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Thread: Flow in 6 Years

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    Registered User DolphinsFan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr mojo View Post
    You need to account for attrition, but that being said, Ric is stretching the truth. Really stretching it. PP and 10/10/11 group etc have different flow rates. He would need a ton of attrition to account for 5 year flow.
    Trust me. It's legit. You'll see.

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    April Fools!

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    Quote Originally Posted by DolphinsFan View Post
    Trust me. It's legit. You'll see.
    Guys need to remember those 200ish senior guys or so who declined flow.... they’ll be retiring within that time period.
    Thats an easy 8-10 months off the flow calculation as they retire out. Plus the attrition of guys going to better legacies.
    I’d say it’s entirely possible.

    I’d also say that as we move forward, the backup of flow becomes less and less relevant as hiring picks up even more. Probably why $45k isn’t attracting as many HVA takers as it initially did.
    __________________________________________________ __

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cujo665 View Post
    Guys need to remember those 200ish senior guys or so who declined flow.... they’ll be retiring within that time period.
    Thats an easy 8-10 months off the flow calculation as they retire out. Plus the attrition of guys going to better legacies.
    I’d say it’s entirely possible.

    I’d also say that as we move forward, the backup of flow becomes less and less relevant as hiring picks up even more. Probably why $45k isn’t attracting as many HVA takers as it initially did.
    But, if they retire those are still captains that need to be replaced and Envoy has a serious “Captain” problem brewing. As of now they don’t exist or compute in the flow projections anyway, so I see this aspect primarily as a negative. As for flipper, he asks for blind “trust” offering ZERO in substance to refute current factors, which considering his past bankruptcy of credibility and Chrisian-style venom leaves one with little to work with in confidence of the future being any different then that past in regards to the flow.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cujo665 View Post
    Guys need to remember those 200ish senior guys or so who declined flow.... they’ll be retiring within that time period.
    Thats an easy 8-10 months off the flow calculation as they retire out. Plus the attrition of guys going to better legacies.
    I’d say it’s entirely possible.

    I’d also say that as we move forward, the backup of flow becomes less and less relevant as hiring picks up even more. Probably why $45k isn’t attracting as many HVA takers as it initially did.
    Those senior lifers aren’t even taken into account when determining flow time projections. They are completely a moot point when figuring what flow time is currently or what it may be in the future.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DolphinsFan View Post
    Trust me. It's legit. You'll see.
    I feel better already

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    First you say this.
    “I can vouch for this. Flow back to 5 years. Ask me how I know.”
    Then you answer with this.
    “Trust me. It’s legit. You’ll see.”
    That’s your answer?
    GMAFB

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    All this talk about how long the flow is reminds me of when nobody believed the company when they said upgrade times would be 2 years when they were currently 7+

    Not saying it will or won’t be 5 years. Just pointing out the fact that nobody believed the company on upgrade times and look what happened.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Skytrails View Post
    All this talk about how long the flow is reminds me of when nobody believed the company when they said upgrade times would be 2 years when they were currently 7+

    Not saying it will or won’t be 5 years. Just pointing out the fact that nobody believed the company on upgrade times and look what happened.
    Trust me, I hope I am wrong. The earlier I get out of here the better. I just hope it is true. I am just scared what the union gave up for this.

    I am pretty sure that the company was/had to do this anyways no matter if we gave up anything or not. I hope the union was smart enough to know that and didn't sell the house for this.

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    Every pilot on property who "talks back" to envoy via the Facebook recruitment page gets called down to Dallas as punishment. Yet, they won't publish WHY it'll be 5 years. All we want to know is how they get the 5 year estimate but if you dare contradict the recruitment team with facts and data, they don't give you data. They punish you for calling them out on their lies.

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    Quote Originally Posted by schmuck View Post
    Those senior lifers aren’t even taken into account when determining flow time projections. They are completely a moot point when figuring what flow time is currently or what it may be in the future.
    True. Just got burned by facts. Those top 200 could have flowed YEARS ago.

  12. #32
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    What does the latest ALPA interactive seniority list show for flow times of the most junior? That takes into account some of the attrition variables, and yet, still has shown to be overly optimistic.

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    Quote Originally Posted by eaglepilot View Post
    Every pilot on property who "talks back" to envoy via the Facebook recruitment page gets called down to Dallas as punishment. Yet, they won't publish WHY it'll be 5 years. All we want to know is how they get the 5 year estimate but if you dare contradict the recruitment team with facts and data, they don't give you data. They punish you for calling them out on their lies.
    THIS! I have d@mned near bit my ******g tongue off, trying to not call them out on their blatant BS. Amazing that the can twist the truth and state flat out lies but as soon as someone corrects them, BOOM! Off to Dallas you go, to get your wee wee smacked...
    You're right, if they would like us to support these outlandish statements, then they need to show us proof that what they state is fact.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Skytrails View Post
    All this talk about how long the flow is reminds me of when nobody believed the company when they said upgrade times would be 2 years when they were currently 7+

    Not saying it will or won’t be 5 years. Just pointing out the fact that nobody believed the company on upgrade times and look what happened.
    Look at the root causes of fast upgrades and you see that works in opposition to the flow. I’d like to see fast flow for Envoy pilots too, but to do that Envoy has to eliminate any pilot shortage for both seats for at least 6-7 years for those on property now under the present situation. For this to change, a MAJOR shift in how AAG does business and the relationship between mainline and their regional system must occur.

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    Quote Originally Posted by eaglepilot View Post
    Every pilot on property who "talks back" to envoy via the Facebook recruitment page gets called down to Dallas as punishment. Yet, they won't publish WHY it'll be 5 years. All we want to know is how they get the 5 year estimate but if you dare contradict the recruitment team with facts and data, they don't give you data. They punish you for calling them out on their lies.
    Traditional social media (and pilot forums) have little impact on the success or lack thereof in recruiting. Word of mouth outside of that and direct experience (both intertwined) will do most of that. What you see with fake news, false promises and huge carrots are simply demonstrations that they are running out of both pilots and options and the result is inevitable.

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    How are people being “disciplined” for calling them out with facts?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sirsnacksalot View Post
    How are people being “disciplined” for calling them out with facts?
    Will you just stop it? OK? How about trying to get onboard and help recruiting instead of going against them at every turn. What a novel idea. Support your own company for a change.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BOHICA View Post
    What does the latest ALPA interactive seniority list show for flow times of the most junior? That takes into account some of the attrition variables, and yet, still has shown to be overly optimistic.
    9+ years

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sirsnacksalot View Post
    How are people being “disciplined” for calling them out with facts?
    They are being sent to DFW to meet with big wigs.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DolphinsFan View Post
    Will you just stop it? OK? How about trying to get onboard and help recruiting instead of going against them at every turn. What a novel idea. Support your own company for a change.
    How about recruitment post factual data on their page. A direct entry captain making 110k year one? BS. Most 10 year captain barely go over 100k. Why won't they provide flow numbers?

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