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Thread: New Update On Flow

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    Registered User NoOtPilot's Avatar
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    New Update On Flow


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    Five Year Flow

    Current time to flow for a new hire based on company insistence on adhering to contractual flow bare minimums: 8.5 - 9 YEARS

    Last Flow to AA
    DOH 12/5/2005

    Source: ALPA
    December 9th, 2017
    Last edited by NoOtPilot; 12-11-2017 at 09:42 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NoOtPilot View Post
    Five Year Flow

    Current time to flow for a new hire based on company insistence on adhering to contractual flow bare minimums: 8.5 - 9 YEARS

    Last Flow to AA
    DOH 12/5/2005

    Source: ALPA
    December 9th, 2017
    So, today's new hires can expect to flow in a minimum of 8.5 years and thatís with no hiccups, which should be expected, especially considering weíre talking almost a decade. I assume the usual suspects will be along shortly to spin this as ďfake newsĒ or attempt to dilute its significance as just a ďprojectionĒ. Of course, in the latter case, remember that they stood by projections when it favored their sales spin of short flow times.

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    Oh boy. Iím gone for a week on company business and come back to the usual griping with of course, Beagleboy egging it all on.

    May I ask, where in the he** did you get those fake numbers? Not even close to reality. My guess is some union spun numbers to try and bolster a grievance case. Yes, Envoy is growing. Good thing. Yes, we need more bodies. Good thing. Short term pain for even bigger gain on the back end. Thatís where you guys canít see the forest for the trees. Get real for a change.

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    ALPA published those numbers in latest MEC Blast. It's based on the contract, the company refusing to flow more than the metered amount, and math. Please enlighten us on how you come up with anything other than these numbers because they're pretty black and white calculations based on the contract and metering.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    Oh boy. Iím gone for a week on company business and come back to the usual griping with of course, Beagleboy egging it all on.

    May I ask, where in the he** did you get those fake numbers? Not even close to reality. My guess is some union spun numbers to try and bolster a grievance case. Yes, Envoy is growing. Good thing. Yes, we need more bodies. Good thing. Short term pain for even bigger gain on the back end. Thatís where you guys canít see the forest for the trees. Get real for a change.
    Right on schedule from the Cube of Truth (sarc). THAT was the primary purpose and point of my post, i.e., that the DMG would be along shortly to attempt damage control from the reality of apparent fact. Besides, if I was interested in being an instigator (as in "egging it all on"), I would have started such a thread myself. I think it would be pretty stupid of ALPA to lie as that could come back to haunt them, so their claim IMO carries more weight then the DMG's lies, spin, embellishments and snookery. To wit, the CEO of the DMG above trumpets all these apparently wonderful developments like hiring, growth and fast upgrades (even against pilots desire), but this latest revelation proves NONE of it translates to improved flow to AA............none of it.

    Zero, zip, nada, nothing burger, goose egg.

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    We need MMOOOOOAAARRRRRR FKN FLLLOOOOWWWWW!!!!

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    Moar

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    Please tell us when a new hire, hired TODAY can expect to flow? Just the facts using the flow numbers in the contract and using the ACTUAL flow being used today?

    Please enlighten us oh wise one.

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    Most junior guy SELECTED is 07/2006. They probably wonít flow until FEB. Can we pick up the pace please?

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    Read your contract. You voted it in. Min is min.

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    Oh look, Neider is back from his company paid vacation!

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    Quote Originally Posted by ardvark View Post
    Read your contract. You voted it in. Min is min.
    Yeah I know. FYI I voted NO for the BK contract. Iím about to get out of here. Only took 11 years.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ardvark View Post
    Min is min.
    A critical point all need to understand. To reiterate what Iíve said previously, the flow in all its methodologies has always been a minimum return on investment career vehicle for pilots here and considering the future having way more potential obstacles then the past did, primarily the rapidly decreasing pool of entry-level pilots, especially Captains, it is rational to assume minimum rate will continue and the present projections of at least 8.5 years will take a bit longer with periodic hiccups over the next decade.

    Considering how many pilots will be needed at all the legacies and LCCís over that coming decade, Iíd bet the overwhelming majority of todayís Envoy new-hires will be gone before their flow projection date arrives anyway.

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    My point was not meant to be sarcastic, only that if the contract allows a minimum, then that is what it will be no matter all the complaining. Amr/aag will never do anything above the bearest minimum in anything except to f u c k you over, on this they go full speed.
    Use this as a plan b, plan a should be to get out any way you can.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ardvark View Post
    My point was not meant to be sarcastic, only that if the contract allows a minimum, then that is what it will be no matter all the complaining. Amr/aag will never do anything above the bearest minimum in anything except to f u c k you over, on this they go full speed.
    Use this as a plan b, plan a should be to get out any way you can.
    Yes plan B. Try to get out if you can. Itís always easier said than done. Itís obvious that it will be minimum. Why? Well they got what they wanted. Low senority to move metal. I was in the 824, it was only an arbitrators decision that made that crap work. But they wanted us gone anyways because we were getting paid too much. Most of us were grandfathers into our pay, which I believe went to an 18yr rate.

