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Thread: And fuel is becoming an issue...

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    And fuel is becoming an issue...


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    Delta Air CEO says expects $2 bln in added costs on higher jet fuel expenses...

    Reuters June 27, 2018
    NEW YORK, June 27 (Reuters) - Delta Air Lines Chief Executive Officer Ed Bastian on Wednesday said the carrier is expecting $2 billion in additional costs this year as jet fuel expenses have swelled.
    I always tell the truth. Even when I lie.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NoOtPilot View Post
    Delta Air CEO says expects $2 bln in added costs on higher jet fuel expenses...

    Reuters June 27, 2018
    NEW YORK, June 27 (Reuters) - Delta Air Lines Chief Executive Officer Ed Bastian on Wednesday said the carrier is expecting $2 billion in additional costs this year as jet fuel expenses have swelled.
    AA had 6.5 Billion in fuel costs last year with cheap prices and is flying about 5% RPM's more this year then last. Plus, they have older aircraft like the S80 and a lot of 44-50 seat RJ's which burn the most fuel for the revenue generated. I'd wager AA will be more stressed then Delta. I think if Parker is hoping for higher fares to offset increased costs, he's not realistic and he can't park older S80's without parking RJ's which reduces market share and thus revenue and subsequent to that, profit. Not many good options and that's just this year. In 2019, AAG will be faced with AA pilots demanding an industry leading contract (but little chance of getting it) which will add uncertainty to AA's business model. Billions in pilot pension plan contributions MUST be deposited over the next several years as well.

    AFAIC, it's a house of cards.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    AA had 6.5 Billion in fuel costs last year with cheap prices and is flying about 5% RPM's more this year then last. Plus, they have older aircraft like the S80 and a lot of 44-50 seat RJ's which burn the most fuel for the revenue generated. I'd wager AA will be more stressed then Delta. I think if Parker is hoping for higher fares to offset increased costs, he's not realistic and he can't park older S80's without parking RJ's which reduces market share and thus revenue and subsequent to that, profit. Not many good options and that's just this year. In 2019, AAG will be faced with AA pilots demanding an industry leading contract (but little chance of getting it) which will add uncertainty to AA's business model. Billions in pilot pension plan contributions MUST be deposited over the next several years as well.

    AFAIC, it's a house of cards.
    Do you have your applications out to other airlines or even an exit strategy from aviation in it's entirety? If not, why not?
    Last edited by snippercr; 06-27-2018 at 05:39 PM.

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    Because I have flow.

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    Quote Originally Posted by snippercr View Post
    Do you have your applications out to other airlines or even an exit strategy from aviation in it's entirety? If not, why not?
    No applications to other airlines as there is no need to. Leave aviation "in its entirety" ? There is more to aviation then the airline industry (and the flow to AA) despite what you (by evidence of the phrasing of this question) believe and I'm bullish on Aviation, but not on the airline industry. I consider AA particularly vulnerable, but that's already obvious. I don't see the point of your questions though as they do nothing to disprove my assertions. But now that you've raised them, what's YOUR strategy ?

    Do you have a back-up route free of weather and an alternate or are you just motoring ahead on a wing and a prayer assuming blue skies and light winds at your hoped for destination ? If you've got more then 5 years or so, you may want to contact your dispatcher for an update, Captain.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    No applications to other airlines as there is no need to. Leave aviation "in its entirety" ? There is more to aviation then the airline industry (and the flow to AA) despite what you (by evidence of the phrasing of this question) believe and I'm bullish on Aviation, but not on the airline industry. I consider AA particularly vulnerable, but that's already obvious. I don't see the point of your questions though as they do nothing to disprove my assertions. But now that you've raised them, what's YOUR strategy ?

