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Thread: Mesa Air Group IPO

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Meatloaf View Post
    I'd rather be furloughed from AA or stuck on group I pay (While moving up in pay longevity), than stuck at this place.
    I don’t think AA will likely furlough in the future except under the most dire circumstances. As for clicking off your first half decade after flow on the yearly AA pay rate scale in Group I, you do realize your pay would be less and scheduling no better then that of an Envoy captain. But hey, if it works for you, that’s what’s important. I realize shiny jets that might be a little bigger then your present one and the fantasy that you’ve hit the star on the airline Christmas tree are intoxicating, no matter how misguided. But that being stated, I think a better comparison is not Envoy, but non AA industry options. Obviously you believe being stuck at Envoy is among the worst scenarios, but actually, that one is more likely then being furloughed from AA after arrival IMO.

    I think it would be more apt to compare a move that might be faster at another LCC that has in many areas both a better CBA and quite possibly a faster advancement to Group II captain. Best of luck, however you decide to play it though.
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 08-16-2018 at 08:50 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    I donít think AA will likely furlough in the future except under the most dire circumstances.
    Agreed


    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    As for clicking off your first half decade after flow on the yearly AA pay rate scale in Group I, you do realize your pay would be less and scheduling no better then that of an Envoy captain.
    Walk me through that. Year 11 at Envoy is 91/hr. Flow is at 11 years for guys hired 11 years ago. Group 1 Ca is currently going to guys just off probation. So they are making 166/hr after 5 years (you said half decade). Group 1 Fo is making 106/hr after 5 years. Both seats earn 16% 401k. Envoy earns zero 401k unless you contribute. You're out of touch.

    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    But hey, if it works for you, thatís whatís important. I realize shiny jets that might be a little bigger then your present one and the fantasy that youíve hit the star on the airline Christmas tree are intoxicating, no matter how misguided. But that being stated, I think a better comparison is not Envoy, but non AA industry options. Obviously you believe being stuck at Envoy is among the worst scenarios, but actually, that one is more likely then being furloughed from AA after arrival IMO.

    I think it would be more apt to compare a move that might be faster at another LCC that has in many areas both a better CBA and quite possibly a faster advancement to Group II captain. Best of luck, however you decide to play it though.
    Has zero to do with shiny jets and everything to do with improving the situation. Everyone has their own career path. Some will go to a LCC others will flow. Get over yourself.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Meatloaf View Post
    Agreed
    Considering AA's situation and the fleet replacement scenario I describe, cessation of hiring and contraction off the top of the seniority list is more likely than furlough off the bottom, but this was already baked into my assertions. But also remember, ANY carriers pilots in the bottom 15% or so are always the staffing relief valve when necessary and AA is not immune no matter what you think. It always happens suddenly too.


    Quote Originally Posted by Meatloaf View Post
    Walk me through that. Year 11 at Envoy is 91/hr. Flow is at 11 years for guys hired 11 years ago. Group 1 Ca is currently going to guys just off probation. So they are making 166/hr after 5 years (you said half decade). Group 1 Fo is making 106/hr after 5 years. Both seats earn 16% 401k. Envoy earns zero 401k unless you contribute. You're out of touch.
    Out of touch ?

    Maybe, maybe not. The walk I took used a Group I blended F/O rate ($91-$109/hr.) and no profit sharing adding up to about $500K during the first 5 years. Most Envoy captains can make $100K/year easily (heck some Envoy new-hires are doing that, yes ?). Many can make substantially more playing the contract there and that can meet or exceed AA's 401(k). I'll split the difference with you on that and say SOME may make more and others not. However, you muddying up the water in your favor by throwing any AA captain considerations is adding too much sugar in this situation considering the scenario of an AA fleet adjustment transferring many Group II pilots to Group I. In fact, considering AA's present risks and financial balance sheet, the trade off for all this is a sacrifice in job security as again, furlough is not out of the question at AA, just not as likely. Furlough is less likely at Envoy then AA unless they simply fold up shop. So, a trade off IS there.

    Quote Originally Posted by Meatloaf View Post
    Has zero to do with shiny jets and everything to do with improving the situation. Everyone has their own career path. Some will go to a LCC others will flow.
    You're saying the bottom of the AA list with the potential to make a little more money is an improvement over Envoy under this scenario ? OK, but again, there IS a trade off in sacrifice of job security unless you (as many) are convinced nothing negative can happen in the future. I think there are risks that could end up making it worse, but time will tell. You're obviously committed to your chosen path and again, good luck, I hope it works out for you. Agreed every Envoy pilot has different goals and some will consider a different LCC then AA as an interim move or even a career destination should their non-AA dream job not materialize (or until it does) and I argue that most definitely may be more lucrative both financially and in QWL then AA, especially with the likelihood AA pilots won't see any meaningful gains going forward considering AA's balance sheet, bit I already stated that above.



