, most junior pilots aren’t militant unionists (as the majority of Envoy’s present ranks prove beyond a shadow of a doubt) and many AA pilot’s don’t have an A-fund to lose as they came from US Airways and since a lot of AA pilots would not have that many better options and the loss of current scope wouldn’t impact them too much due to age and seniority, they would suck it up and ride it out. It wouldn’t be pretty, nor a place you’d want to flow to anyway. It does have potential to slow AA’s descent into relative oblivion, at least to becoming a much smaller International carrier. Of course, the worst case scenario is fragmentation, whereby some fleets are partially sold off, maybe with some or all pilots, a’la TWA/Pan Am. Any AA pilots that might make such a transition would likely have zero leverage regarding seniority, though.

    Never underestimate the past as it has a tendency to repeat itself no matter how much humans avoid, evade or deny it. Again, coming to the bottom of AA’s 15,000 pilot seniority list might turn into a journey you had not expected. Plenty of pilots in the past have taken this very same journey, so it isn’t really that far-fetched.
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 03-07-2019 at 10:56 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    Stock price bump from 2018 earnings report has now vaporized. 52-week low is just under $29/share. Curious to see if it gets there or worse. Probably not, but what is there to bring it back up ? The management forecast was for revenue/profit struggles in 1Q19 and then good improvement the rest of the year for improved performance in 2019 vs. 2018. Reality or wishful thinking, we shall see.

    IF a recession occurs in 2020 and AAG doesn’t bank a lot of extra bucks this year as predicted, considering the bills due in 2020, the risk level significantly increases IMO. One thing appears obvious and that’s with all this uncertainty, there will be no union contract improvements at AA or Envoy anytime soon. What’s in your wallet ?

    ......hopefully a lot of savings.
    ...but what is there to bring it back up ?

    Answer: millions of dollars in contract CONCESSIONS by Pilots, Mechanics & Flight Attendants, if they really want to save their airline.
    Is part of the plan Doug Parker is orchestrating.
    I will give him an A+ for for planning and execution.

    “Is so clear, just a matter of time.”
    The facts and red flags are there, time is on his side.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NoOtPilot View Post
    ...but what is there to bring it back up ?

    Answer: millions of dollars in contract CONCESSIONS by Pilots, Mechanics & Flight Attendants, if they really want to save their airline.
    Is part of the plan Doug Parker is orchestrating.
    I will give him an A+ for for planning and execution.

    “Is so clear, just a matter of time.”
    The facts and red flags are there, time is on his side.
    IMO, the AA pilot group will never accept any threat of BK for concessions to avoid it while other airlines pilots who are ALREADY ahead of AA's pilots, some by a significant margin, do not. They will have to file, which again will require more justification then at present because they are risking shareholder value which they have a fiduciary responsibility for. Likely the mechanics will also take a hard line stance, essentially taking the shareholders with them along with any future investors looking for stability. Once they file, they then have to convince a judge via 1113 motion that successful reorganization requires the changes they are asking. Asking for too much can backfire and actually result in less then you'd accept. The Envoy/ALPA method of scaring the pilots with threats of getting more without submitting an 1113 request will also be met with the middle finger IMO. As such, whacking the A-fund which only about half of AA pilots have (or will within a year or two) and scope will be the meat of what they want and likely all they will get, except perhaps with some bidding restrictions to save training costs.

    It will be clear next time that management incompetence seeking to capitalize on that incompetence will be the reason for Chapter 11 reorganization and not the fault of labor who when the situation is examined, will once again be shown to be victims. But, the court would have to act for the interests of solvency, competitiveness and shareholder/investor interests, so A-fund and Scope are likely to fall. PBGC will howl about the pensions and AAG might have to seed more into it then doing a straight handoff, but the PBGC doesn't have the leverage of last time what with holding AMR's SA assets as a bargaining chip. AAG will be prepared this time. Again, timing is the wildcard as no one can predict the exact timing of the metrics AAG needs to pull the trigger. But, they need some way to truly compete (at least for a little while longer) and waiting too long on the sidelines of reinventing their model has risks too. The new entity might even be spun off as a separate stock and the WO's sold or dissolved. I suppose the new flow might be a flow to "Group 1 Air" (G1A) and then perhaps to "International" AA ? I think 5 years from now, AAG (or whatever it morphs into) won't own or fly anything less then 76-seats and that will all be outsourced and likely a much smaller outsourcing due to lack of pilots. The present AA could contract by close to 1000 pilots/year (75 aircraft/year) transferring half or maybe the majority of present Group II ops to the new entity and reinvent a service-oriented airline with employees who haven't been so abused and are not jaded. The former AA would probably just become a limited Group II and predominantly Group IV International carrier retaining the AA brand. AA = 110 seats or greater, the new entity all ops with less.


