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Thread: Is Doug Parker intention to force a strike?

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    Is Doug Parker intention to force a strike?


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    Is he setting millions of dollars in preparation for a strike, building a Cash Contingency Plan or
    maybe getting ready for a showdown and Bankruptcy?

    31B53D00-7101-42E3-B01C-B563CF0CA32F.jpg
    D3F98DC9-F155-40AF-A4C9-D102EAEF0167.jpg

    American said it will delay delivery of some new planes starting next year to conserve cash from 2019 through 2021.
    ~AAG: July 28, 2018~

    Strike, bankruptcy or furloughs...time will tell. All contracts are on the table, pilots, flight attendants, mechanics, ground handlers...wonder why?

    Only one man will walk away from this fight.

    Put your financial house in order, just in case.
    Last edited by NoOtPilot; 02-12-2019 at 11:46 PM.
    I always tell the truth. Even when I lie.

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    There won’t be another major airline labor group strike allowed in the US. Precedent set by Bill Clinton in 1997 with his appointment of the presidential emergency board to stop the AA pilot strike. A strike at one of the big 3 or Southwest would be considered too disruptive to the economy.

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    Not strike that's for sure, but the length of the negotiations will most likely be years. DP will use bankruptcy as a negotiating tool to get what he wants.
    Remember this is the new american, in other words US air with new lipstick. Now the fun begins.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ardvark View Post
    Not strike that's for sure, but the length of the negotiations will most likely be years. DP will use bankruptcy as a negotiating tool to get what he wants.
    Remember this is the new american, in other words US air with new lipstick. Now the fun begins.
    Agreed. As already stated, it is impossible for AA pilots to strike in the rigged RLA/NMB system. More likely, AA will pursue another “strategic” bankruptcy, not because it wants to, but because it has no other choice. Many analysts are forecasting the next recession soon, likely by 2020. That means air travel will soften as less jobs require less business travel and leisure travel declines due to lack of excess funds. This in turn means less revenue and excess capacity as load factors drop. Unlikely any support to offset this with raised fares, so AAG’s profit is at strong risk of sinking further.

    OT's graphs show that even in the best economy (even this “shadow” economy that gives the impression things are better then they really are), AA’s profits are falling WELL short of Parker’s stated prognostications. WELL short......and on a downward trajectory when it should actually should be going UP. Why is AA so different from Delta, United, Southwest and others in this respect ? (Read MAJOR Red Flag). What happens when the economy tanks which is inevitable in a financially cyclic world ? To add to AAG’s woes going forward, the next several years require them to pay large sums to both their employee pensions and servicing the “good” debt on all these new airplanes (including Envoy’s “crown jewels”). What happens when further reduced profits are combined with significantly increased expenses on a corporation with 2.5 and soon perhaps a 3 debt-to-liquidity ratio and 22 billion in total debt ?

    IMO, the same thing that occurred in 2011, just 9-10 years later. Parker may not know how to run a global carrier (as demonstrated by AA’s performance and product quality rankings), but he most certainly knows how to successfully navigate a strategic bankruptcy, as after all he’s done it multiple times in the past. It’s the only chance of getting Scope changes and the cherry on top of dumping the pensions to the PBGC. The first gives them some flexibility they desperately need and the second unloads a lot of empty debt (debt or future expense that produces zero value). There’s no such thing as a free lunch though and it will hopelessly poison the AA brand as morale at American Airlines will go from its present noisy stick-shaker and snap into an unrecoverable inverted flat spin. I think the future of AA isn’t AT AA (at least for the bottom third of the AA pilot group and any future hires), it’s at a new entity built up from the present Eagle system, at least domestically. The question is, can they get enough hungry, young newbies happy to fly 100-seaters for at or near present Envoy wages and treatment ? If not, AAG continues its slow death spiral. Actually, more likely they can get the more junior AA pilots to fly them vs. unemployment, but they'll need more then that. Mainline AA will likely in either case simply wither until a fraction of its present size unlikely producing anything more then a Walmart-like product. This will take time though and timing and time are the variables no one can accurately predict.

