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Thread: For those selling flow

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    Super Moderator Cujo665's Avatar
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    For those selling flow


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    As crazy as the hiring was this year, it only picks up from here on out. Meanwhile, after the L10-11, the AA Envoy flow slows to 25% of each class.

    Here are are the most up to date retirement schedules....

    BA7A927F-00AC-4105-B938-881E781C081F.jpg
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    I like how you posted AA as third, should have been fourth (or last). The only thing going for us is future movement.

    By comparison, can you add in total approximations of the main regionals? That should really open the eyes of the new guys banking on the flow (baring a major change in hiring practices).


    Happy New Year

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    Super Moderator Cujo665's Avatar
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    Ill put that on my list of things Im working on. However, I do recall back in late 2015 we had roughly 16,000 to 18,000 pilots in the regional airlines. We knew then there werent enough regional pilots to anywhere near fill the mainline retirements alone. Then add in growth, LCC growth and ACMI growth....
    Last edited by Cujo665; 01-01-2019 at 12:59 AM.

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    Happy New Year Y'all (Damn-Yankee). Thank You to the Real Cujo for the retirement schedule. Information is power.

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    Quote Originally Posted by styx View Post
    I like how you posted AA as third, should have been fourth (or last). The only thing going for us is future movement.

    By comparison, can you add in total approximations of the main regionals? That should really open the eyes of the new guys banking on the flow (baring a major change in hiring practices).


    Happy New Year
    Remember though “future movement” is usually impacted by any significant global, industry or in this case, AA related situations. AA’s retirement schedule looks attractive, but that can easily end up being blunted. It should be particularly concerning should an economic downturn put AA into a liquidity crisis and they manufacture that as a reason for another strategic (but brief) Chapter 11 filing. With their debt obligations and cash-on-hand, a couple of quarterly losses and it’s easy to see that occurring, especially with a concurrently low stock share price.

    Going forward, AA needs a minimum of about 2 Billion in annual profit just to service the debt on all those new airplanes and feed their pension obligations. Absent that, they’ll get into trouble and fast. A quick trip to BK (in and out in 6-9 months), means they can dump their pensions to the PBGC and likely whack scope at the same time. The first sheds HUGE debt and balances their books better and the second frees up limits on outsourcing hundreds of mainline jets which could be dumped and replaced with new NextGen RJ’s for the Eagle system and you know how Parker LOVES RJ’s. By the claims of the Three Stooges here, there will be no problem getting pilots to “flock” to places like Envoy, so what could go wrong with that ? Up to 200 aging Group II AA jets (older 737 and Airbus) could be moved out over about 3 years or so and replaced with a like number of 86-100 seat RJ’s at Eagle. AA would bleed their pilot ranks through retirement attrition and the flow would stop for several years. If the share price is low (as it is now), such a move would boost shareholder value at the same time. Both management and shareholders make $ on a stronger share price.

    A “win-win-win” situation for AAG, management and shareholders just like always. Not so good for pilots though, at least at AA or those hoping to flow. The risks here are VERY real and not long-shot fantasy. The very consistent industry “cycle” is well overdue for reversal, but we know most pilots don’t pay attention to that, only hopes and dreams of shiny airplanes and big bucks.

    Hopes and dreams............in realty, that’s all AA’s “future movement” is built on. Just like in the past though, that foundation has always been shaky and temporary. Happy New Year and as always...............

    Caveat Emptor.
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 01-01-2019 at 10:01 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    Remember though “future movement” is usually impacted by any significant global, industry or in this case, AA related situations. AA’s retirement schedule looks attractive, but that can easily end up being blunted. It should be particularly concerning should an economic downturn put AA into a liquidity crisis and they manufacture that as a reason for another strategic (but brief) Chapter 11 filing. With their debt obligations and cash-on-hand, a couple of quarterly losses and it’s easy to see that occurring, especially with a concurrently low stock share price.

