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Thread: Where will you be when the music stops?

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    I have been hearing that AA is looking to move more towards their cadet program instead of the flow. Maybe this is what he is hinting towards.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    Even worse advice to claim anyone WILL be at AA in X years. That part of this equation is a variable, not a constant.....and BTW, AA is the Envoy of the LCC’s, both run by the same “Team”.
    It's been glaringly obvious with all your screen names that you can't do simple math.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DolphinsFan View Post
    It's been glaringly obvious with all your screen names that you can't do simple math.
    Only one screen name. You’re just seeing ghosts where they don’t exist because it works for you. Your math isn’t “simple”, it’s fuzzy and it’s not my eyesight. It’s fuzzy because it is all based on assumptions and that terrifies you, so you lash outward at sources who force you to confront it. It terrifies you because deep down you know a lot of components will have to come together and STAY together for you to flow to AA and then actually not get hosed once you do flow.

    This is emotionally agonizing for you I know.

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    Quote Originally Posted by wiz5422 View Post
    I have been hearing that AA is looking to move more towards their cadet program instead of the flow. Maybe this is what he is hinting towards.
    AA’s Cadet Program feeds new pilots/instructors directly into the WO Cadet Programs. It’s basically an AA-branded financing solution that non-university flight schools have been begging for in order to compete in the domestic market (I.e. American pilots don’t have access to Chinese airline style ab-initio programs, and the vocational schools can’t secure the same financial aid options as the UNDs of the world). It also seems specifically designed to bypass the traditional degree to get to mainline philosophy. No universities were selected for partnership, which likely means they are looking for a hightschool-to-flight school model...meaning they won’t have to worry about Delta, Alaska, etc. poaching pilots.

    AA’s program doesn’t stand on it’s own... It manufactures new pilots for the WOs.

    Oh, and AA received thousands of qualified Cadet applications for the few initial spots.
    Last edited by check_six; 06-30-2018 at 04:45 PM.

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    Geez, it couldn't be any more obvious what these guys (Beagle and NoOT) are alluding to!
    Once us pesky senior pissed off, jaded, know more than the company wants us to know, Protected Pilots from the BK era are gone and out of thier hair, then they can reorganize a more docile pilot group, and perhaps merge Eaglevoy with one of the other two WO's (my $$$ on PDT), or both. This of course will throw future flow off track, as you integrate seniority with another flowing airline(s).
    This would also be a good time for AAG to file another BK, and rewrite all the contracts anyway.
    Did I get it right guys?

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    Quote Originally Posted by check_six View Post
    AA’s Cadet Program feeds new pilots/instructors directly into the WO Cadet Programs. It’s basically an AA-branded financing solution that non-university flight schools have been begging for in order to compete in the domestic market (I.e. American pilots don’t have access to Chinese airline style ab-initio programs, and the vocational schools can’t secure the same financial aid options as the UNDs of the world). It also seems specifically designed to bypass the traditional degree to get to mainline philosophy. No universities were selected for partnership, which likely means they are looking for a hightschool-to-flight school model...meaning they won’t have to worry about Delta, Alaska, etc. poaching pilots.

    AA’s program doesn’t stand on it’s own... It manufactures new pilots for the WOs.

    Oh, and AA received thousands of qualified Cadet applications for the few initial spots.
    In other words unlike AA’s competitors, AA feels the future pilot market will be dire enough to have to move pilots into AA with only high-school diplomas and has created a methodology to do that. In that they are correct, at least as it stands now AA will need FAR more pilots then their competitors be they the 2 legacy carriers or the other LCC’s. BUT, again that assumptive “model” only applies if no global, industry (or in the case of AA, carrier-specific) issues result in Parker again making the statement “the world has changed”. Under any of those situations, those “high school” Ab Initio pilots end up long-term Eagle carrier pilots with much longer (or possibly no) pathway to AA. Other more traditional Eagle carrier pilots pinning most of their hope for flying mainline size aircraft at the LCC AA via the flow will also be in the same boat. This model all hinges on no bumps in the road in any (or all) of the previously mentioned areas of uncertainty and for at least the next decade.

    That’s a tall order.

