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Thread: And guess what’s happening...

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    Registered User NoOtPilot's Avatar
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    And guess what’s happening...


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    American Airlines' pre-tax profit is set to plunge for a third consecutive year in 2018. A recent surge in oil prices will make matters worse in the fourth quarter and in 2019 -- particularly if fuel costs continue to move higher.

    Fuel costs rising again...
    The price of Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, has surged nearly 50% over the past year, recently surpassing $80 per barrel. The last time it approached that level, back in May, I warned that higher oil prices could spell disaster for American Airlines' profitability.

    Yet several recent reports have suggested that oil prices could rise as high as $90 per barrel or even $100 per barrel next year.
    “I always tell the truth. Even when I lie.”

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    But I hope it keeps going up. This pilot “shortage” was beginning to really put a crimp in the companies finances.

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    With the gas prices climbing, hopefully they will park these gas guzzlers 50 seaters POS and we get faster flow.

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    Higher fuel prices WILL NOT lead to a faster flow unless you’re talking about the flow of cash bleeding from AAG’s already rapidly dwindling stash.

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    Your all haters. Haha

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    Quote Originally Posted by NoOtPilot View Post
    American Airlines' pre-tax profit is set to plunge for a third consecutive year in 2018. A recent surge in oil prices will make matters worse in the fourth quarter and in 2019 -- particularly if fuel costs continue to move higher.

    Fuel costs rising again...
    The price of Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, has surged nearly 50% over the past year, recently surpassing $80 per barrel. The last time it approached that level, back in May, I warned that higher oil prices could spell disaster for American Airlines' profitability.

    Yet several recent reports have suggested that oil prices could rise as high as $90 per barrel or even $100 per barrel next year.
    Tough to see how this could happen. Parker confidently announced to the world the industry and especially AA would be hugely profitable for the foreseeable future. IIRC, AA in particular would see upwards of 5 Billion annual profit in good years and 4 Billion in leaner years. That’s already been ratcheted significantly downward in the last year and that’s before $85-105/barrel of LSC. Throw in a hamstrung revenue source with an increasingly crippled regional system and real trouble is close. Then, a major global, domestic or industry issue and *BANG*, game over.

    That WILL affect the flow and not in a good way.

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    Skyrocketing fuel futures is to Iceberg
    As AAG’s ginormous debt is to Titanic

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    What’s causing the upswing this time. Just my luck. I just got an suv

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sirsnacksalot View Post
    Skyrocketing fuel futures is to Iceberg
    As AAG’s ginormous debt is to Titanic
    You know what they say, people in glass houses sink ships. And don't cross the road, unless you can get out of the kitchen.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Robsquatch View Post
    What’s causing the upswing this time. Just my luck. I just got an suv
    Did you trade in one of your hippie cars to offset the carbon savings of the other hippie car?

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    Whoop, Whoop........PULL UP........Whoop, Whoop........PULL UP

    Fuel costs are WAY down and yet AAG is giving warning it is reducing its revenue forecast again. Have they gotten the first look at 4Q18 earnings ? I previously had more concern about the 4th quarter then the 3rd for 2018 and it looks like AAG might be entering the beginning of a financial microburst as predicted. Problem is, they don’t have the thrust Delta, United and others do, nor the savvy piloting skills to begin the go-around prior to reaching it or declining the approach altogether.

    Hang on and grab onto those armrests fellas, that vibration and wing rocking you barely can see outside your downpour washed cabin windows is not a good thing. I think the good ship AA has gotten itself WAY below the glideslope in this weather and the thrust levers are at max and the speed minimum and almost at stick shaker. Will AAG make it with Captain Parker and F/O Isom at the controls ? We will see, but in the interim, I suggest everyone cinch those belts tighter and assume the brace position. I expect some panicky moves from the AAG cockpit along with some B.S. PA’s to the cabin to try and keep fear levels down.
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 01-10-2019 at 11:38 AM.

  12. #12
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    I shorted AAG and it’s looking to have been a great choice.
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