    Going forward, AA needs a minimum of about 2 Billion in annual profit just to service the debt on all those new airplanes and feed their pension obligations. Absent that, they’ll get into trouble and fast. A quick trip to BK (in and out in 6-9 months), means they can dump their pensions to the PBGC and likely whack scope at the same time. The first sheds HUGE debt and balances their books better and the second frees up limits on outsourcing hundreds of mainline jets which could be dumped and replaced with new NextGen RJ’s for the Eagle system and you know how Parker LOVES RJ’s. By the claims of the Three Stooges here, there will be no problem getting pilots to “flock” to places like Envoy, so what could go wrong with that ? Up to 200 aging Group II AA jets (older 737 and Airbus) could be moved out over about 3 years or so and replaced with a like number of 86-100 seat RJ’s at Eagle. AA would bleed their pilot ranks through retirement attrition and the flow would stop for several years. If the share price is low (as it is now), such a move would boost shareholder value at the same time. Both management and shareholders make $ on a stronger share price.

    A “win-win-win” situation for AAG, management and shareholders just like always. Not so good for pilots though, at least at AA or those hoping to flow. The risks here are VERY real and not long-shot fantasy. The very consistent industry “cycle” is well overdue for reversal, but we know most pilots don’t pay attention to that, only hopes and dreams of shiny airplanes and big bucks.

    Hopes and dreams............in realty, that’s all AA’s “future movement” is built on. Just like in the past though, that foundation has always been shaky and temporary. Happy New Year and as always...............

    Caveat Emptor.
    Another chapter from the mainfesto. Happy New Year by the way!

    Dude, about half of what you say in the paragraph above is so far out there it's like saying aliens landed years ago and have control of the U.S. power grid now from their base in Antarctica. Do you seriously not consider how MANY pilots AA is going to need over the next 10 years? They are number one on the list with the most retirements in that time frame. Seriously good for Envoy flows. AA is going to need pilots and in big numbers. I would not be the least bit surprised if they came back to Envoy and wanted to re negotiate the flow part of the contract INCREASING the number of pilots coming from the Voy. Like I said, the numbers they are going to need are staggering and Envoy is a major source of these pilots. I would not be shocked to see a 3 year flow out in the future.

    As has been mentioned many, many times before. AA has a large amount of debt but it's good debt. You can't grow and add 78's, buses and 73's without using some leverage. That is exactly what has happened.

    Now, go cry over your spilled milk somewhere else.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    Another chapter from the mainfesto. Happy New Year by the way!

    Dude, about half of what you say in the paragraph above is so far out there it's like saying aliens landed years ago and have control of the U.S. power grid now from their base in Antarctica. Do you seriously not consider how MANY pilots AA is going to need over the next 10 years? They are number one on the list with the most retirements in that time frame. Seriously good for Envoy flows. AA is going to need pilots and in big numbers. I would not be the least bit surprised if they came back to Envoy and wanted to re negotiate the flow part of the contract INCREASING the number of pilots coming from the Voy. Like I said, the numbers they are going to need are staggering and Envoy is a major source of these pilots. I would not be shocked to see a 3 year flow out in the future.

    As has been mentioned many, many times before. AA has a large amount of debt but it's good debt. You can't grow and add 78's, buses and 73's without using some leverage. That is exactly what has happened.

    Now, go cry over your spilled milk somewhere else.
    Ahh yes...………..one of the resident stooges is here to start his usual 'nyuk, 'nyuk, 'nyuk….woo...woo...woo routine to usher in the New Year.

    No surprise here. I'd considered the possibility something of substance would be included in your first post of 2019, but alas...…….no luck. Oh well, there's always next year. Clearly, your zest in belittling REAL concerns as just "long-shot fantasy" will continue, but with only the reliance on a mirage of "hopes and dreams", you'll never get yourself into reality......or anyone else for that matter. No such thing as "good debt" BTW, especially when it overshadows your cash-on-hand by at least 3 times. AA already went BK in very much the same situation. AA has virtually no chance of getting more scope relief or eliminating their lead weight pension obligations absent Chapter 11 and they need both. How can AA grow with their balance sheet and self-inflicted financial conundrum ? How can they with their staffing issues ? How will they compete with Delta and United in the future with their product ? How will the inability to do those things ensure there is minimal risk going forward ? As long as fuel is cheap, they can kick the can, but what happens when the cycle turns ?


