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    Finally....


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    At least it’s being recognized as “part” of the problem.
    https://skift.com/2019/02/05/america...o-improve/amp/

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    Interesting, but I doubt they will ever be totally removed.

    But if they are, PHX base and CRJ 550s. You heard it here first! 😂

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dvtpilot View Post
    Interesting, but I doubt they will ever be totally removed.

    But if they are, PHX base and CRJ 550s. You heard it here first! ��
    Does AAG have the funds or financing to buy new 50-seat RJ’s ? Even if they did, why do that when they can just convert present CRJ-700’s to a similar cabin layout and that way they wouldn’t have to negotiate rates for a “new” aircraft type. Slightly cheaper pilots and one less F/A along with cheaper mod costs would be the lowball way to go and we all know how this is a “bottom line” operation expense-wise.

    Wouldn’t impact Envoy anyhow as Envoy is slated to eventually be a E-175 carrier, but could result in CRJ operators taking some of Envoys flying as Envoy’s clapped out 145’s hit their dotage and are converted to beer cans and soda bottles. Just another example of how boxed-in AA and Envoy are in. Either Envoy contracts as the large RJ Scope limits are already met and thus have minimal large RJ acquisition capabilities or choke up cash and introduce a new 50-seater at Envoy or consolidate with another CRJ operator.

    Finances, scope and fleet put a Envoy in more of a jam as time goes on.
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 02-06-2019 at 10:37 PM.

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    The big key will be the AA contract negotiations. As long as scope isn’t eroded, or even better to be recaptured then it’ll work out. They don’t need to buy anything new but a few retrofits to put on premium markets like XNA could work. More dollars per seat makes more sense than el cheapo dollars filled to the brim.

    I do wonder what the limits are for the 145 fleet as far as age/cycles. Not enough to invest any time in actually researching it though. I’ll miss the 145 when it’s gone. But maybe I’m the only one haha

    Speculation is fun.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dvtpilot View Post
    The big key will be the AA contract negotiations. As long as scope isn’t eroded, or even better to be recaptured then it’ll work out. They don’t need to buy anything new but a few retrofits to put on premium markets like XNA could work. More dollars per seat makes more sense than el cheapo dollars filled to the brim.

    I do wonder what the limits are for the 145 fleet as far as age/cycles. Not enough to invest any time in actually researching it though. I’ll miss the 145 when it’s gone. But maybe I’m the only one haha

    Speculation is fun.
    No Scope changes, at least willingly so AAG must work with what they have. Since 2/3 of what they have to work with in the regional system is in need of replacement, it will interesting to see how they solve that. I see few good options except shuffle the board pieces and pray, which is what they are doing. As for “more dollars per seat”, not likely. GDP is heading down and the economy is slated to cool, so AA’s competition not in their predicament will have little pressure to raise fares as there will be enough seats to go around. That’s likely one reason United is reducing seat count in the goal to improve product. A GoJet CRJ-550 head-to-head against an an Envoy 145 ? That’s a no brainer for the customer.

    The competition doesn’t have nearly 2 Billion in pension and debt servicing expenses due this year either. This time next year both the pilots and mechanics at AA will almost certainly be in the same situation they are in now and that’s not good for the product, which means AA and Envoy will likely once again be “also ran’s” in that dept. again. Of course, there’s always hope and hope is a good thing.
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 02-06-2019 at 11:14 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dvtpilot View Post
    The big key will be the AA contract negotiations. As long as scope isn’t eroded, or even better to be recaptured then it’ll work out. They don’t need to buy anything new but a few retrofits to put on premium markets like XNA could work. More dollars per seat makes more sense than el cheapo dollars filled to the brim.

    I do wonder what the limits are for the 145 fleet as far as age/cycles. Not enough to invest any time in actually researching it though. I’ll miss the 145 when it’s gone. But maybe I’m the only one haha

    Speculation is fun.
    2023 145’s GONE.
    “I always tell the truth. Even when I lie.”

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    Quote Originally Posted by NoOtPilot View Post
    2023 145’s GONE.
    So, that means either AAG commits billion(s ?) to revamp 2/3 of Envoy's fleet with new "small" RJ's, Scope is altered allowing more "large" RJ's (also costing billions) or major contraction. I know what AAG wants to do, but the question is, how can they first make it happen and then second, how can they afford it ?

    They can rework a number of larger CRJ's that are younger, but for the Eagle system to perform its function, it will need substantial replacement aircraft and huge money to finance that. That's why Parker's claim of being on the downside of aircraft acquisition and expense while others are on the upside in a couple of years doesn't hold water. Parker has an entire three carrier wholly-owned regional system in need of expensive nourishment in the coming years or a major part of AA's revenue stream evaporates.