    Quote Originally Posted by Meatloaf View Post
    Get over yourself.
    Not sure where you got the idea this has anything to do with me. I'll just assume this was a handy rock to throw, but that's OK as it will be you that wins or loses at the ultra-junior AA pilot craps table in the future, not me. Again, I hope you throw boxcars instead of snake-eyes. My only advice is don't live beyond your means and stay flexible.

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    So you would rather be without a job for a few years

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post

    Out of touch ?

    Maybe, maybe not. The walk I took used a Group I blended F/O rate ($91-$109/hr.) and no profit sharing adding up to about $500K during the first 5 years. Most Envoy captains can make $100K/year easily (heck some Envoy new-hires are doing that, yes ?). Many can make substantially more playing the contract there and that can meet or exceed AA's 401(k). I'll split the difference with you on that and say SOME may make more and others not. However, you muddying up the water in your favor by throwing any AA captain considerations is adding too much sugar in this situation considering the scenario of an AA fleet adjustment transferring many Group II pilots to Group I. In fact, considering AA's present risks and financial balance sheet, the trade off for all this is a sacrifice in job security as again, furlough is not out of the question at AA, just not as likely. Furlough is less likely at Envoy then AA unless they simply fold up shop. So, a trade off IS there.
    Your numbers are off. A second year AA FO isn't on group 1 pay, unless they do it by choice. Now if you're forecasting this, then flipper can forecast a 6 year flow. Either we use current data and facts or fantasy facts. But play what ever game you choose. Either way, I'd rather be stuck on group 1 FO pay then stuck at this joint.


    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    You're saying the bottom of the AA list with the potential to make a little more money is an improvement over Envoy under this scenario ? OK, but again, there IS a trade off in sacrifice of job security unless you (as many) are convinced nothing negative can happen in the future. I think there are risks that could end up making it worse, but time will tell. You're obviously committed to your chosen path and again, good luck, I hope it works out for you. Agreed every Envoy pilot has different goals and some will consider a different LCC then AA as an interim move or even a career destination should their non-AA dream job not materialize (or until it does) and I argue that most definitely may be more lucrative both financially and in QWL then AA, especially with the likelihood AA pilots won't see any meaningful gains going forward considering AA's balance sheet, bit I already stated that above.
    That's correct. Most FO's and a lot of Envoy captains are willing to trade that security you speak for the rewards of moving on. That's why the flow is working working. Yes it's metered to the minimum. Trickle through and anything else you want to call it. We get it. We heard you. Beat the horse.




    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    Not sure where you got the idea this has anything to do with me. I'll just assume this was a handy rock to throw, but that's OK as it will be you that wins or loses at the ultra-junior AA pilot craps table in the future, not me. Again, I hope you throw boxcars instead of snake-eyes. My only advice is don't live beyond your means and stay flexible.
    Because you are on here day in and day out. It's a little weird and gets exhausting. but have at it. The kids aren't listening to you. They still show up to work and wait their time to flow or get hired elsewhere. You're not making the impact you think you are.
    Last edited by Meatloaf; 08-17-2018 at 07:13 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ardvark View Post
    So you would rather be without a job for a few years
    Yes! Absolutely. I'd rather be furloughed at AA than stuck at this joint. Wouldn't you? From your posts you hate it here. Yet, now you're going to defend it? It sucks here and I'm glad I'm not stuck here like you. You really should look to move on to somewhere else.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    Considering AA's situation and the fleet replacement scenario I describe, cessation of hiring and contraction off the top of the seniority list is more likely than furlough off the bottom, but this was already baked into my assertions. But also remember, ANY carriers pilots in the bottom 15% or so are always the staffing relief valve when necessary and AA is not immune no matter what you think. It always happens suddenly too.



    Out of touch ?