    Actually, the best option going forward IMO for the long run IS a Chapter 11 filing and that will NOT be good for the flow. Have you thought of getting a glove for your left hand similar to Michael Jackson ? Me thinks you'll be pulling Group II gear for many years. Now...………..back to your entertaining performance. Make us laugh some more, Curly.

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    Beagle: we're saying the same thing. Instead boosting my word count, I made my point in a couple sentences. Remember the audience.

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    The interesting thing is the arguments the fake Koojo's and fish of the world have used such as:

    When the CBA was being voted on, it was stated that if 1/2 of all retirements at AA are to be filled by Eagle/Envoy pilots then just the retirements alone wipe out the entire seniority list within roughly six years.

    That has turned out to be true and will likely remain so until the L10-11 guys. Back then I agreed with their assessment. That was before the days of the Fish and the fake Koojo's.

    Well, the same analogy applies to the industry. There are not enough regional pilots from all the regionals combined to fill even half of the total retirements over the next 10-14 years. This is why I've said that flow becomes less and less valuable as the shortage worsens. AAG will have to increase pay and working conditions continuously and/or fix the flow after the L10-11 guys. As I've also said before (long ago....) that we will eventually see a period of consolidation of WO's, and will likely see a period of buying other carriers. Not so much for their equipment or routes.... but for their pilot staffing and, in some cases, slots.
    Last edited by Cujo665; 01-03-2019 at 01:02 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cujo665 View Post
    The interesting thing is the arguments the fake Koojo's and fish of the world have used such as:

    When the CBA was being voted on, it was stated that if 1/2 of all retirements at AA are to be filled by Eagle/Envoy pilots then just the retirements alone wipe out the entire seniority list within roughly six years.

    That has turned out to be true and will likely remain so until the L10-11 guys. Back then I agreed with their assessment. That was before the days of the Fish and the fake Koojo's.

    Well, the same analogy applies to the industry. There are not enough regional pilots from all the regionals combined to fill even half of the total retirements over the next 10-14 years. This is why I've said that flow becomes less and less valuable as the shortage worsens. AAG will have to increase pay and working conditions continuously and/or fix the flow after the L10-11 guys. As I've also said before (long ago....) that we will eventually see a period of consolidation of WO's, and will likely see a period of buying other carriers. Not so much for their equipment or routes.... but for their pilot staffing and, in some cases, slots.
    Envoy won’t be the only player looking for pilots by “acquisition”. As the well continues to dry, look for a rapidly collapsing network. As for Envoy, in a consolidation scenario with the other WO’s, all pilots will have similar career expectations meaning time to flow (related to rate of flow) very possibly will not help Envoy pilots, especially those more junior. As the recent SLI at AA proves, pilots with significantly different DOH’s can be placed very unusually and not fairly depending on one’s POV. The end result very possibly would delay even further junior Envoy pilots as pilots from either or both of the other WO’s are feathered senior, even with a later DOH.

    As for an acquisition of another carrier by Envoy simply for pilots, that seems like a real gamble. If those pilots (who would have no flow expectations pre acquisition) were bumped to the back of the flow conga line, the incentive to stay vanishes and resulting attrition would likely blunt or even negate the whole purpose quickly. The other option (far more likely) would be to give these newly acquired pilots flow to AA based on seniority after integration (see the WO scenario above) which would then also again mean legacy Envoy pilots get the shaft and pushed back making room for “acquired” pilots alienating the Envoy sub-group also resulting in spiked attrition from the other direction. Either scenario thus is risky at best whether solely for pilots or not.

    As for any argument the second scenario of pilots with no flow expectations pre-merger leap-frogging Envoy pilots post integration not being realistic, once again history is an excellent teacher. When BizEx was acquired for a measly 20 E-135’s, those pilots did quite well in the SLI and had no flow-thru. Many flowed before legacy Eagle pilots then, some significantly sooner. This is now precedent.