    But, in this scenario it must be acknowledged it could change the ENTIRE US Airline Industry as much as deregulation did as it would put enormous pressure on the two premier legacies to bust scope too or come up with a viable counterplan. The LCC's could compete though and arguably with better products then AA or any new entity related to it as clearly, the focus here is not on quality, but "bottom line" profits.
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 03-07-2019 at 01:02 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    IMO, the AA pilot group will never accept any threat of BK for concessions to avoid it while other airlines pilots who are ALREADY ahead of AA's pilots, some by a significant margin, do not. They will have to file, which again will require more justification then at present because they are risking shareholder value which they have a fiduciary responsibility for. Likely the mechanics will also take a hard line stance, essentially taking the shareholders with them along with any future investors looking for stability. Once they file, they then have to convince a judge via 1113 motion that successful reorganization requires the changes they are asking. Asking for too much can backfire and actually result in less then you'd accept. The Envoy/ALPA method of scaring the pilots with threats of getting more without submitting an 1113 request will also be met with the middle finger IMO. As such, whacking the A-fund which only about half of AA pilots have (or will within a year or two) and scope will be the meat of what they want and likely all they will get, except perhaps with some bidding restrictions to save training costs.

    It will be clear next time that management incompetence seeking to capitalize on that incompetence will be the reason for Chapter 11 reorganization and not the fault of labor who when the situation is examined, will once again be shown to be victims. But, the court would have to act for the interests of solvency, competitiveness and shareholder/investor interests, so A-fund and Scope are likely to fall. PBGC will howl about the pensions and AAG might have to seed more into it then doing a straight handoff, but the PBGC doesn't have the leverage of last time what with holding AMR's SA assets as a bargaining chip. AAG will be prepared this time. Again, timing is the wildcard as no one can predict the exact timing of the metrics AAG needs to pull the trigger. But, they need some way to truly compete (at least for a little while longer) and waiting too long on the sidelines of reinventing their model has risks too. The new entity might even be spun off as a separate stock and the WO's sold or dissolved. I suppose the new flow might be a flow to "Group 1 Air" (G1A) and then perhaps to "International" AA ? I think 5 years from now, AAG (or whatever it morphs into) won't own or fly anything less then 76-seats and that will all be outsourced and likely a much smaller outsourcing due to lack of pilots. The present AA could contract by close to 1000 pilots/year (75 aircraft/year) transferring half or maybe the majority of present Group II ops to the new entity and reinvent a service-oriented airline with employees who haven't been so abused and are not jaded. The former AA would probably just become a limited Group II and predominantly Group IV International carrier retaining the AA brand. AA = 110 seats or greater, the new entity all ops with less.


    But, in this scenario it must be acknowledged it could change the ENTIRE US Airline Industry as much as deregulation did as it would put enormous pressure on the two premier legacies to bust scope too or come up with a viable counterplan. The LCC's could compete though and arguably with better products then AA or any new entity related to it as clearly, the focus here is not on quality, but "bottom line" profits.
    We all know you are crazy with your rantings and what not but the above, well that’s just straight jacket material Dr. Lecter.

    How owe about some Shock and Awe. Envoy to become THE biggest national airline in the near future. Details to come...

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    Yup. Bigger even than Skywest.

    Even your newly minted sidekick, CUJO can't help himself and is back on the sidelines cheering for Envoy. Why? He said it himself. Envoy is flat out where you want to be. Welcome back to the cheer squad Cuj.

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    Don't believe me? Go over to APC and see for yourself.

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    Sorry “D” this thread is way over your head. Go back to your little regional world.

