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Thread: Where will you be when the music stops?

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    Where will you be when the music stops?


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    Lots of comical reading on various threads on other forums and sites. When talking about why to go to a wholly owned, lots of folks are saying it’s a “guaranteed” job at AA.
    What nobody fails to mention or realize is that just one international incident, sudden financial crisis, or any number of other things can cause the music to stop.
    Once it happens, don’t think for a minute that the flow will be the same once things are trending towards normalcy.
    My point is to not be caught flat footed and keep your resumes up to date with whomever else you might want to possibly fly for.
    I’ve flown with many people over the last couple of years that have this”I’m just doin my time here coastin along and chillin.”
    Last edited by Sirsnacksalot; 06-23-2018 at 11:24 PM.

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    On my beach front property absorbing the warmth of the sun and a lot of alcohol for numbing purposes

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    Remember ďThe 125ísĒ Group
    😎😎😎😎😎

    Is no coincidence the union brought this up in a recent email...

    Withholding Ė a Podcast!
    Withholding is incredibly complicated subject and a frequent torment for our MEC Vice-Chairman...has done a fantastic job keeping track of the various withholding scenarios that have played out over the last few years and answering hundreds of pilot questions about the topic, all while only gaining several thousand new gray hairs. Thousands and thousands of dollars have been secured for our pilots that finished training out of order, but withholding isn't as simple as junior vs. senior.
    Last edited by NoOtPilot; 06-24-2018 at 11:03 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sirsnacksalot View Post
    Lots of comical reading on various threads on other forums and sites. When talking about why to go to a wholly owned, lots of folks are saying it’s a “guaranteed” job at AA.
    What nobody fails to mention or realize is that just one international incident, sudden financial crisis, or any number of other things can cause the music to stop.
    Once it happens, don’t think for a minute that the flow will be the same once things are trending towards normalcy.
    My point is to not be caught flat footed and keep your resumes up to date with whomever else you might want to possibly fly for.
    I’ve flown with many people over the last couple of years that have this”I’m just doin my time here coastin along and chillin.”
    Perfectly predictable behavior.

    Although NO ONE can predict the future, one CAN identify red flags for increased risk of downside in an investment and let's face it, the flow to AA IS an investment. Is it a CD with FDIC protections or a volatile stock that just happens to be on an uptick and subject to possibility of future margin call ? The answer to that question is it is whatever a specific investor (pilot) believes it to be. Unfortunately, from a historical perspective, most pilots consider it a CD with FDIC protection. Pilots are pilots and are VERY predictable based on past behavior. Past Envoy (Eagle) pilots were told of "guaranteed" flow to AA in X years and believed it to be a CD only to be proven it was a stock that had to mature far longer before it could pay off. Great disappointment and cynicism resulted. Some of those past investors post here and elsewhere trying to teach new investors to be a bit more realistic in what their investment is. But, not surprisingly, most STILL believe they have a CD and will until proven otherwise and that's why most Envoy investors choose to go long on their investment instead of making the effort to hedge that investment.....they don't concern themselves with past market indicators. Oh sure, many probably put out and update resumes, but active involvement in their investment future usually isn't in play.

    It's easier to sit idle and go long when you've convinced yourself (or by others) that you have a CD simply waiting for a guaranteed set maturity date and much more difficult to beat the streets looking for other potential opportunities and hedges. It's simply the pilots way and we all know when it comes to investments (or protecting the value of an investment like a Collective Bargaining Agreement), pilots usually run in or near the red. Just like the Scorpion, it's in their nature. It's only a matter of time IMO when the next round of investors discover the CD they thought they had wasn't a CD and there are plenty of asterisks and fine print out there to prove it. Whenever that DOES occur, it will simply spawn a new round of cynical investors, some of whom then go on to warn the next group to come along and the process repeats itself JUST as it has over the last 20 years.
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 06-24-2018 at 11:20 PM.

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    Oh boy. Here we go again. Do any of you not realize that AA has THOUSANDS of retirements over the next 10 years? This isn't the lost decade. This is the very best environment the industry has ever seen. And you wonder why guys are flocking to Envoy? Because of this environment coupled with the best flow and path to AA. Period.