    Just another undesirable by-product of having a flow, especially one poorly negotiated and benefitting management far more then pilots. The first is obvious, that being the creation of an environment most (especially those more senior and in Association leadership positions) won’t jeopardize and so the so-called “union” and pilot group become impotent squeak toys batted around by management like a cat in perpetuity, but also a complicated merger/acquisition situation almost certain to screw both Envoy and its pilots.
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 01-05-2019 at 10:38 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by styx View Post
    Beagle: we're saying the same thing. Instead boosting my word count, I made my point in a couple sentences. Remember the audience.
    I understood you to say the only thing Envoy pilots had going for them was attrition (at AA I assume). My response was essentially “maybe not”. If you’re buying into an idea I like high word counts without a point or purpose, you’re buying into the Three Stooges song-and-dance. Yes, some in the “audience” can’t handle more then a sentence or two, but the critical thinkers are more capable then that IMO..........and more receptive.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cujo665 View Post
    The interesting thing is the arguments the fake Koojo's and fish of the world have used such as:

    When the CBA was being voted on, it was stated that if 1/2 of all retirements at AA are to be filled by Eagle/Envoy pilots then just the retirements alone wipe out the entire seniority list within roughly six years.

    That has turned out to be true and will likely remain so until the L10-11 guys. Back then I agreed with their assessment. That was before the days of the Fish and the fake Koojo's.

    Well, the same analogy applies to the industry. There are not enough regional pilots from all the regionals combined to fill even half of the total retirements over the next 10-14 years. This is why I've said that flow becomes less and less valuable as the shortage worsens. AAG will have to increase pay and working conditions continuously and/or fix the flow after the L10-11 guys. As I've also said before (long ago....) that we will eventually see a period of consolidation of WO's, and will likely see a period of buying other carriers. Not so much for their equipment or routes.... but for their pilot staffing and, in some cases, slots.
    Finally, the fake Cuj agrees with me. Yep, the retirements at AA are the highest in the industry. I've said it before, it only helps Envoy. AA needs to find these pilots somewhere and Envoy is their best source. I seriously wouldn't be surprised one bit if AA reaches out and negotiates an even faster flow than we have now. They need the bodies desperately and being that Envoy is their biggest source plus we have the advantage of flying in the AA system, flying AA birds, using Jetnet, DECS, same payroll, same management, etc. It's seamless. 3 years to flow isn't out of the question. It's just a matter of when, not if.

    The pipeline is well stocked, contrary to the belief of some here, and there are guys out there begging to get into the pipeline program as I type. Who wouldn't want to work for AA? This was a huge point of contention from the detractors a couple of years ago. They all said we would NEVER have the pilots to keep functioning. Well, we proved em wrong. You announce an Envoy job fair and they come out of the woodwork like cockroaches tripping over each other to get in.

    Envoy is #1!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    Finally, the fake Cuj agrees with me. Yep, the retirements at AA are the highest in the industry. I've said it before, it only helps Envoy. AA needs to find these pilots somewhere and Envoy is their best source. I seriously wouldn't be surprised one bit if AA reaches out and negotiates an even faster flow than we have now. They need the bodies desperately and being that Envoy is their biggest source plus we have the advantage of flying in the AA system, flying AA birds, using Jetnet, DECS, same payroll, same management, etc. It's seamless. 3 years to flow isn't out of the question. It's just a matter of when, not if.

    The pipeline is well stocked, contrary to the belief of some here, and there are guys out there begging to get into the pipeline program as I type. Who wouldn't want to work for AA? This was a huge point of contention from the detractors a couple of years ago. They all said we would NEVER have the pilots to keep functioning. Well, we proved em wrong. You announce an Envoy job fair and they come out of the woodwork like cockroaches tripping over each other to get in.

    Envoy is #1!
    Nyuk, Nyuk, Nyuk......Woo, Woo, Woo......

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    Another chapter from the mainfesto. Happy New Year by the way!

