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Thread: Where will you be when the music stops?

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    ďafter 5 years of a raised age to 70, retirements start again, but does that equate to no lost value in the flow during the first 5 years Ē

    Your right, of course there is lost value but he didnít touch on that. You did. Nothing in that earlier post was wrong on its face value.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DolphinsFan View Post
    The retarded old man just can't let it go. Dude, your time has PASSED. Let it f ing go you old b*$tard. Times have changed. Lost decade is history. There have never been the amount of retirements upcoming before. Ever. GFY.
    Keepin classy as always.
    Iíll bet youíre a joy in person.

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by DolphinsFan View Post
    Oh boy. Here we go again. Do any of you not realize that AA has THOUSANDS of retirements over the next 10 years? This isn't the lost decade. This is the very best environment the industry has ever seen. And you wonder why guys are flocking to Envoy? Because of this environment coupled with the best flow and path to AA. Period.
    5 year bankruptcy status quo is over; right as AA announces elimination of hundreds of overlapping jobs.
    Still think AA will keep all 6 east coast bases open?
    A national-global catastrophe and the retirements will simply prevent furloughs as the airline contracts. Hiring would slow to a drip.

    As the pilot shortage continues, flow programs will become less and less important. That is why you are having to pay $113k to new hire street captains, flow alone isn't drawing them anymore.
    Last edited by Cujo665; 06-25-2018 at 03:56 PM.
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    lets all watch the name calling.... on all sides please.
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    Retirements is just 1/2 the equation. And they are making sure we know those numbers. The other 1/2 of the equation is what they are making sure you donít find out. And is going to be a little surprised for most. So, PLEASE, look beyond retirements, to make the most informative decision you can. Donít plan your career based on rumors. You guys are extremely smart. Do yourself a favor and look hard, I promise!, you will find the truth. It takes a lot of reading, but pilots donít read, they just react on rumors. Believe it or not, all we are trying to do is help you guys, nothing else. It will save you time and money. The more informed you are, the more senior you will be.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Robsquatch View Post
    “after 5 years of a raised age to 70, retirements start again, but does that equate to no lost value in the flow during the first 5 years ”

    Your right, of course there is lost value but he didn’t touch on that. You did. Nothing in that earlier post was wrong on its face value.
    Again, you are correct. It seems the difference is the focus, that being what really matters, the equation or the result. The equation sounds fine, but I argue it likely has little correlation to the result and for those flowing which is more important ? The "face value" of Letter 3 was FAR more specific in assumptions and in fact, had FAR more interim value while waiting to see when it matured (actual AA seniority), but even with all that, it was simply a volatile stock that took far longer then its face value to provide the expected result. The face value of the current stock (present flow mechanism) is worth FAR less then Letter 3 was and yet, some believe it will pay far more dividend all things being equal for a particular pilot.

    BAD (high risk) investment advice if you ask me.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cujo665 View Post
    lets all watch the name calling.... on all sides please.
    An excellent point. IF his assumptions and assertions were defendable in their foundation, he would be able to defend them. Instead, the response is the same old irrelevant hostility when confronted with realities that cannot be rationally explained away. It's what happens when you've no where to go in a discussion/debate.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cujo665 View Post
    5 year bankruptcy status quo is over; right as AA announces elimination of hundreds of overlapping jobs.
    Still think AA will keep all 6 east coast bases open?
    A national-global catastrophe and the retirements will simply prevent furloughs as the airline contracts. Hiring would slow to a drip.

    As the pilot shortage continues, flow programs will become less and less important. That is why you are having to pay $113k to new hire street captains, flow alone isn't drawing them anymore.
    Actually, in the case of the 3 legacies, such a situation would have an ancillary benefit in that their regional attrition would slow dramatically giving time for more entry-level pilots to become qualified. The airline that would benefit most would be AA considering their high reliance on RJ's and that very retirement schedule that is the engine of the flow-thru itself.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NoOtPilot View Post
    Retirements is just 1/2 the equation. And they are making sure we know those numbers. The other 1/2 of the equation is what they are making sure you donít find out. And is going to be a little surprised for most. So, PLEASE, look beyond retirements, to make the most informative decision you can. Donít plan your career based on rumors. You guys are extremely smart. Do yourself a favor and look hard, I promise!, you will find the truth. It takes a lot of reading, but pilots donít read, they just react on rumors. Believe it or not, all we are trying to do is help you guys, nothing else. It will save you time and money. The more informed you are, the more senior you will be.
    WTF are you talking about?

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    He means as a new hire 50 yr old donít wait 10 yrs for the flow. Youíll make more money and be more senior by going to a spirit or JetBlue.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Robsquatch View Post
    He means as a new hire 50 yr old donít wait 10 yrs for the flow. Youíll make more money and be more senior by going to a spirit or JetBlue.
    Seriously bad advice. If hired at 50, you would be at AA by age 56. 9 full years at AA beats the pants off the Mesa of the LCCs and only moderately better Jetblue.

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    The flow has 30 month left, maybe less. The clock keeps ticking...
    That 50 years old, will retire at Envoy unless he makes a move. Letís call him ďCharlie Bucketís Dad.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DolphinsFan View Post
    Seriously bad advice. If hired at 50, you would be at AA by age 56. 9 full years at AA beats the pants off the Mesa of the LCCs and only moderately better Jetblue.
    Even worse advice to claim anyone WILL be at AA in X years. That part of this equation is a variable, not a constant.....and BTW, AA is the Envoy of the LCC’s, both run by the same “Team”.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NoOtPilot View Post
    The flow has 30 month left, maybe less. The clock keeps ticking...
    That 50 years old, will retire at Envoy unless he makes a move. Let’s call him “Charlie Bucket’s Dad.
    We know one serious question is, what situation will those who do flow over the next 30 months be in who are then very junior at AA ?

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    A guy at American for nine years will only expect to be on the 777 or 787 for a year or two. Whatís the difference between 737 at southwest or American? Besides lots more total income going to southwest

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    Quote Originally Posted by C140pilot View Post
    WTF are you talking about?
    YeH, wtf is he talking about??

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    Quote Originally Posted by Glo227 View Post
    YeH, wtf is he talking about??
    Almost there, 30 more bids...just enough time to flow the protected pilots. My advice to the Non Protected Pilot Group, get involved in the union...you will need all the help you can get.

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    Why does the flow only have 30 bids left? Are you saying itís non existent past that?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dvtpilot View Post
    Why does the flow only have 30 bids left? Are you saying itís non existent past that?
    No, he seems to believe he has some super secret info that no one else is privy to. Or that he can see into the future, and something big will happen in two years. Crystal ball stuff. Either way, I donít think anybody takes him seriously.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NoOtPilot View Post
    Almost there, 30 more bids...just enough time to flow the protected pilots. My advice to the Non Protected Pilot Group, get involved in the union...you will need all the help you can get.
    Please, oh please, great wizard, tell us what will happen in 30 months.

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