    I know a lot of us held on to the flow primarily for the vacation time, and bringing our sick time over. I couldnít justify going somewhere else and starting over and losing 4 weeks of vacation. That being said, if I was 30 and not 40, I wouldnít have cared. The older you get , and if you have a family, it makes decisions a little different than if youíre 30 and single.

    I wish everyone good luck. Iíve kept in touch with folks. Iíve seen guys getting out and moving on to ual,dal, fed ex, and a few AA. Thatís good news, hope it continues.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ardvark View Post
    My point was not meant to be sarcastic, only that if the contract allows a minimum, then that is what it will be no matter all the complaining. Amr/aag will never do anything above the bearest minimum in anything except to f u c k you over, on this they go full speed.
    Use this as a plan b, plan a should be to get out any way you can.
    They are going to find out that they can A.) Care now about Endeavor's (et al) contract/pay/QoL enhancements now and lock in pilots early by matching and exceeding other contract increases or they can B.) Care about the problem later after all those pilots they could have had have gone elsewhere and are forever gone. Either way, AAG is going to care. I highly doubt anybody (or appreciable numbers of pilots) leave Delta/United/Southwest/FedEx/UPS to come to American. The exact opposite is what I hear from jump-seaters.

    As far as I can tell we've been hovering around 2,000-2,200 pilots for the last what? 2 years? Might be time to rely on something other than "flow" and gimmicky bonuses to get pilots in the door if they are really serious about growing the airline (how's that Philly base looking? Are we back in the Nest in LA yet? What about *gasp* The Rock?).

    The question is this: how long are they going to rely on (metered) Aunt Flow until Delta/United give the same thing (or damn-near it) to their wholly-owned's due to their projected needs for pilots due to retirement? At that point it's game over for "somebody has to be 4th of 4" anti-labor AAG. Too big to fail? So was Pan Am/TWA/Eastern...
    Last edited by Vne; 12-11-2017 at 07:53 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vne View Post
    They are going to find out that they can A.) Care now about Endeavor's (et al) contract/pay/QoL enhancements now and lock in pilots early by matching and exceeding other contract increases or they can B.) Care about the problem later after all those pilots they could have had have gone elsewhere and are forever gone. Either way, AAG is going to care. I highly doubt anybody (or appreciable numbers of pilots) leave Delta/United/Southwest/FedEx/UPS to come to American. The exact opposite is what I hear from jump-seaters.

    As far as I can tell we've been hovering around 2,000-2,200 pilots for the last what? 2 years? Might be time to rely on something other than "flow" and gimmicky bonuses to get pilots in the door if they are really serious about growing the airline (how's that Philly base looking? Are we back in the Nest in LA yet? What about *gasp* The Rock?).

    The question is this: how long are they going to rely on (metered) Aunt Flow until Delta/United give the same thing (or damn-near it) to their wholly-owned's due to their projected needs for pilots due to retirement? At that point it's game over for "somebody has to be 4th of 4" anti-labor AAG. Too big to fail? So was Pan Am/TWA/Eastern...
    And we are growing. Think 3000 plus.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    And we are growing. Think 3000 plus.
    How do you come up with any flow projections for new hires other than 8.5-9 years? Please explain your math.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacuj View Post
    And we are growing. Think 3000 plus.
    Great. Fantastic. How deep is that well? How are you/AAG going to do it when new hires can utilize the internet to compare pay scales/benefits/QoL versus OAL? The flow was a great thing in days gone by (and as insurance now) but I'm thinking that here in a few-to-6 months AAG/Envoy is going to be hurting again the same as it was in 2014-2015 before the bonuses and maybe, just maybe they realize that the metered flow isn't worth a tinker's damn to a 25 year-old who can look up retirement schedules for all the mainline carriers and realizes that their QoL will be higher elsewhere (as well as their bank accounts) and that at this point it's just a numbers game before it's their pick of employer/base due to market demand? Now you have United looking at taking a stake in XJet/ASA (good luck guys!) and buddy, I'm thinking you'd better realize "the world has changed" or this place gets left in the dust with mid-level management/labor left holding the bag as upper management bails on golden parachutes. Where in the pecking order do you lie?

    Caring about all this now is going to have a vastly higher ROI/lesser cost than caring about it later. Just my $.02.
    Last edited by Vne; 12-11-2017 at 08:47 PM.
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    Oh you're gonna get it on the back end alright. AAG is gonna give it to ya nice and slow just like the flow.

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