    Do you have a back-up route free of weather and an alternate or are you just motoring ahead on a wing and a prayer assuming blue skies and light winds at your hoped for destination ? If you've got more then 5 years or so, you may want to contact your dispatcher for an update, Captain.
    Take your dirtbag comments elsewhere. Snip is right. Flowing to the largest major airline in the world is nothing to sneeze at. But you know that already. The jealousy just seeps out of all your posts.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DolphinsFan View Post
    Take your dirtbag comments elsewhere. Snip is right. Flowing to the largest major airline in the world is nothing to sneeze at. But you know that already. The jealousy just seeps out of all your posts.
    “Dirtbag comments” ?

    He asked two questions, I answered them. I ask the same questions in return and I’m a dirtbag ?

    Clearly, you are overcome with emotion. If you have an issue with the risks and concerns I claim (backed by numerous non Envoy pilot opinions), dispute them. But when all you have to offer is the same old bankrupt replies of anger, hostility and rage, it leads one to believe it’s not me you hate, but confronting the real possibility my observations are valid. It’s easy to see anger, hostility and rage in you as that is indeed the facade of your existence here, but behind that whether you accept it or not, it’s denial and fear that drives you and deep down you pray I’m wrong, but strongly suspect I’m right.

    We both know that, but only one of us is willing to confront it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DolphinsFan View Post
    Take your dirtbag comments elsewhere. Snip is right. Flowing to the largest major airline in the world is nothing to sneeze at. But you know that already. The jealousy just seeps out of all your posts.
    “Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.” “The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge.”

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    “Dirtbag comments” ?

    He asked two questions, I answered them. I ask the same questions in return and I’m a dirtbag ?

    Clearly, you are overcome with emotion. If you have an issue with the risks and concerns I claim (backed by numerous non Envoy pilot opinions), dispute them. But when all you have to offer is the same old bankrupt replies of anger, hostility and rage, it leads one to believe it’s not me you hate, but confronting the real possibility my observations are valid. It’s easy to see anger, hostility and rage in you as that is indeed the facade of your existence here, but behind that whether you accept it or not, it’s denial and fear that drives you and deep down you pray I’m wrong, but strongly suspect I’m right.

    We both know that, but only one of us is willing to confront it.
    Dirtbag comments from......a dirtbag. How is that so hard to understand? Probably very difficult as you seethe with hatred for Envoy from dawn till dark.

    You were just trying to bait snip when he called you out. Why not just admit you are a liar? Let it rip potato chip.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NoOtPilot View Post
    “Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.” “The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge.”
    WTF are you talking about anyway? You some kind of riddler who can't use coherant language?

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    Fish, you're so sensitive.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DolphinsFan View Post
    Dirtbag comments from......a dirtbag. How is that so hard to understand? Probably very difficult as you seethe with hatred for Envoy from dawn till dark.

    You were just trying to bait snip when he called you out. Why not just admit you are a liar? Let it rip potato chip.
    Womp, Womp.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ardvark View Post
    Fish, you're so sensitive.
    Yes, he's flopping around the dock again pretty badly. Off his meds ?

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    Quote Originally Posted by DolphinsFan View Post
    WTF are you talking about anyway? You some kind of riddler who can't use coherant language?
    Let me try to explain in a very “IGNORANT” way, so you can understand...

    American Airlines decided to cancel its Chicago-Beijing route, which has been losing tens of millions of dollars every year. American Airlines is also reducing or eliminating service on several routes to Brazil.

    American Airlines is ready to make additional route adjustments if needed, such as dropping its other loss-making routes from Chicago to Asia. These moves may help American Airlines slow its profit declines.

    The domestic fare environment could be challenging for the foreseeable future, due to United Continental's aggressive growth plan.

    American Airlines may face stiff competition on domestic routes in the coming years.
    In the long run, JetBlue Airways' steady growth represents an even bigger threat.

    Unlike other competitors that American Airlines has faced in the past, JetBlue threatens to steal some of American's most valuable customers by underpricing it on premium seats -- and potentially offering better service.

    JetBlue's combination of price and service allowed it to become a force in the New York-Los Angeles and New York-San Francisco markets.
    It's upgraded 10 more transcontinental routes to its Mint premium service since then, with great success.