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    AA kiss a**

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    While I agree dolphin is usually full of ****e I canít say he isnít right on this point

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    Quote Originally Posted by Robsquatch View Post
    While I agree dolphin is usually full of ****e I can’t say he isn’t right on this point
    Are you sure ? It’s an honest question. What quantitative data proves that just because AA has a large number of future retirements, THIS time it’s all different ? Does that change the other outside factors that exist and ensure THEY will never come into play ? In regards to the “lost decade” claim, it then resulted in thousands of furloughs, but with AA’s retirements, a similar situation might not result in the need to furlough, but could result in simply another method of reduction in force (contraction at the rate of attrition as one example) with the same result for prospective flows and that’s zero movement upward to AA.

    Again, might I suggest watching the great film The Big Short ? If you don’t want to watch that movie, YouTube has a clip titled “Mark Baum meets a CDO manager”. Flipper’s assumption is described in that segment of that film and it’s a common error in investing (and betting/gambling which is another form of investing, just with high risk) and again, the flow to AA MUST be considered an investment. In that segment is an example of that classic error called the “Hot Hand Fallacy” and it is the assumption whatever is happening now is going to continue to happen in the future.

    Flipper is convinced he and you have a “hot hand” and this time is different. I simply think differently and 6-7 years is a LONG time to play one hand and consider it hot the entire time.
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 06-24-2018 at 11:24 PM.

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    So tell us Nostradolphinas, what do you think would happen to hiring and the flow should another group of terrorists decide to try something and succeed with transport aircraft, or a world financial crisis, SARS or Ebola outbreak?

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    Whom is the question to?

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    Quote Originally Posted by ardvark View Post
    Whom is the question to?
    I guess you didnít get my subtle barb at flipper.

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    Sorry, your correct, read the real one.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sirsnacksalot View Post
    So tell us Nostradolphinas, what do you think would happen to hiring and the flow should another group of terrorists decide to try something and succeed with transport aircraft, or a world financial crisis, SARS or Ebola outbreak?
    Donít forget this...
    An aircraft boneyard, is a storage area for aircraft that are retired from service. Most aircraft at boneyards have their parts removed and then scrapped.

    Time is beyond our control, and the clock keeps ticking.

    Hope you are in a happy place and not on reserve...when the music stops.

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    I greatly dislike having to do this but here goes.


    Quote Originally Posted by DolphinsFan View Post
    Oh boy. Here we go again. Do any of you not realize that AA has THOUSANDS of retirements over the next 10 years? True
    This isn't the lost decade. True
    This is the very best environment the industry has ever seen. Certainly in the last 10 yrs
    And you wonder why guys are flocking to Envoy? As we are seeing itís ignorance, flow, and bonus
    Because of this environment coupled with the best flow and path to AA. Period. Not the best based on some metrics

    .

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    I also greatly dislike having to do this, but here goes;


    “Do any of you not realize that AA has THOUSANDS of retirements over the next 10 years?”

    Yes true, unless there is another increase in the retirement age in the future, BUT does it ensure there will be no cessation of hiring (and thus flow) should non related forces result in negative impact to this industry ? Absolutely not.

    “This isn't the lost decade.”

    What IS the “lost decade” ? The lost decade as some like to call it was both a CAUSE and a RESULT. Its causes or others with the same impact still exist and the result could very easily produce dramatic reduction or even cessation of flow to AA, mainline furlough or no furlough. The only new variable in this equation is time. Time since the lost decade is now a decade itself and the cyclical nature of this industry is approaching increasing higher risk of cycling down just as it always periodically has. Will the next 6-7 years be devoid of any increased risk ? HIGHLY unlikely as that would push this industry peak well past historical norms.

    “This is the very best environment the industry has ever seen.”

    Historically, the largest retractions in this industry have occurred at the peaks, not at mid climb on the curve. Also historically, it has been both unforeseen (unless you sobering look at the red flags), sudden and usually fairly rapid. Beware of the “Hot Hand Fallacy”. It’s called a fallacy for a very good reason.

    “And you wonder why guys are flocking to Envoy? Because of this environment coupled with the best flow and path to AA. Period.”