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    Nah, he will use that as the excuse to allow rah, mesa and skw to grow so extensively to absorb the w/o flying if those three acquire the aircraft on there individual balance sheet.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ardvark View Post
    Nah, he will use that as the excuse to allow rah, mesa and skw to grow so extensively to absorb the w/o flying if those three acquire the aircraft on there individual balance sheet.
    Agreed, that's a likely outcome because...…………..well, AAG has few options right now absent going "scorched Earth" on mainline, will have none this time next year. But, that puts Envoy into major contraction (not extinction) though. Another option is to spin Envoy off (perhaps along with the other WO's merged) as a non-WO with its own "balance sheet" and stock ? Right now though, AAG is hamstrung by scope, has marginal liquidity considering its debt and isn't likely to get prime rates on loans, if it even can get a loan, also due to its debt/liquidity ratio. All of a sudden they'd be adding "not so good" debt to their present supposedly "good" debt, but the reality is that there is NO "good" debt to an entity with such a lopsided balance sheet and questionable profits going forward.

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    What happens to the flow in the case of a Spin Off?

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    Quote Originally Posted by NoOtPilot View Post
    What happens to the flow in the case of a Spin Off?
    Could be renegotiated, I suppose. But owned or not, AAG has a vested interest in staffing their regional carriers. The problem is, if Envoy contracts to a much smaller piece of the pie due to the situation(s) described previously, offering flow only to it doesn't meet that need as the other carriers (the future majority) would wither and that defeats the purpose of the flow in the first place. They'd have to offer flow to all, meaning Envoy also gets a smaller piece of the flow pie, BEING smaller. Only so many AA seats to go around and if Envoy is hamstrung in the future and shrinks, it must accept fewer flow slots. Envoy ALPA knows if they don't, they'll be cast out of heaven into the pits of hell as Persona Non Grata.


    Go along to get along.

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    So let me get this straight - they’re going to give Mesa extra time to improve performance and Mesa promises to do the maintenance they were supposed to do anyway?

    What a joke. Nothing will change and those cockroaches will remain an infestation in DFW.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Vne View Post
    So let me get this straight - they’re going to give Mesa extra time to improve performance and Mesa promises to do the maintenance they were supposed to do anyway?

    What a joke. Nothing will change and those cockroaches will remain an infestation in DFW.
    Why is this surprising? You do realize do you not, that the “cockroaches” as you call them have been invited into your former living room by the landlord, yes ? In fact, without them, the landlord is less able to heat the house and MUST embrace them. Can you blame them for the invitation, nourishment and now coddling ?

    Unfortunately, considering AAG’s finances, Scope limits and Envoy’s fleet, I think you can expect more of these so-called pests to eat from your plate in the future. In fact, some may even plant themselves on your couch and take over the TV remote. You really have little control and are really along for the ride. You have to admit now that the landlords have every intention of maximizing the success of others likely at your expense.

    That’s what it means IMO when you sign up for Envoy and the hope of flow to AA. History is there to review and it’s up to every pilot to choose or not to do that and accept the situation and risks. Those who choose not to, simply relinquish any responsibility for what the future brings and essentially agree to whatever that is. Those who “buy in”, must beware.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    Why is this surprising? You do realize do you not, that the “cockroaches” as you call them have been invited into your former living room by the landlord, yes ? In fact, without them, the landlord is less able to heat the house and MUST embrace them. Can you blame them for the invitation, nourishment and now coddling ?

    Unfortunately, considering AAG’s finances, Scope limits and Envoy’s fleet, I think you can expect more of these so-called pests to eat from your plate in the future. In fact, some may even plant themselves on your couch and take over the TV remote. You really have little control and are really along for the ride. You have to admit now that the landlords have every intention of maximizing the success of others likely at your expense.

    That’s what it means IMO when you sign up for Envoy and the hope of flow to AA. History is there to review and it’s up to every pilot to choose or not to do that and accept the situation and risks. Those who choose not to, simply relinquish any responsibility for what the future brings and essentially agree to whatever that is. Those who “buy in”, must beware.
    What's not surprising is Mr. "I hate Envoy and American Airlines" yet again prediciting doom for AA and its subsidiaries with absolutely nothing of substance to back it up. Other than a few TA thread losers hanging around the crew room and beotching about how bad the company is.

    *AA is out of altitude, airspeed and ideas.
    *Better have a backup plan if you work at Envoy.
    *AA yet again is burning the walls of the house to heat it.

    Do you realize how ignorant this sounds? Nobody pays any attention to you or your hate filled posts. American Airlines is the biggest major airline in the WORLD. Get that? Not in the U.S. Not in the Western Hemisphere. The WORLD. Guess you are just seeing things through sewage splattered glasses. Yet again you've offered up another way that AA is going to fail without providing any facts or data to back it up. Sounds familiar doesn't it?