    Flights to Europe could be the carrier's next target. JetBlue is currently evaluating adding a long-range version of the Airbus A321 to its fleet, which would enable flights from the Northeast to much of Western Europe. A natural first step would be flying from its New York and Boston focus cities to London.

    These routes are particularly lucrative for the two carriers.
    With the A321LR, JetBlue could also fly from its Fort Lauderdale focus city further into South America, disrupting American's monopoly on several routes to South America from Miami. Thus, American Airlines could be uniquely vulnerable to JetBlue's future growth.

    Oil prices could continue to rise. Furthermore, increasing competition -- especially for premium passengers -- could erode American's unit revenue growth. To make matters worse, American Airlines has a huge debt load, making it vulnerable to an industry downturn.
    By contrast, JetBlue has a pristine balance sheet, with almost as much cash as debt on the books.

    ~ June 28, 2018 ~
    Last edited by NoOtPilot; 06-28-2018 at 11:45 PM.

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    But JetBlue doesn’t have the flow.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NoOtPilot View Post
    Let me try to explain in a very “IGNORANT” way, so you can understand...

    American Airlines decided to cancel its Chicago-Beijing route, which has been losing tens of millions of dollars every year. American Airlines is also reducing or eliminating service on several routes to Brazil.

    American Airlines is ready to make additional route adjustments if needed, such as dropping its other loss-making routes from Chicago to Asia. These moves may help American Airlines slow its profit declines.

    The domestic fare environment could be challenging for the foreseeable future, due to United Continental's aggressive growth plan.

    American Airlines may face stiff competition on domestic routes in the coming years.
    In the long run, JetBlue Airways' steady growth represents an even bigger threat.

    Unlike other competitors that American Airlines has faced in the past, JetBlue threatens to steal some of American's most valuable customers by underpricing it on premium seats -- and potentially offering better service.

    JetBlue's combination of price and service allowed it to become a force in the New York-Los Angeles and New York-San Francisco markets.
    It's upgraded 10 more transcontinental routes to its Mint premium service since then, with great success.

    Flights to Europe could be the carrier's next target. JetBlue is currently evaluating adding a long-range version of the Airbus A321 to its fleet, which would enable flights from the Northeast to much of Western Europe. A natural first step would be flying from its New York and Boston focus cities to London.

    These routes are particularly lucrative for the two carriers.
    With the A321LR, JetBlue could also fly from its Fort Lauderdale focus city further into South America, disrupting American's monopoly on several routes to South America from Miami. Thus, American Airlines could be uniquely vulnerable to JetBlue's future growth.

    Oil prices could continue to rise. Furthermore, increasing competition -- especially for premium passengers -- could erode American's unit revenue growth. To make matters worse, American Airlines has a huge debt load, making it vulnerable to an industry downturn.
    By contrast, JetBlue has a pristine balance sheet, with almost as much cash as debt on the books.

    ~ June 28, 2018 ~
    This potato chip considers this excellent information and more effort then he would have made responding directly to an enraged and very, very twisted pretzel, but will add some thoughts;

    Regarding revenue, AA has little ability to increase that like their competition who have varying options on growth (some with actual plans), but AA has none with the exception of flying what they have more. This is already happening at AA now as pilots are flying earlier, later, and more hours, but it will be difficult for AA to train enough pilots to surpass the rate of attrition so they are essentially hamstrung in future growth as their pilots are already maxed out now. Can’t add much to the fleet (except the recent handful of clapped out Airbuses) and now they are planning on holding on to older aircraft longer just to try and maintain capacity and RJ counts due to scope issues including older 737’s, S80’s and E-190’s. Can’t expand the RJ network due to scope and lack of pilots. Considering all this, it’s reasonable to expect a continuation of significant negative pressure on incoming revenue in the future.