    Maybe, maybe not. The walk I took used a Group I blended F/O rate ($91-$109/hr.) and no profit sharing adding up to about $500K during the first 5 years. Most Envoy captains can make $100K/year easily (heck some Envoy new-hires are doing that, yes ?). Many can make substantially more playing the contract there and that can meet or exceed AA's 401(k). I'll split the difference with you on that and say SOME may make more and others not. However, you muddying up the water in your favor by throwing any AA captain considerations is adding too much sugar in this situation considering the scenario of an AA fleet adjustment transferring many Group II pilots to Group I. In fact, considering AA's present risks and financial balance sheet, the trade off for all this is a sacrifice in job security as again, furlough is not out of the question at AA, just not as likely. Furlough is less likely at Envoy then AA unless they simply fold up shop. So, a trade off IS there.



    You're saying the bottom of the AA list with the potential to make a little more money is an improvement over Envoy under this scenario ? OK, but again, there IS a trade off in sacrifice of job security unless you (as many) are convinced nothing negative can happen in the future. I think there are risks that could end up making it worse, but time will tell. You're obviously committed to your chosen path and again, good luck, I hope it works out for you. Agreed every Envoy pilot has different goals and some will consider a different LCC then AA as an interim move or even a career destination should their non-AA dream job not materialize (or until it does) and I argue that most definitely may be more lucrative both financially and in QWL then AA, especially with the likelihood AA pilots won't see any meaningful gains going forward considering AA's balance sheet, bit I already stated that above.





    Not sure where you got the idea this has anything to do with me. I'll just assume this was a handy rock to throw, but that's OK as it will be you that wins or loses at the ultra-junior AA pilot craps table in the future, not me. Again, I hope you throw boxcars instead of snake-eyes. My only advice is don't live beyond your means and stay flexible.


    Unbelievable. Your life's work is convincing everyone how the flow is going to stop and how you are just looking out for Envoy pilots. Yeah, kind of like the fox looks after those hens in the henhouse.

    Now, you are saying that the flow is going to work and meatloaf should stay at Envoy because he might be stuck on Group 1 pay or worse, be furloughed.

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Meatloaf View Post
    Your numbers are off. A second year AA FO isn't on group 1 pay, unless they do it by choice. Now if you're forecasting this, then flipper can forecast a 6 year flow. Either we use current data and facts or fantasy facts. But play what ever game you choose. Either way, I'd rather be stuck on group 1 FO pay then stuck at this joint.
    My Group I numbers aren't way off. You obviously haven't been comprehending my initial consideration (see post #19). Actually, this latest post reveals you never intended to comprehend my points. I'm not "forecasting" this scenario, but I consider it one that is at significant enough risk with AA considering its particular situation which is the whole point ,i.e., that going to AA with its present situation at this time in the cycle, one should consider and accept this result (there are some even worse). If you consider this "fantasy", then again that's fine as it will be you that deals with it. How many pilots here either Letter 3 or after were told they'd be at AA in 5 years ? What is fact and what is fantasy is only limited by which master one chooses to serve when considering the information you want to believe and how closely you want to look at any present situation. A lot of pilots were cynical about the 5 year promise and thus were not surprised when it proved false, while others believed it and flipped out when it didn't happen. You seem confident and hey, good for you. Again, hope it works for you. Personally, I'd be the opposite and extremely skeptical considering all the red flags.

    As for flipper (you ?), the difference between us is I don't represent my opinions about the future as certainties whereas the tag team (now trio) of tall tales does. I might disagree with them which is fine because again, everyone chooses what they want to see and base their opinions on that. We obviously disagree and see different things. Hey.......you could be right and I wrong. I've been wrong before and will be again. I hope this or another unfortunate scenario stunting what you may believe to be a turbulence free ride to AA 787 captain occurs, but if I had to lay ca$h on it, I'd bet against it. It's your ca$h on the table this time around though.

    Quote Originally Posted by Meatloaf View Post
    That's correct. Most FO's and a lot of Envoy captains are willing to trade that security you speak for the rewards of moving on. That's why the flow is working working. Yes it's metered to the minimum. Trickle through and anything else you want to call it. We get it. We heard you. Beat the horse.
    I have no doubt many Envoy pilots are willing to risk AA with all its flags over non AA destinations (other LCC's) aside from the 2 legacies and that's because they assume the risks are very low. Many see their situation as a Hot Hand. Hope they are right. Again, I don't think they are. I disagree about the flow working, at least in the respect of getting proper ROI for your negotiated dollar. Now if you want to say the flow is working on luring new pilots to Envoy, to a large degree that may be true (for now), but if you think its working just because it's being run at minimum rate possible and that is full value, in that case I think you've just had your expectations managed. Fact is, in that regard, you're being short-changed whether you agree or not. Besides, my #19 post wasn't to you, but you chose to ingratiate yourself in the discussion, so you've now chosen to take the stick and whack the horse too and obviously you DON'T get it. If you "got" what I was saying is a definite risk, you'd at least acknowledge it as a consideration.