    Meaningless. It would be more meaningful if pilots functioned strategically using due diligence, instead of emotionally using only assumption as their compass. Not much different from the knee-jerk reactions of many running to other regionals in the 1990’s and early 2000’s for street captains positions only to have the rug pulled out from under them. To assume this erroneous phenomena is some type of validation of future success is absurd.
    Last edited by Beagleboy; 06-25-2018 at 09:49 AM.

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    God dang. Your both right. How is that even possible. Quick point, I wouldnít be surprised if retirement age crept up a bit but I donít see it going to 75 sooooo there will still be thousands of retirements in the next 10 yrs

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    Quote Originally Posted by Robsquatch View Post
    God dang. Your both right. How is that even possible. Quick point, I wouldn’t be surprised if retirement age crept up a bit but I don’t see it going to 75 sooooo there will still be thousands of retirements in the next 10 yrs
    67-70 is the age range mentioned, so that would only result in a few years of can kicking. But, that would almost certainly impact the flow and not in a good way. It would however be a fantastic development for the regional airlines (and the legacies that depend on them) as anything that slows attrition would be good for them. Personally, I don’t think it likely, but considering Trump and the Republican Congress’s penchant for helping big business, anything’s possible. I think it far more likely the next “lost decade” will occur sometime in the next few years. It might not be a decade that is lost, but again, it means the flow isn’t a CD, but a volatile stock whose value is unstable and can change quickly with little or no warning. Going long on stocks is one plan, but the term “long” must be understood.

    OT talks about “the music stopping” and that’s good advice IMO. Not to say when that may happen, but understanding the history of THIS music means you could be in your present chair longer then anticipated, so do your best to understand it is a chair you may have to accept. That means deciding what gambles and risks you’re willing to take. Going long on the AA flow with the present indicators and timing ? Fine, but if your stock tanks and your present chair becomes your home for awhile, NO whining. You, the investor chose your strategy and risk. It might be a good exercise to plan for that just in case and figure a 3, 5 and even 10 year financial household plan beyond projected flow date based on present Envoy scale and live within that.

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    Beagle boy I admire your drive. Your right on so many points and for sure Iím not a dacuj/flipper fan but you need to be careful not to jump the shark and say someone is wrong when it clearly isnít. For instance even if retirement is raised 5 yrs there will still be thousands of retirements in the following 5. I think anyone would recognize that broad brush as true. I do agree that flipper lies through omission and purposely only sees the industry through rose colored glasses

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    Quote Originally Posted by Robsquatch View Post
    Beagle boy I admire your drive. Your right on so many points and for sure I’m not a dacuj/flipper fan but you need to be careful not to jump the shark and say someone is wrong when it clearly isn’t. For instance even if retirement is raised 5 yrs there will still be thousands of retirements in the following 5. I think anyone would recognize that broad brush as true. I do agree that flipper lies through omission and purposely only sees the industry through rose colored glasses
    I didn't say he was "wrong", I asked you are you sure if he's right ? On the surface (in a vacuum) his claims are technically right, but I think it's more important to determine if his equation equals the result he implies it does. He can hold up some cash and demonstrate $10 plus another $10 equals $20 and be correct, but is that the same as you being $20 richer ? That's all I'm saying and was asking you. As for the retirement issue you describe, yes, after 5 years of a raised age to 70, retirements start again, but does that equate to no lost value in the flow during the first 5 years ? If all the legacies get another retirement break of X years, it would produce few new slots at any carrier with little need or ability to expand like the legacies including AA. Some of the LCC's will expand in the future though, so growth and advancement there is more likely under such a scenario.

    I just think pilots need to be better investors in their careers instead of following their traditional tack of going long on assumptions and all too frequently getting the short end of the stick. That and listening to those claiming they have the investment of the future that is guaranteed to pay off big returns. That reminds me of Decaprio's character in The Wolf of Wall Street when he first sits down in the Penny Stock outfit after the big crash and proceeds (to the amazement of everyone there) to demonstrate mastery of the art of B.S.

    You DON'T want to be the chump on the other end of that phone.

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    The retarded old man just can't let it go. Dude, your time has PASSED. Let it f ing go you old b*$tard. Times have changed. Lost decade is history. There have never been the amount of retirements upcoming before. Ever. GFY.

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