    It is extremely unlikely AA will be able to count on fare hikes to offset sharply rising fuel costs, so that increases costs and substantially. If Delta is going to shell out an EXTRA 2 billion this year alone, AA will shell out more. Pilot labor costs (labor is the largest cost to airlines) are theoretically slated to increase with a new contract, but in all likelihood that will not occur for the foreseeable future as analysts and the market would react negatively to that further depressing AA’s already falling share price. January 1, pilot costs WILL increase noticeably as Average Calander Day is implemented, so another chip against the balance sheet there. Even with that still more billions are headed to the frozen pilot pension plan over the next few years which although are supposedly accounted for in annual profits, those profits will continue to decrease putting further downward pressure on AA’s balance sheet. First erosion on the revenue side and here increases on the cost side, even without a new pilots contract.

    Both ends on the AAG candle (revenue increasingly negative, costs increasingly more expensive) will be burning faster 24/7 in the next few years for AAG and that’s not good for weathering a downturn, especially considering present debt levels already. Regarding AAG debt, yes it’s low interest debt, but debt is debt and no debt can ever be considered good. It used to be a mortgage on a house was considered good debt, but the crash of 2008 changed that as homes are not really considered the appreciating asset they used to be. AA product ? Well, that speaks for itself. It’s obvious that AAG is more interested in changing the old American Airlines model of a competitive legacy with a premium product to more of a LCC model whose upgrades mimic the other LCC’s. This has been widely recognized and commented on from various industry media sources, so really no shock there. It does limit exposure to the premium customer paying higher prices and getting something for it. Delta IS and WILL BE the U.S. domestic leader in product in the future, but only because they are building that product with their resources and people. United will be second, but those are the only 2 legacies left anyway.

    These are all just some of the more obvious issues facing AA in the future and clearly it looks as compared to their competition be it the 2 legacies or the other LCC’s of which they are now identifying themselves with, AA has some serious challenges ahead. This is WITHOUT a significant downturn in the economy or industry at least from a profit perspective. You can deny this, but you cannot change it. Again, IMO Envoy pilots should know and accept the risks of waiting another half decade or more to then finally latch on to the bottom of (at least at present) 15,000 pilot LCC seniority list. This is important as one option AA will have in the future is more outsourcing, a smaller mainline operation (and thus RJ operation) and a smaller pilot seniority list. But, even with that, it’s been proven repeatedly that no airline has ever shrunk to profitability and that includes increased profitability.

    Caveat Emptor.
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 06-29-2018 at 08:39 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sirsnacksalot View Post
    But JetBlue doesn’t have the flow.
    Yet they still knocked AA out of NYC, Boston and San Juan (actually AA surrendered in all three markets and this is recent in some cases). JetBlue, Spirit, Frontier and even Southwest and Allegiant all have growth (and merger) potential. AA has little to none. The bet is AA retirements will be the vehicle that propels a flow pilot rapidly up the ranks, but at least IMO, that vehicle is unreliable considering AA’s situation. If AA were in Delta’s shape with that retirement, then it would be a totally different story, but AA isn’t and never will be Delta.

    This is going to sting a bit, but I think the bottom 25-35% of the AA pilot list at any given point in time are the industries future journeymen or “floaters”. That being bubble pilots who will at some point become available in large numbers over a short period of time to fill needed seats at other carriers including the 2 legacies, the other LCC’s and even for the less marketable, the regionals. They will however, be starting over and thus long-term junior pilots with excessive risks due to being perpetually junior in their careers for an extended period of time at various carriers. Pilots who go to those presently expanding carriers ahead of them will be in a better position and more senior, but that is simply just my opinion. Even if you disagree, you should at least consider that possibility. The junior at AA may just end up the Hare and those that took a chance at another LCC, might just be the tortoises and we know who fared better in that race. It wasn’t the fastest, but the most prudent and strategic.
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 06-29-2018 at 08:40 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NoOtPilot View Post
    Let me try to explain in a very “IGNORANT” way, so you can understand...

    American Airlines decided to cancel its Chicago-Beijing route, which has been losing tens of millions of dollars every year. American Airlines is also reducing or eliminating service on several routes to Brazil.