    Quote Originally Posted by Meatloaf View Post
    Because you are on here day in and day out. It's a little weird and gets exhausting. but have at it. The kids aren't listening to you. They still show up to work and wait their time to flow or get hired elsewhere. You're not making the impact you think you are.
    Ahh..........now we are getting somewhere. I've been scratching my head at your motive, but it just became obvious. I now conclude based on your join date, your angle and content, you're just another incarnation of Dacuj/DolphinsFan or perhaps even one of them. I'll respond to your inaccuracies just like theirs in this dept. and that is I'm not here daily which can be easily proven. If I'm "weird" and you're exhausted, you can ignore me with a tap of the finger and I expect you to do this posthaste, because if you don't at this point, it just confirms you choose to whack the horse too. As for the "kids", they can listen to me or not, that is their choice and I cannot recall a single post stating or implying they shouldn't show up for work. My opinions have nothing to do with any expectation anyone will act based solely on what I think, I just reserve the right to call it as I see it. Your last sentence has all but convinced me I haven't been conversing with just a random line pilot and BTW, I think you guys aren't having any impact either convincing others all is well at Envoy and AA and the future is certain to be so bright you gotta wear shades.
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 08-17-2018 at 09:17 AM.

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Meatloaf View Post
    Yes! Absolutely. I'd rather be furloughed at AA than stuck at this joint. Wouldn't you? From your posts you hate it here. Yet, now you're going to defend it? It sucks here and I'm glad I'm not stuck here like you. You really should look to move on to somewhere else.
    It sucks at Envoy ? Now, I'm confused. How can that be ?

    Envoy pays well in relation to their peers and has a guaranteed flow to a strong, financially stable legacy (or so many here believe is a legacy in pilot economics and QWL). New-hires are flocking to Envoy for those very reasons are they not ? If all this is true, how can Envoy "suck" ? By your own philosophy here, you are fact and I am fantasy and if fact is how you paint it, again..............how can Envoy suck, especially when it is guaranteed to lead to AA ?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Koojo View Post
    Unbelievable. Your life's work is convincing everyone how the flow is going to stop and how you are just looking out for Envoy pilots. Yeah, kind of like the fox looks after those hens in the henhouse.

    Now, you are saying that the flow is going to work and meatloaf should stay at Envoy because he might be stuck on Group 1 pay or worse, be furloughed.
    My "life's work" is what you say ? I think you are both delusional and a bit hysterical. This is simply what you choose to see. To wit, I looked over my posts and found no where that I stated any Envoy pilot SHOULD do anything. I simply posed a consideration in post #19 that I believe is distinctly possible in the future considering AA's situation and the burgeoning pilot crisis since they rely so heavily on RJ's and thus an endless supply of regional pilots, nothing more. If you want to flip out over it, be my guest. Why not just continue in the blissful embrace of hope and assumption that most do and then should the this or the worst happen, just deal with it like the thousands before you have ?
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 08-17-2018 at 09:22 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ardvark View Post
    So you would rather be without a job for a few years
    Some could probably get their old jobs back at Envoy at $100K if they went to captain. They'd lose their seniority though. Of course under that situation, they might see AA in a different light and decide to take their money off that table and try their luck somewhere else.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    My Group I numbers aren't way off. You obviously haven't been comprehending my initial consideration (see post #19). Actually, this latest post reveals you never intended to comprehend my points. I'm not "forecasting" this scenario, but I consider it one that is at significant enough risk with AA considering its particular situation which is the whole point ,i.e., that going to AA with its present situation at this time in the cycle, one should consider and accept this result (there are some even worse). If you consider this "fantasy", then again that's fine as it will be you that deals with it. How many pilots here either Letter 3 or after were told they'd be at AA in 5 years ? What is fact and what is fantasy is only limited by which master one chooses to serve when considering the information you want to believe and how closely you want to look at any present situation. A lot of pilots were cynical about the 5 year promise and thus were not surprised, while others believed it and flipped out when it didn't happen. You seem confident and hey, good for you. Again, hope it works for you. Personally, I'd be the opposite and extremely skeptical considering all the red flags.
    I do agree there is risk for the flow to stop or to flow and be stuck at AA G1 FO. I'd rather be stuck at AA G1 FO or furloughed from AA than stuck here like Advark. I'm too senior and late in my early career to make a different move now. UAL and DAL didn't call Oh well, I'll take the CLT base and drive to work. Even if AA is terrible, my friends that have flowed say it's much better than Eaglvoy. And some of those were senior 20 year guys here, and left for greener pastures. So if AA sucks so be it, but at least it sucks less. Expectations have been managed a long time ago. Life goes on.