    The ultimate destination appears assured though and I wouldn’t rule out partial fragmentation of AA in the future, especially on the domestic side. It’s why I say flowing to the last car in this broken down, wobbly train with 15,000 pilots isn’t likely to get you to a seat in the locomotive with a neat cap and tooting the steam horn......at least not without major setbacks and turmoil in the process. Good luck if that’s your goal, but again, I’d have plenty of savings and plan B in your hip pocket. One thing is virtually certain and that is a job at AA as a pilot will fall financially WELL short of many other career carriers like Delta Airlines. The good news is there should always be a need for pilots in the future, so there will be options. The bad news is it likely won’t be at AA or at least any idea of what the former “traditional” AA was which is never coming back and seniority is everything, so choose your future rear train car carefully because it’s always better to choose a solid, stable well-running train the first time around vs. transitioning from the middle car of a broken down one years later.
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 02-13-2019 at 07:19 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Remudaflyer View Post
    There won’t be another major airline labor group strike allowed in the US. Precedent set by Bill Clinton in 1997 with his appointment of the presidential emergency board to stop the AA pilot strike. A strike at one of the big 3 or Southwest would be considered too disruptive to the economy.
    Liberal establishment politicians owned by big business. Next time somebody says too disruptive, ask why it’s not too disruptive for Air France, Lufthansa, Quantas and other major airlines in their own countries? Almost sounds like too big to fail.... we know how much of a pig at through fest that was for corporate America.

    liberal politicians have created laws, committees, boards, and acts all designed to strip away your right to demand better and refuse to work as an indentured servant. RLA is a bad joke in today’s economy and business models. NMB solely exists to delay strikes long enough to hopefully get an agreement. It’s all delay tactics meant to benefit the companies.
    Last edited by Cujo665; 02-14-2019 at 04:13 PM.
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    A new hire at Envoy today will upgrade inside of 1 year and flow to AA just a few years after.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    A new hire at Envoy today will upgrade inside of 1 year and flow to AA just a few years after.
    Only if they already have 121 time, because they certainly aren’t getting 1,000 hours in one year. I’m hearing guys are leaving after six months because they aren’t flying enough....
    as usual, your spinning.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cujo665 View Post
    Only if they already have 121 time, because they certainly aren’t getting 1,000 hours in one year. I’m hearing guys are leaving after six months because they aren’t flying enough....
    as usual, your spinning.
    Heckuva a lot better than the 2.5/6 that was being touted a few years back. Things at Envoy have really opened up. Growth has absolutely exploded here and it's all good for those that want a career at American Airlines.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    A new hire at Envoy today will upgrade inside of 1 year and flow to AA just a few years after.
    That equates to a about a 90% turnover of your “3000-3500 pilot airline” about every 3 years or so considering outside attrition. That means Envoy will not only have to hire, but train almost 900-1000 pilots/year in perpetuity.

    Good luck with that.

    Of course, that assumes Doug Parker pulls one hell of a rabbit out of his hat over and over in the coming years and there even IS a flow-thru.

    Good luck with that too.

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    Watch the capitulation by envoy pilots, will bring tears to you eyes.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    Heckuva a lot better than the 2.5/6 that was being touted a few years back. Things at Envoy have really opened up. Growth has absolutely exploded here and it's all good for those that want a career at American Airlines.
    Envoy grow only if American shrinks. The flow is still on course to stop after 2021. If you have 7 years of your life to throw away, let this company sell you the flow...do your homework, get to the facts, is the only way you can beat the flow and end up in a real mainline.
    Last edited by NoOtPilot; 02-15-2019 at 12:48 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    Heckuva a lot better than the 2.5/6 that was being touted a few years back. Things at Envoy have really opened up. Growth has absolutely exploded here and it's all good for those that want a career at American Airlines.
    Growth? You’re smoking crack. We were 3200 pilots before their Comair II crap. Envoy is barely over 2400 now. You’re such a joke.
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    dacuj just likes to stroke himself. you have to understand where the SA dacuj comes from, he is a management suck up that spills b.s. all over himself.
    Sir, can I have another.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    That equates to a about a 90% turnover of your “3000-3500 pilot airline” about every 3 years or so considering outside attrition. That means Envoy will not only have to hire, but train almost 900-1000 pilots/year in perpetuity.