    But for the near future, it appears from various reports AA will be unlikely to train enough pilots to meet or exceed the rate of future retirements and that is of serious concern if AA is to maintain present market share. Again, as it stands even now from various reports, AA is working present pilots beyond what the other LCC's are doing and more like a regional and that’s at present. Not good, as it will take years for these high-school pilots to hit an Eagle carrier let alone AA. As for these future high-school pilots, I wonder what guarantees these contracts will provide to ensure they pay the rate-of-return these pilots are expecting. It may be they assume the guaranteed payoff will be AA, but it may just be an Eagle carrier or if bad timing occurs, a graduate certificate, their Comm/Multi/Inst. and a few hundred hours which won’t do them much good if the industry comes to a stop (and even if it doesn’t) for a significant period of time JUST like it has done periodically in the past. Not a good ROI for the risk unless there are some legal guarantees, if you ask me.

    On the application front, “thousands” might sound good, but what is the present definition of “qualified” mean ? Is that just basic quals or have these applicants been vetted for issues that require background checks including criminal history resulting in future elinination ? Then there’s always the issue of financing approval. Then there’s the issue of those jumping through all those hoops actually completing as true aptitude can only be determined once well into such a training program. Of course, then there’s always a percentage who simply drop out because they decide after beginning, it’s not their cup of tea just like many typical college students do switching majors or dropping certain classes. The number actually minted through the mill even with thousands of initial apps is likely to be a substantially smaller fraction of the initial interest. IMO, this source will not produce enough pilots to address AA’s future issues should nothing impact AA during the next decade and they actually do bring many thousands of pilots onboard and it is even less likely to solve the Eagle systems ravenous need for THOUSANDS of pilots over the coming years because unlike other regionals, the Eagle system has a built-in attrition engine called the “flow-thru” which if can’t be fueled, breaks down putting the whole operation, AA included stalled on the side of the road. That is, if they plan to flow significant numbers to AA in the coming years.

    The flow looks and sounds great, but the byproduct that few seem to want to confront is that it becomes its own Cookie Monster requiring a constant and large stream of cookies (pilots) to work. 5-10 years is a LONG time considering the present and future availability of entry-level pilots as poaching will slow dramatically soon, the colleges have limited supply, many of which will STILL go to other employers and the high-schoolers in this program are years away from availability and likely far fewer then needed.
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 07-01-2018 at 01:02 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Griff312 View Post
    Geez, it couldn't be any more obvious what these guys (Beagle and NoOT) are alluding to!
    Once us pesky senior pissed off, jaded, know more than the company wants us to know, Protected Pilots from the BK era are gone and out of thier hair, then they can reorganize a more docile pilot group, and perhaps merge Eaglevoy with one of the other two WO's (my $$$ on PDT), or both. This of course will throw future flow off track, as you integrate seniority with another flowing airline(s).
    This would also be a good time for AAG to file another BK, and rewrite all the contracts anyway.
    Did I get it right guys?
    I think OT and I have different specific messages. In addition to overall concerns similar to mine, he does allude to one issue and I will leave that to him. I on the other hand seek to paint a much broader concern of multiple issues (and timing) specific to AA because unlike their competitors, AA’s future situation doesn’t mimic the others. The 2 legacies (of which AA really isn’t anymore either in product or pilot QWL) A. Don’t seem to be continuing to rely on regional feed in the future to the degree AA is, B. Don’t have near the future pilot staffing concerns AA does, and C. Are in much better financial shape with a fraction of the debt. As for the increasingly more direct competitors (again in both product and pilot QWL) that being the other LCC’s (several of which arguably already have a better domestic economy class product and in some cases already better pilot QWL), also don’t have the debt, have more ability to expand, have better likelihood of mergers thus realizing their own economic synergistic benefits that have not been financially factored in and can attract pilots vie the draw of expansion. AA hinges its future pilot attraction on a flow-trough requiring most prospective pilots to tolerate a regional existence for at least a half decade, if not longer risking long, uncertain tenure doing it only.............to flow through to essentially just an LCC on steroids with from a pilots QWL standpoint, the same regional existence. Bigger plane with larger hourly rate, but little more from a working existence.

    It was said the major reason AA needed to merge with US Airways was that without it, AA would become “neither fish nor fowl”, meaning not a legacy like Delta and United, nor an LCC and thus no place to be in the future marketplace. Customers need to know what you are and so do investors. The merger has turned AA into an LCC, just the size of a legacy, but unlike either, it has a large regional system like a legacy (which Parker wants to grow with relaxed scope), but the product (and pilot compensation/QWL) of a LCC. AA is STILL neither fish nor fowl, but now a larger hybrid just with massive debt whose successful future is anchored on A. No major issues impacting its revenue stream including, but not limited to ability to staff BOTH mainline LCC and regional feeders (in many cases actually mainline replacers) with enough pilots and just as importantly FAST enough and again, along with no global, industry or other AA specific issues crippling that stream. It’s also virtually certain that the relationship between Parker and AA pilots is about to fall off a cliff (if that’s possible considering pilot culture is far worse then pre-merger) and worse pilot relations could be disasterous to an already questionably sailing (and steering) ship.