    Tic, Toc...
    Mr. 2021

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    We all know you are crazy with your rantings and what not but the above, well that’s just straight jacket material Dr. Lecter.

    How owe about some Shock and Awe. Envoy to become THE biggest national airline in the near future. Details to come...
    I know this is an exercise in futility, but I'll ask again for the umpteenth time...….how about a coherent response ?

    I'd love to hear your version of a potential future. As it stands now, the AAG regionals are severely limited in their ability to expand with large RJ's due to scope. That means either go forward investing in small RJ's, virtually all of which are no longer in production or milk clapped out used models until they can't be patched together anymore. That won't get them more then a few years down the road. Of course, even with new A/C, AAG would want attractive financing and from a financial standpoint, investing in small RJ's with limited revenue generating potential and high fuel burn for that revenue, they won't get it....not with their balance sheet. BIG risk too, considering the future available pilot pool. What are the alternatives for both AA and the WO Regional system considering both are essentially maxed out ? AA is actually contracting fleet-wise, but the crews are flying more. Unfortunately for AAG, they are maxed out too. Need more revenue for more profits. Need more flexibility to compete with both the two premier legacies and the LCC's, AA being neither. Big bills coming due and profits are WAY below forecast.


    So...…..what's your view looking forward to solve all these issues ?


    Hint : Clicking your heels Dorothy and wishing for home isn't one of them and neither is plugging your ears, closing your eyes and saying "La...La...La...La..." repeatedly. What's the plan, Stan ? A large order for hundreds of new replacement CRJ-700's at 70 seats or so (which BTW, Envoy will soon no longer operate) ?


    Well...……...we're STILL waiting.
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 03-07-2019 at 02:32 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    Yup. Bigger even than Skywest.

    Even your newly minted sidekick, CUJO can't help himself and is back on the sidelines cheering for Envoy. Why? He said it himself. Envoy is flat out where you want to be. Welcome back to the cheer squad Cuj.

    Thats a bit of an exaggeration.... it’s better that TSA, Mesa, Commutair, GoJets and the like....
    i don’t recommend anything but wholly owned in the FFD regional segment currently due to the worsening pilot shortage.
    When push comes to shove, the jobs will be pulled back in house. No need to buy your feed contract carriers like last time... just pull the flying, the jobs, and as a result their pilots back to the WO’s.

    that said, I’d go to Endeavor before any of the AAG ones.
    __________________________________________________ __

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    Dont answer the dadouce, hopefully he slithers away into a running lawnmower.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NoOtPilot View Post
    This is what they do, cash out at the top.

    3E07CB70-8995-4C69-89F5-22DB9C09F32C.jpg
    B67EE708-4228-4AF9-9D77-2DD820526376.jpg

    Frank Lorenzo did exactly the same thing.

    Just Facts
    you do realize he is only paid in stock. He doesn’t receive bonuses or cash. Wouldn’t it be considered normal to sell some for income?

    All of the facts

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    Why sell at $30’s when you can sell at $50’s
    Knowing that the time you have left in the company the stock price will not get above the price you sold,
    will be a huge loss. DP is one of the smartest guys in aviation industry, he learned from Lorenzo’s mistakes.
    And he will succeed.

    And don’t forget...Robert Isom dumped his, 90 days later.

    Just Facts
    Last edited by NoOtPilot; 04-29-2019 at 05:55 PM.

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    ALL the porkers at the trough ca$hed out more shares a few days ago. Many are convinced the 1Q numbers were fudged upward to ensure certain bonuses were paid out to non-union mid-level managers.

    I don’t blame them a bit. Considering AA’s risks going forward, milking their stock cow regularly is probably a smart move. Another indication pilots should take similar precautions by substantially increasing savings, delaying large expenditures and considering other career options more seriously.

    What’s in your savings account ?

    Caveat Emptor.
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 04-29-2019 at 06:08 PM.

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    Parker has lost confidence that he has extended the contract with skywest for 38 crj700 ops. So much for growth or qol improvements.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ardvark View Post
    Parker has lost confidence that he has extended the contract with skywest for 38 crj700 ops. So much for growth or qol improvements.
    Anyone care to guess who gets first dibs on the fly file?

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    It's not us and fact of the matter we are last to get the shi+ file

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