    Good luck with that.

    Of course, that assumes Doug Parker pulls one hell of a rabbit out of his hat over and over in the coming years and there even IS a flow-thru.

    Good luck with that too.
    You don't just get to that number overnight. Training capacity plays a big part. Envoy is methodically, and smartly, growing to that 3000 plus number. Sure, with the amount of guys at that door trying to get in, Envoy could go big and bring in 150 per month. But you would still have a bottleneck with training capacity.

    Even IS a flow through? GMAFB. It's contractual.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    You don't just get to that number overnight. Training capacity plays a big part. Envoy is methodically, and smartly, growing to that 3000 plus number. Sure, with the amount of guys at that door trying to get in, Envoy could go big and bring in 150 per month. But you would still have a bottleneck with training capacity.
    Thanks for proving my point. I look forward to watching Envoy get even 100/month consistently (and forever).

    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    Even IS a flow through? GMAFB. It's contractual.
    I have no intention of giving you a fingerbate. As for Envoy’s contract, it’s considered a joke by Envoy management. AA pilots contract isn’t a whole lot better. At least there is SOME defense of it though. The point was even with the flow being contractual, it requires AA to be hiring pilots. If scope is busted at AA (likely at some point in the near future), AA won’t need to hire for perhaps several years and the flow stops as bigger, shinier “Crown Jewels” arrive into the Eagle system replacing a significant portion of mainline including many of your 737’s. When that happens, as a very junior AA pilot, it will suck to be you.

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    MOST people out there coming up in the flying ranks want to work for a company that is rock solid financially and provides a "one stop shop" for your career. In other words, when you hire on here, you don't ever need to look elsewhere. Envoy fits that bill very nicely. Wholly owned by AA with extremely deep pockets, the company is the largest major airline in the world and has a rock solid reputation. From the first day you set foot on property at Envoy, you will never have to go to a job search website again. Because when your number comes up, you simply transfer to the AA division and continue onward and upward. There is a reason that Envoy is wildly successful and the majority of up and comers are trying to get a foot in the door. For your answer, see the above.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    MOST people out there coming up in the flying ranks want to work for a company that is rock solid financially and provides a "one stop shop" for your career. In other words, when you hire on here, you don't ever need to look elsewhere. Envoy fits that bill very nicely. Wholly owned by AA with extremely deep pockets, the company is the largest major airline in the world and has a rock solid reputation. From the first day you set foot on property at Envoy, you will never have to go to a job search website again. Because when your number comes up, you simply transfer to the AA division and continue onward and upward. There is a reason that Envoy is wildly successful and the majority of up and comers are trying to get a foot in the door. For your answer, see the above.
    "Rock solid financially" ?

    "No need to look elsewhere" ?

    Not much of an answer.........at least one grounded in reality. Rock solid reputation ? LOL !


    With whom ? The frontline employees ? Performance analysts ? Financial analysts ?

    I think you've gone off your meds again (with the exception of your choice of self-medication).
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 02-15-2019 at 12:45 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    You don't just get to that number overnight. Training capacity plays a big part. Envoy is methodically, and smartly, growing to that 3000 plus number. Sure, with the amount of guys at that door trying to get in, Envoy could go big and bring in 150 per month. But you would still have a bottleneck with training capacity.

    Even IS a flow through? GMAFB. It's contractual.
    Hey speaking of contractual... how many grievances are currently filed for contract violations? Just a question. Ive always wondered.

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    Obviously not well versed in the history of this industry. The music will stop at some point.
    Until then, the Towne Crier and his band of idiots will continue to present the illusion that an envoy pilot is an AA pilot.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pinkvisual View Post
    Hey speaking of contractual... how many grievances are currently filed for contract violations? Just a question. Ive always wondered.
    Youre wasting time asking him to answer specific questions.
    He never has.

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