    As for OT’s specific issue (which I agree could be a major component of the future depending on as yet unknown variables), I’ll let him clue you in or not. Actually, it’s not that mysterious as the info is all out there, but most pilots are too lazy to research where their paychecks are coming from and what risks could change or eliminate them. Heck, most pilots don’t even do basic due diligence in “interviewing” their employers who are interviewing them, including background research, so it’s not surprising most are simply wandering sheep. I was one too, so I’m not lecturing, I’m confessing. Of course, that works to others advantage as clueless sheep are always easy to manipulate and isn’t that what flipper/dacuj are here for ? Also never surprising, when bumps in the road do hit that had many red flags, pilots universally run around in circles acting snake-bitten wondering how or why such things “suddenly” happen when all too frequenty, if you only paid attention, it wasn’t very sudden at all.
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 07-01-2018 at 01:14 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by check_six View Post
    AA’s Cadet Program feeds new pilots/instructors directly into the WO Cadet Programs. It’s basically an AA-branded financing solution that non-university flight schools have been begging for in order to compete in the domestic market (I.e. American pilots don’t have access to Chinese airline style ab-initio programs, and the vocational schools can’t secure the same financial aid options as the UNDs of the world). It also seems specifically designed to bypass the traditional degree to get to mainline philosophy. No universities were selected for partnership, which likely means they are looking for a hightschool-to-flight school model...meaning they won’t have to worry about Delta, Alaska, etc. poaching pilots.

    AA’s program doesn’t stand on it’s own... It manufactures new pilots for the WOs.

    Oh, and AA received thousands of qualified Cadet applications for the few initial spots.
    I rest my case.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    I think OT and I have different specific messages. In addition to overall concerns similar to mine, he does allude to one issue and I will leave that to him. I on the other hand seek to paint a much broader concern of multiple issues (and timing) specific to AA because unlike their competitors, AA’s future situation doesn’t mimic the others. The 2 legacies (of which AA really isn’t anymore either in product or pilot QWL) A. Don’t seem to be continuing to rely on regional feed in the future to the degree AA is, B. Don’t have near the future pilot staffing concerns AA does, and C. Are in much better financial shape with a fraction of the debt. As for the increasingly more direct competitors (again in both product and pilot QWL) that being the other LCC’s (several of which arguably already have a better domestic economy class product and in some cases already better pilot QWL), also don’t have the debt, have more ability to expand, have better likelihood of mergers thus realizing their own economic synergistic benefits that have not been financially factored in and can attract pilots vie the draw of expansion. AA hinges its future pilot attraction on a flow-trough requiring most prospective pilots to tolerate a regional existence for at least a half decade, if not longer risking long, uncertain tenure doing it only.............to flow through to essentially just an LCC on steroids with from a pilots QWL standpoint, the same regional existence. Bigger plane with larger hourly rate, but little more from a working existence.

    It was said the major reason AA needed to merge with US Airways was that without it, AA would become “neither fish nor fowl”, meaning not a legacy like Delta and United, nor an LCC and thus no place to be in the future marketplace. Customers need to know what you are and so do investors. The merger has turned AA into an LCC, just the size of a legacy, but unlike either, it has a large regional system like a legacy (which Parker wants to grow with relaxed scope), but the product (and pilot compensation/QWL) of a LCC. AA is STILL neither fish nor fowl, but now a larger hybrid just with massive debt whose successful future is anchored on A. No major issues impacting its revenue stream including, but not limited to ability to staff BOTH mainline LCC and regional feeders (in many cases actually mainline replacers) with enough pilots and just as importantly FAST enough and again, along with no global, industry or other AA specific issues crippling that stream. It’s also virtually certain that the relationship between Parker and AA pilots is about to fall off a cliff (if that’s possible considering pilot culture is far worse then pre-merger) and worse pilot relations could be disasterous to an already questionably sailing (and steering) ship.

