New Information

[DolphinsFan]

New 175s announced. This isn't even counting the forecasted 20 Compass birds.

American has just announced that it is exercising its options for 15 additional Embraer 175 (E175) aircraft, to be operated by Envoy. These new aircraft are expected to begin arriving at a rate of three per month, starting in early 2020.

This is in addition to the 25 E175s currently on order that begin arriving later this month and continue through 2019. By mid-2020, Envoy’s E175 fleet will have nearly doubled from where we are today:


We will have 84 175s when all this shakes out and again, that's prior to any Compass birds arriving.
In addition, Envoy is expected to flow just under 700 total over the next two years alone.

[Beagleboy]

New 175s announced. This isn't even counting the forecasted 20 Compass birds.

American has just announced that it is exercising its options for 15 additional Embraer 175 (E175) aircraft, to be operated by Envoy. These new aircraft are expected to begin arriving at a rate of three per month, starting in early 2020.

This is in addition to the 25 E175s currently on order that begin arriving later this month and continue through 2019. By mid-2020, Envoy’s E175 fleet will have nearly doubled from where we are today:


We will have 84 175s when all this shakes out and again, that's prior to any Compass birds arriving.
In addition, Envoy is expected to flow just under 700 total over the next two years alone.

But almost a year and a half away, although good news mostly for 75 college kids out there. If you plan to flow, in the long run it’s just a stepping-stone plane and in fact then becomes BAD news as these just replace AA flying. As for the flow info, that’s the 29/month requirement and simply a forecast based on that and projected AA hiring. Of course, we all know (or should) that after the PP pilots are gone, the minimum plunges to 15/month, yes ? There’s a reason the flow was negotiated that way and yes, it’s contractual.

But you know what ? Considering the flow is scheduled to slow, maybe it IS good news for more Envoy pilots. If you have serve a longer sentence at Envoy, might as well do it in a 175 (if you can). Of course half won’t unless/until the those clapped out 140/145’s are also replaced and that will take decade at this acquisition rate.

Anyhoo, this is all nice and fine, but the true news is a question and that is what is AAG going to do about their profitability, debt and competitive product issues ? For future flow to be more meaningful, the foundation it depends on has to be fixed.

[copycopy]

It drops to 15/mo for the pilots hired between 10/11/11 and 12/24/14, which is about 150 pilots. After that the formula kicks in and it should be more like 20-22 depending on AA class size (based on our current number of pilots). Really they should accelerate that group of 150 pilots for marketing purposes - making those pilots flow at the same rate as the PP group would cut another 5-6 months off of their new hire flow projections, and the flow time of anybody hired after 12/24/14. Whether or not they realize the value in that and will do it.... that’s another story all together.

[NoOtPilot]

What about Scope?

[Cujo665]

I seem to remember the union hull counts showing they couldn't exercise all those options due to scope considerations. Has something changed?

[DolphinsFan]

Of course, a typical BS response. You fail to notice that we are going to 84 175s total and have still been increasing the 145 fleet. Envoy is continuing to grow as AA realizes the benefits of Envoy flying these 175s and having 3000 or more pilots. Like I've said before, this isn't your grandaddy's Eagle run by AMR. This is Envoy and run by AAG who has made many prudent decisions on Envoy and the flow over the last few years. By the way, where is your substance? Constantly b**ching about AA being behind the power curve and on the verge of failing, where is your actual evidence aside from your wild a** speculation?

[Beagleboy]

It drops to 15/mo for the pilots hired between 10/11/11 and 12/24/14, which is about 150 pilots. After that the formula kicks in and it should be more like 20-22 depending on AA class size (based on our current number of pilots). Really they should accelerate that group of 150 pilots for marketing purposes - making those pilots flow at the same rate as the PP group would cut another 5-6 months off of their new hire flow projections, and the flow time of anybody hired after 12/24/14. Whether or not they realize the value in that and will do it.... that’s another story all together.

Historically, Envoy (and its predecessor Eagle) has been very consistent in running the flow at minimum possible rate. Considering both theirs and AA’s future challenges, it would be prudent to expect no change. In other words, even under the best of circumstances, no greater then minimum rate. Under less then the best of circumstances (or worse), all bets are off.

[Beagleboy]

I seem to remember the union hull counts showing they couldn't exercise all those options due to scope considerations. Has something changed?

They won’t violate scope. I assume that is one reason this small order is a year and a half off. Likely need time for regional fleet adjustments elsewhere.

[DolphinsFan]

They won’t violate scope. I assume that is one reason this small order is a year and a half off. Likely need time for regional fleet adjustments elsewhere.

The first thing you ever got right on here.

[Cujo665]

Historically, Envoy (and its predecessor Eagle) has been very consistent in running the flow at minimum possible rate. Consider both theirs and AA’s future challenges, it would be prudent to expect no change. In other words, even under the best of circumstances, no greater then minimum rate. Under less then the best of circumstances (or worse), all bets are off.