    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    As for flipper (you ?),
    That's a reoccurring theme for you. If you don't agree with someone or they call you out, in your mind, they either have to be flipper or work for management. That's a narrow thought path, but have at it. I believe you to be a short old eagle captain that flowed as a number holder. Are you who I think you are?

    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    the difference between us is I don't represent my opinions about the future as certainties whereas the tag team (now trio) of tall tales does. I might disagree with them which is fine because again, everyone chooses what they want to see and base their opinions on that. We obviously disagree and see different things. Hey.......you could be right and I wrong. I've been wrong before and will be again. I hope this or another unfortunate scenario stunting what you may believe to be a turbulence free ride to AA 787 captain occurs, but if I had to lay ca$h on it, I'd bet against it. It's your ca$h on the table this time around though.
    I have no fantasies that things will work out a certain way including the flow. It all could stop tomorrow. Including Envoy. But, I can't sit at Envoy because things might get rough at AA.



    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    I have no doubt many Envoy pilots are willing to risk AA with all its flags over non AA destinations (other LCC's) aside from the 2 legacies and that's because they assume the risks are very low. Hope they are right. Again, I don't think they are. I disagree about the flow working, at least in the respect of getting proper ROI for your negotiated dollar. Now if you want to say the flow is working on luring new pilots to Envoy, to a large degree that may be true (for now), but if you think its working just because it's being run at minimum rate possible and that is full value, in that case I think you've just had your expectations managed. Fact is, in that regard, you're being short-changed whether you agree or not. Besides, my #19 post wasn't to you, but you chose to ingratiate yourself in the discussion, so you've now chosen to take the stick and whack the horse too and obviously you DON'T get it. If you "got" what I was saying is a definite risk, you'd at least acknowledge it as a consideration.
    Yes I agree on the flow working. It's working for the company and its working for those who have flowed and it's working to help the movement to captain at Envoy. And for those of us left out of those three groups, it's up to use to decide for ourselves if it's worth it. It seemed to be good enough for you to take the flow. Why did you go to AA? Why didn't you go to another LCC? Big shiny jet syndrome?





    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    Ahh..........now we are getting somewhere. I've been scratching my head at your motive, but it just became obvious. I now conclude based on your join date, your angle and content, you're just another incarnation of Dacuj/DolphinsFan or perhaps even one of them. I'll respond to your inaccuracies just like theirs in this dept. and that is I'm not here daily which can be easily proven. If I'm "weird" and you're exhausted, you can ignore me with a tap of the finger and I expect you to do this posthaste, because if you don't at this point, it just confirms you choose to whack the horse too. As for the "kids", they can listen to me or not, that is their choice and I cannot recall a single post stating or implying they shouldn't show up for work. My opinions have nothing to do with any expectation anyone will act based solely on what I think, I just reserve the right to call it as I see it. Your last sentence has all but convinced me I haven't been conversing with just a random line pilot and BTW, I think you guys aren't having any impact either convincing others all is well at Envoy and AA and the future is certain to be so bright you gotta wear shades.
    I normally lurk. I'll continue to lurk and post as I see fit. I'm not trying to persuade anyone that Envoy is the place to be or it's not. That's up to them to decide. Yes Envoy sucks, but so do other regionals. They all have their pluses and minuses. I actually talk to pilots at EDV and RAH etc. They all have their bitches. Several call and ask about the flow. I lay it all out their for them. Including the downside. But you, I only see the downside from you. So be it. Have fun with that.
    Last edited by Meatloaf; 08-17-2018 at 09:30 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    Some could probably get their old jobs back at Envoy at $100K if they went to captain. They'd lose their seniority though. Of course under that situation, they might see AA in a different light and decide to take their money off that table and try their luck somewhere else.
    Second year CA is 70/hr. Walk me to that 100k...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    It sucks at Envoy ? Now, I'm confused. How can that be ?

    Envoy pays well in relation to their peers and has a guaranteed flow to a strong, financially stable legacy (or so many here believe is a legacy in pilot economics and QWL). New-hires are flocking to Envoy for those very reasons are they not ? If all this is true, how can Envoy "suck" ? By your own philosophy here, you are fact and I am fantasy and if fact is how you paint it, again..............how can Envoy suck, especially when it is guaranteed to lead to AA ?
    I never said envoy was all roses.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Meatloaf View Post
    Second year CA is 70/hr. Walk me to that 100k...
    I'm sure getting a lot of exercise in this morning.