    As for OT’s specific issue (which I agree could be a major component of the future depending on as yet unknown variables), I’ll let him clue you in or not. Actually, it’s not that mysterious as the info is all out there, but most pilots are too lazy to research where their paychecks are coming from and what risks could change or eliminate them. Heck, most pilots don’t even do basic due diligence in “interviewing” their employers who are interviewing them, including background research, so it’s not surprising most are simply wandering sheep. I was one too, so I’m not lecturing, I’m confessing. Of course, that works to others advantage as clueless sheep are always easy to manipulate and isn’t that what flipper/dacuj are here for ? Also never surprising, when bumps in the road do hit that had many red flags, pilots universally run around in circles acting snake-bitten wondering how or why such things “suddenly” happen when all too frequenty, if you only paid attention, it wasn’t very sudden at all.
    Blah blah blah blah BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH mother******.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DolphinsFan View Post
    I rest my case.
    ..and so do I.

    My argument is quite detailed with specifics (some would argue TOO detailed), while your argument is COMPLETELY ABSENT of specifics. It has no merit because there IS no argument. The goal of my argument has nothing to with the affecting flow per se (and in turn has ZERO effect on it), but about factors outside of, but that influence the future value of the flow. You laughingly rest YOUR case on one sentence of someone ELSE'S argument, which is descriptive in nature and not necessarily about the flow's reliability in the future, only present attraction for some. Again, it matters not how many sheep flock to Envoy to graze because they think it's a lush field, but about how long such a field will have grass to graze on.

    Virtually anyone and everyone here at Shady Acres could legally out argue you any day of the week and twice on days like today.
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 07-01-2018 at 02:12 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DolphinsFan View Post
    Blah blah blah blah BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH mother******.
    Didn't Cujo admonish you about name-calling ? Of course, that was multiple verbal insults ago, so obviously there's no jeopardy and since you have no ethics or integrity, why stop, eh ?

    All it does is highlight your anger, rage and mostly terror because again, deep down inside yourself where you can't go, you know my concerns and points are valid and so you attack outward. Your world must be truly terrifying.

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    The fish is just a leftist communistas at heart

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    Didn't Cujo admonish you about name-calling ? Of course, that was multiple verbal insults ago, so obviously there's no jeopardy and since you have no ethics or integrity, why stop, eh ?

    All it does is highlight your anger, rage and mostly terror because again, deep down inside yourself where you can't go, you know my concerns and points are valid and so you attack outward. Your world must be truly terrifying.
    Actually no, I didn't admonish him about anything. I approve of his positive message about the direction of Envoy and his attempts to go up against a handful of haters specific to this forum and nowhere else. That's it. About a handful of haters companywide.

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    Omg it lives and has taken over the name of the ghost of New York past

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    A ghost maybe, but he lives.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Robsquatch View Post
    Omg it lives and has taken over the name of the ghost of New York past
    It doesn’t know who it is anymore as it has now transitioned from low rent mocking to actual possession. From a psychiatric standpoint, a true fruit basket.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    Actually no, I didn't admonish him about anything. I approve of his positive message about the direction of Envoy and his attempts to go up against a handful of haters specific to this forum and nowhere else. That's it. About a handful of haters companywide.
    Once agoin your comprehension skills fail.
    Read it again. The post said Cujo, not Dacuj, or Mongo the mouth breathing window licker.
    Crawl back under your rock.
    Last edited by Sirsnacksalot; 07-02-2018 at 12:15 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Griff312 View Post
    Geez, it couldn't be any more obvious what these guys (Beagle and NoOT) are alluding to!
    Once us pesky senior pissed off, jaded, know more than the company wants us to know, Protected Pilots from the BK era are gone and out of thier hair, then they can reorganize a more docile pilot group, and perhaps merge Eaglevoy with one of the other two WO's (my $$$ on PDT), or both. This of course will throw future flow off track, as you integrate seniority with another flowing airline(s).
    This would also be a good time for AAG to file another BK, and rewrite all the contracts anyway.
    Did I get it right guys?

    Somebody gets it....
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    Didn't Cujo admonish you about name-calling ? Of course, that was multiple verbal insults ago, so obviously there's no jeopardy and since you have no ethics or integrity, why stop, eh ?

    All it does is highlight your anger, rage and mostly terror because again, deep down inside yourself where you can't go, you know my concerns and points are valid and so you attack outward. Your world must be truly terrifying.

    Im still watching. Just don’t want to pull the trigger too soon and be accused of bias. The debate is good. The insults are reaching even my limits, and I’ve been known to throw a barb or two myself.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ardvark View Post
    A ghost maybe, but he lives.
    Living well too.

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