    American Airlines is ready to make additional route adjustments if needed, such as dropping its other loss-making routes from Chicago to Asia. These moves may help American Airlines slow its profit declines.

    The domestic fare environment could be challenging for the foreseeable future, due to United Continental's aggressive growth plan.

    American Airlines may face stiff competition on domestic routes in the coming years.
    In the long run, JetBlue Airways' steady growth represents an even bigger threat.

    Unlike other competitors that American Airlines has faced in the past, JetBlue threatens to steal some of American's most valuable customers by underpricing it on premium seats -- and potentially offering better service.

    JetBlue's combination of price and service allowed it to become a force in the New York-Los Angeles and New York-San Francisco markets.
    It's upgraded 10 more transcontinental routes to its Mint premium service since then, with great success.

    Flights to Europe could be the carrier's next target. JetBlue is currently evaluating adding a long-range version of the Airbus A321 to its fleet, which would enable flights from the Northeast to much of Western Europe. A natural first step would be flying from its New York and Boston focus cities to London.

    These routes are particularly lucrative for the two carriers.
    With the A321LR, JetBlue could also fly from its Fort Lauderdale focus city further into South America, disrupting American's monopoly on several routes to South America from Miami. Thus, American Airlines could be uniquely vulnerable to JetBlue's future growth.

    Oil prices could continue to rise. Furthermore, increasing competition -- especially for premium passengers -- could erode American's unit revenue growth. To make matters worse, American Airlines has a huge debt load, making it vulnerable to an industry downturn.
    By contrast, JetBlue has a pristine balance sheet, with almost as much cash as debt on the books.

    ~ June 28, 2018 ~
    Hate all you want. The flow is WORKING.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    Yet they still knocked AA out of NYC, Boston and San Juan (actually AA surrendered in all three markets and this is recent in some cases). JetBlue, Spirit, Frontier and even Southwest and Allegiant all have growth (and merger) potential. AA has little to none. The bet is AA retirements will be the vehicle that propels a flow pilot rapidly up the ranks, but at least IMO, that vehicle is unreliable considering AA’s situation. If AA were in Delta’s shape with that retirement, then it would be a totally different story, but AA isn’t and never will be Delta.

    This is going to sting a bit, but I think the bottom 25-35% of the AA pilot list at any given point in time are the industries future journeymen or “floaters”. That being bubble pilots who will at some point become available in large numbers over a short period of time to fill needed seats at other carriers including the 2 legacies, the other LCC’s and even for the less marketable, the regionals. They will however, be starting over and thus long-term junior pilots with excessive risks due to being perpetually junior in their careers for an extended period of time at various carriers. Pilots who go to those presently expanding carriers ahead of them will be in a better position and more senior, but that is simply just my opinion. Even if you disagree, you should at least consider that possibility. The junior at AA may just end up the Hare and those that took a chance at another LCC, might just be the tortoises and we know who fared better in that race. It wasn’t the fastest, but the most prudent and strategic.
    More sideline analysis directly from Shady Acres Retirement Home cafeteria. Dude, so now you hate AA as much as Envoy. Probably because your time there was so SHORT. Get over it. You were part of the lost decade and there is nothing you can do about it. Hating on young Envoy guys who will spend 5 years here and then on and up to American just makes you more bitter. Get a hobby maybe. Shuffleboard, ping pong?

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    Quote Originally Posted by DolphinsFan View Post
    Hate all you want. The flow is WORKING.
    What does his post have to do with the flow working or not ? They could be flowing twice as many pilots, but that doesn't change AAG's situation, nor would it invalidate the points of concern being made. AA's situation has nothing to with how well the flow is or is not working.

    I think your intelligence level is doing a disservice to Dolphins who are known as quite intelligent. In the interest of their maintaining their reputation, might I suggest a TalkAirline identity change ? "Bambi" would my suggestion as deer (especially immature ones) have a tendency to react hastily using fear as their defense mechanism and end up making decisions that do them more harm then good.
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 06-29-2018 at 11:58 AM.

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