    American Airlines will not fail. The new American has arrived and it is much, much better than before. Good earnings report, recent stock boost, new airplanes arriving, great new marketing and cohesive brand. Believe me, I know the data and Envoy ain't hurting for new hires. The "pipeline" is literally full to capacity with the ranks of young and eager flight instructors, many Gold Seal by the way, who are highly educated and thus realize exactly what I'm saying above. Which is WHY they are showing up in herds.

    How about some data to prove what you are saying? We're waiting.......

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    What's not surprising is Mr. "I hate Envoy and American Airlines" yet again prediciting doom for AA and its subsidiaries with absolutely nothing of substance to back it up. Other than a few TA thread losers hanging around the crew room and beotching about how bad the company is.

    *AA is out of altitude, airspeed and ideas.
    *Better have a backup plan if you work at Envoy.
    *AA yet again is burning the walls of the house to heat it.

    Do you realize how ignorant this sounds? Nobody pays any attention to you or your hate filled posts. American Airlines is the biggest major airline in the WORLD. Get that? Not in the U.S. Not in the Western Hemisphere. The WORLD. Guess you are just seeing things through sewage splattered glasses. Yet again you've offered up another way that AA is going to fail without providing any facts or data to back it up. Sounds familiar doesn't it?

    American Airlines will not fail. The new American has arrived and it is much, much better than before. Good earnings report, recent stock boost, new airplanes arriving, great new marketing and cohesive brand. Believe me, I know the data and Envoy ain't hurting for new hires. The "pipeline" is literally full to capacity with the ranks of young and eager flight instructors, many Gold Seal by the way, who are highly educated and thus realize exactly what I'm saying above. Which is WHY they are showing up in herds.

    How about some data to prove what you are saying? We're waiting.......
    Somebody is paying attention to me. ^^^^^^^^

    Too bad it’s someone who is clueless. Shouldn’t you be posting pictures of obese people ?

    BTW.........we’re STILL waiting.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NoOtPilot View Post
    2023 145’s GONE.
    2024
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    The real hit was the five years from 2013 to 2018 as the 1500 hour rule went into effect it meant several more years instructing before being able to apply to jet 121 airline jobs. We’re at the point now where a steady supply will come from the colleges each year. The problem is it’s not enough for all regional staffing. So, for the time being bonus money is still needed, and street captains are still needed. That could change as soon as late this year in my estimate as more than enough FOs will be reaching upgrade mins. Shortly thereafter the bonus checks will go away too. They’ll increase hiring at AA to be 85% from the three WO’s. Effectively making indentured servitude the only way to keep AA in play for a career option. They’ll let the flow drive the staffing. With only fighter pilots, astronauts, and the very select few going through the front door..... and it will work.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cujo665 View Post
    The real hit was the five years from 2013 to 2018 as the 1500 hour rule went into effect it meant several more years instructing before being able to apply to jet 121 airline jobs. We’re at the point now where a steady supply will come from the colleges each year. The problem is it’s not enough for all regional staffing. So, for the time being bonus money is still needed, and street captains are still needed. That could change as soon as late this year in my estimate as more than enough FOs will be reaching upgrade mins. Shortly thereafter the bonus checks will go away too. They’ll increase hiring at AA to be 85% from the three WO’s. Effectively making indentured servitude the only way to keep AA in play for a career option. They’ll let the flow drive the staffing. With only fighter pilots, astronauts, and the very select few going through the front door..... and it will work.
    If think many of the truly attractive pilots from a competitive standpoint can and will bail from AA when they crunch the numbers. AA’s future is basically the “also ran’s” among pilots and a stepping stone to the top tier pilot employers. Not to say they aren’t good pilots, but the more assertive and qualified ones will see the “new” AA for what it really is;

    A consolation prize.

    They will have the capability in the future to capitalize on the many opportunities that will exist. Present and future AA pilots will be out many hundreds of thousands and even millions of dollars for those younger over the life of their careers compared to their peers at Delta, United and SWA. Just as importantly, their QWL will suck compared to the same. AA pilots will compete though with the likes of Spirit and Allegiant pilots. That all hinges of course on the assumption AA will not fragment or unload much of its operation to its regional network. In that case, all bets are off.

    Clearly, it’s obvious nothing has changed and the “new” AA (and Envoy) is the same as the old AA and Envoy. If there was any doubt, the last week or so should convince anyone paying attention considering management’s recent conduct in interaction with their pilot “team” at both AA and Envoy. New executives milking the cash and moving on, sure, but labor is set to relive the past. I think it’s clear they don’t give a crap about employees and especially pilots. Never have, never will.

    IMO, you want a real “team” ? Go to Delta or their regional system. Stay at Envoy/AA ? No problem.........but understand what you are signing up for. I think it’s time to wake up and smell the sewage boys and girls.
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 02-10-2019 at 12:55 AM.

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