This is exactly why they gave an increase to 29 a month to make the grievance go away. They knew AA was to begin hiring in larger numbers, and 50% would wipe Envoy out.

[Cujo665]

They won’t violate scope. I assume that is one reason this small order is a year and a half off. Likely need time for regional fleet adjustments elsewhere.

That makes sense. So smebody is losing their AA feed contracts on large RJ's. We know Compass, but these aren't part of that lot. Handwriting on the wall for the outsourced vendors.

[Beagleboy]

Of course, a typical BS response. You fail to notice that we are going to 84 175s total and have still been increasing the 145 fleet. Envoy is continuing to grow as AA realizes the benefits of Envoy flying these 175s and having 3000 or more pilots. Like I've said before, this isn't your grandaddy's Eagle run by AMR. This is Envoy and run by AAG who has made many prudent decisions on Envoy and the flow over the last few years. By the way, where is your substance? Constantly b**ching about AA being behind the power curve and on the verge of failing, where is your actual evidence aside from your wild a** speculation?

I’ve posted my “evidence” repeatedly, it’s just you refuse to acknowledge it. Falling profits when others are rising, staggering debt, strategic moves demonstrating a penchant for fleeing direct competition unless on home turf, limited assets, alienated employees, marginal product not improving, etc. Need I go on ?

You’re still trying to get pilots to look waaaaaaaaay out in the distance, but the real story is here and now. That story isn’t so rosy, my friend and it appears that story is being ignored and future chapters of both AA and Envoy are driven by the present chapters plot.

[Cujo665]

I’ve posted my “evidence” repeatedly, it’s just you refuse to acknowledge it. Falling profits when others are rising, staggering debt, strategic moves demonstrating a penchant for fleeing direct competition unless on home turf, limited assets, alienated employees, marginal product not improving, etc. Need I go on ?

You’re still trying to get pilots to look waaaaaaaaay out in the distance, but the real story is here and now. That story isn’t so rosy, my friend and it appears that story is being ignored and future chapters of both AA and Envoy are driven by the present chapters plot.

Your evaluation of the financial stability has been echoed by many on Wall St and is a direct indication of why the stock has tanked.

[Beagleboy]

The first thing you ever got right on here.

If that’s the case, I’m ahead of you. You have yet to meet that metric. :-)

[Koojo]

New 175s announced. This isn't even counting the forecasted 20 Compass birds.

American has just announced that it is exercising its options for 15 additional Embraer 175 (E175) aircraft, to be operated by Envoy. These new aircraft are expected to begin arriving at a rate of three per month, starting in early 2020.

This is in addition to the 25 E175s currently on order that begin arriving later this month and continue through 2019. By mid-2020, Envoy’s E175 fleet will have nearly doubled from where we are today:


We will have 84 175s when all this shakes out and again, that's prior to any Compass birds arriving.
In addition, Envoy is expected to flow just under 700 total over the next two years alone.

H*ll yeah! (Fist pump)

[Beagleboy]

Your evaluation of the financial stability has been echoed by many on Wall St and is a direct indication of why the stock has tanked.

.....and I wish it weren’t so for everyone’s sake.

[NoOtPilot]

While mainline shrinks, Envoy keeps growing. 🤔
This is an advertising stunt by Pedro, trying to prevent pilots from leaving.

“Houston we have a problem.”

[Beagleboy]

While mainline shrinks, Envoy keeps growing. ��

Parker’s plan. Bad for those who flow. Some might get a quick high at Envoy if they fly the “crown jewel” (although it might be a bad trip considering lousy QWL). But, nothing’s free and they pay for that quick high with a 20-40 year hangover at AA considering this is where AA flying is going to and how much more he wants to send here. But, I think it’s important to remember, these jets are 18 months off and that’s HUGE considering AA’s issues. The world of AA and a Envoy could be completely different by then considering the present. If AA flops (in part due to this plan failing due to future lack of pilots), the industry tanks (AA then is certain to roll over) or Parker gets scope changes (one way or the other), not only do AA pilots take it in the chops (again, especially those junior), but Envoy pilots too by watching their flow projection completely change for the worse. I know I sound like a broken record with this suggestion, but again......

CAVEAT EMPTOR.

[Beagleboy]

That makes sense. So smebody is losing their AA feed contracts on large RJ's. We know Compass, but these aren't part of that lot. Handwriting on the wall for the outsourced vendors.

They hope to get some of their pilots too (and will indeed probably get some). I’ve said for years that Envoy will eventually transition to an all E-175 fleet and they are slowly doing that, so no big surprise there. They have also confirmed shifting more flying to Envoy, so that’s not new news either. All good plans, but also dependent on perpetual blue skies, tailwinds and lucky timing.

Obviously, I’m not convinced it will pan out that way.

[Pancakes]

Ideally, Envoy and all regionals would disappear...maybe one day.