    Isn't Envoy paying $100K to new-hire captains just using a different methodology green-lighted by ALPA ? Yes, second year is a hefty pay cut and arguably a massive pay cut if you go back to F/O, but Envoy has flow to AA, remember ? We all know that is the guaranteed path to improvement, so why not ? You imply my so-called "doomsday" scenarios are just fantasy and my purpose is to frighten gullible "kids", so why not come back to Envoy who would need you under such a situation where facts prove my opinions fantasy ?
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 08-17-2018 at 09:52 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Meatloaf View Post
    I never said envoy was all roses.
    Well, some here would disagree with you. I find it interesting you don't engage with them on this point or their claims it is. But Envoy does lead to a beautiful garden, yes ? One that is guaranteed to flourish and smell wonderful far into the future ? No chance of any thorns or undesirable infestation, so no point in considering such, right ?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    Well, some here would disagree with you. I find it interesting you don't engage with them on this point or their claims it is. But Envoy does lead to a beautiful garden, yes ? One that is guaranteed to flourish and smell wonderful far into the future ? No chance of any thorns or undesirable infestation, so no point in considering such, right ?
    I have zero interest engaging flipper. You can keep that fun to yourself.
    Last edited by Meatloaf; 08-17-2018 at 12:06 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    Some could probably get their old jobs back at Envoy at $100K if they went to captain. They'd lose their seniority though. Of course under that situation, they might see AA in a different light and decide to take their money off that table and try their luck somewhere else.
    After some thought, I'm going to correct myself on the first sentence of this;

    If AA were to furlough, it would pump many needed fully qualified pilots back into the market over a relatively short period of time and the primary option to keep flying for most would be the regionals, As a result, the remaining regionals likely wouldn't need to offer fat bonuses and thus it would likely be 1st year F/O scale based on reserve guarantee whatever that is. Many would have to commute on this as well. The other option is non-airline employment or the "Meatloaf Plan" of joblessness. Perhaps just hit the Harley for a year or three and live on the road using savings ? Considering AA's situation and lack of investor confidence as highlighted on the other thread, if the economy tanked and/or some issue put multiple bad financial quarters in play for AA, they would have to act.

    The question then is how fast would they burn through their remaining liquidity to get to the point they'd have to (or WANT to) file BK again ?

    It's an honest question and concern. A company the size of AA would probably need (or at least want) 2-3 billion in liquidity stashed when they file. That way it could be another "engineered" bankruptcy they have a better chance of controlling to pare down debt as opposed to an "Oh ****" real bankruptcy where management loses control and creditors look at fragmentation. They also would probably trim at least some aircraft and ops meaning the potential for furlough unless they are willing to contract gradually over time from the top of the seniority list through retirements. The benefit of furloughing from the bottom is it can be done quickly and the reason they have historically done that is most furloughs only last a few years at most, so "gradual" doesn't help much. AA pilots would lose their frozen A-fund to the PBGC if management convinced a judge in an 1113 motion it was needed. The PBGC would howl though. I think most of any fleet reductions would involve Group II aircraft and you KNOW one target will be scope in any such situation. Think of it as a "back door" way of getting desperately needed scope concessions, which would give AA HUGE advantage over competitors. If the replacement aircraft were larger NextGen E-jets or A220's in the Eagle system, this would be devastating for junior AA pilots. If APA succeeded in keeping them at mainline, then the "swap" scenario I described goes into play which isn't good for ultra-junior AA pilots either, but better then gutting of scope to Group I to the regional level.

    Again, something to consider. As long as a sudden gust of wind doesn't come along (especially over the next few years) to blow this house of cards down (or as described above RADICALLY change its shape), this shouldn't happen, but it's been a long time since any wind blew in this industry (well, only 6 years for AA, but who's counting) and IMO we are already overdue. Obviously analysts are advising investors to proceed with caution regarding AA and wouldn't that be a good plan for pilots too ?

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    Quote Originally Posted by DolphinsFan View Post
    Oh boy. More words of wisdom from the biggest doomsday predictor on the planet. Pilot crisis now huh? Yeah right. More wordsmithing to advance your narrative of doom. There is NO pilot crisis at Envoy. Ask me how I know. Are you even aware that there is currently a POOL for new hires?
    They got a pool and a pond.....pond would be good for you.

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