    Dude, about half of what you say in the paragraph above is so far out there it's like saying aliens landed years ago and have control of the U.S. power grid now from their base in Antarctica. Do you seriously not consider how MANY pilots AA is going to need over the next 10 years? They are number one on the list with the most retirements in that time frame. Seriously good for Envoy flows. AA is going to need pilots and in big numbers. I would not be the least bit surprised if they came back to Envoy and wanted to re negotiate the flow part of the contract INCREASING the number of pilots coming from the Voy. Like I said, the numbers they are going to need are staggering and Envoy is a major source of these pilots. I would not be shocked to see a 3 year flow out in the future.

    As has been mentioned many, many times before. AA has a large amount of debt but it's good debt. You can't grow and add 78's, buses and 73's without using some leverage. That is exactly what has happened.

    Now, go cry over your spilled milk somewhere else.
    Do you seriously not consider how MANY pilots AA is going to need over the next 10 years?

    This is where you are completely wrong...but I will let 2021 and thereafter do the talking.....
    Tic-Toc,Tic-Toc....
    I always tell the truth. Even when I lie.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NoOtPilot View Post
    “Do you seriously not consider how MANY pilots AA is going to need over the next 10 years?”

    This is where you are completely wrong...but I will let 2021 and thereafter do the talking.....
    Tic-Toc,Tic-Toc....
    OK. You have done it. I am going to spill the beans now since you keep preaching 2021. Yes, there is a specific plan out there and it’s for 2021. Actually a little before that. Basically I can say, the flow you see now. Think what you see now on steroids. How about that? Tic Toc. Yes, I will accept thanks here.
    Last edited by Dacuj; 01-05-2019 at 10:42 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    Nyuk, Nyuk, Nyuk......Woo, Woo, Woo......
    “Hey nurse! I need my Depends changed!”

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    OK. You have done it. I am going to spill the beans now since you keep preaching 2021. Yes, there is a specific plan out there and it’s for 2021. Actually a little before that. Basically I can say, the flow you see now. Think what you see now on steroids. How about that? Tic Toc. Yes, I will accept thanks here.
    LOL !

    Curly attacks others (his forte) for putting out "mystery" claims that have no specifics and then does what ?

    Why, put out a mystery claim with no specifics himself. Zero credibility. Z-E-R-O.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    “Hey nurse! I need my Depends changed!”
    ^^^^ Translation for us humans, especially non-alcoholics : Nyuk…, Nyuk…, Nyuk...Woo..., Woo..., Woo...

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    While I find some humor in your posts that repeatedly attempt to belittle me, I am sobered when I realize the true motive behind your presence on this sorry board is sheer desperation.

    I on the other hand, am well known throughout AAG and respected in all circles. It wasn't that long ago that I attended an event for the cadets. One mentioned to me that he knew my code name on TA and he profusely thanked me for carrying the mantle and keeping the truth out in front first and foremost.

    Recently, I've been extended an offer of another SA after I complete my 1st year. I am really stoked as I feel I can seriously contribute to the long term success of this already wildly successful company.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    While I find some humor in your posts that repeatedly attempt to belittle me, I am sobered when I realize the true motive behind your presence on this sorry board is sheer desperation.

    I on the other hand, am well known throughout AAG and respected in all circles. It wasn't that long ago that I attended an event for the cadets. One mentioned to me that he knew my code name on TA and he profusely thanked me for carrying the mantle and keeping the truth out in front first and foremost.

    Recently, I've been extended an offer of another SA after I complete my 1st year. I am really stoked as I feel I can seriously contribute to the long term success of this already wildly successful company.
    Yes, we’ve already been exposed to your delusions of grandeur, i.e., a military war hero for surviving simulated battle with blanks and a legend among all. Your previous claim about “SA” involved completing consolidation (first 100 hours within 90 days) and now it’s “completing your first year”. Sounds like you’re going backwards to me. Your stories change so frequently no one knows what to believe and thus I think most believe none of it. As for “belittling” others, that’s one of your few strengths, but I think it’s good you can’t find something.......anything, that leads to sobriety. The first step is always the hardest.

    As for your other numerous issues, I hold out little hope for recovery and/or correction.

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