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Thread: Flow info

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr mojo View Post
    Everyone's sims have to come down in 2018 to update for stall training. This might impact the legacy carriers a little differently. If a 145 or 737 sim comes down for two months, they can absorb the training elsewhere. But if the 777/767/330 sims come down it has a trickle down affect. Upgrades and transitions slow down.

    This is my best guess.
    Yup and AA may meter their training by skipping a month (or more) of new-hires. That means no Envoy pilots like the past. You answered your own question to me. There is a difference between AA and Envoy though and that’s AA is trying to hire as many as needed, whereas Envoy is succeeding in flowing as few as possible. That means the two are operating against the interests of Envoy pilots who want to flow who get a smaller percentage of the flow pie. As long as Envoy is “metering” the flow, Envoy pilots lose out. Envoy is indeed meeting THEIR goal, but their goal is NOT Envoy pilots goal.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    Yup and AA may meter their training by skipping a month (or more) of new-hires. That means no Envoy pilots like the past. You answered your own question to me. There is a difference between AA and Envoy though and that’s AA is trying to hire as many as needed, whereas Envoy is succeeding in flowing as few as possible. That means the two are operating against the interests of Envoy pilots who want to flow who get a smaller percentage of the flow pie. As long as Envoy is “metering” the flow, Envoy pilots lose out. Envoy is indeed meeting THEIR goal, but their goal is NOT Envoy pilots goal.
    I agree with this but you made it seem like AA not hitting there hiring goals was a bad thing for the envoy pilots. Over all this is a good thing, for the envoy pilots, as long as AA hires no more than 50/mo. Of course they will have a month or two that is lower. They always have.

    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    They want 800+ new-hires this year ? I bet they’ll bog down and fall well short. Flow fell short last year and could this year.
    My guess is, you were trying to use this tidbit as, " the sky is falling". But then you realized this actually helps the MQ pilots and had to change the course a bit.

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    AA so far is maintaining their estimate of 570 new-hires. Hiring every month except December = 51.8 Pilots with 25 Envoy for 275 pilots. So far nothing good or bad from planned. If AA gets logjammed in the Summer, Envoy May fall below 275 or the monthly average of 25. Last year Envoy fell short of advertised, so nothing new.

    Bottom line is the ďplanĒ or what is advertised is just that and shouldnít be depended on too heavily.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    Bottom line is the ďplanĒ or what is advertised is just that and shouldnít be depended on too heavily.
    Agreed completely.


    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    AA so far is maintaining their estimate of 570 new-hires. Hiring every month except December = 51.8 Pilots with 25 Envoy for 275 pilots. So far nothing good or bad from planned. If AA gets logjammed in the Summer, Envoy May fall below 275 or the monthly average of 25. Last year Envoy fell short of advertised, so nothing new.
    A buddy of mine, sent me a screenshot from their website. It shows more than 570 for 2018. He said they are saying anywhere from 730-930. But 730 seems to be the more common answer now. Where did you get the 570 from? 570 would be better.
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    Last edited by Mr mojo; 02-16-2018 at 02:16 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr mojo View Post
    Agreed completely.


    A buddy if mine sent me this screenshot from their website. He said they are saying anywhere from 730-930. But 730 seems to be the more common answer now. Where did you get the 570 from?
    He pulled the 570 right out of his ass because he is a LIAR. I would take anything he says and flush it down the toilet because he thrives on spitting out lies and deceit to make it seem Envoy is on the brink of disaster.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr mojo View Post
    Agreed completely.


    A buddy of mine, sent me a screenshot from their website. It shows more than 570 for 2018. He said they are saying anywhere from 730-930. But 730 seems to be the more common answer now. Where did you get the 570 from? 570 would be better.
    You are correct. My error......itís 730. They usually run fewer through training in the Summer months and little, if any in December so hows January shaping up to meet the planned 730 with those factors ?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    You are correct. My error......itís 730. They usually run fewer through training in the Summer months and little, if any in December so hows January shaping up to meet the planned 730 with those factors ?
    Not likely.

    But again thatís a good thing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr mojo View Post
    Not likely.

    But again thatís a good thing.
    Well, if AA hires more then thatís not such a good thing for Envoy pilots, yes ? Worst (or best if youíre an Envoy flow) case scenario then would be 730 pilots with December classes at 61 per month. Did the hire 61 in January and February? If not they are already behind. Best (or worst if youíre an Envoy flow) of 930 and no December classes is 85 per month.

    I guess AA will really have to hit the hiring gas pedal this year going forward.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    Well, if AA hires more then that’s not such a good thing for Envoy pilots, yes ? Worst (or best if you’re an Envoy flow) case scenario then would be 730 pilots with December classes at 61 per month. Did the hire 61 in January and February? If not they are already behind. Best (or worst if you’re an Envoy flow) of 930 and no December classes is 85 per month.

    I guess AA will really have to hit the hiring gas pedal this year going forward.
    With AA's track record, you have to assume only 10 months of hiring at most - usually a break in July as they send the instructors to the line and then the December month off. And if last year is any prediction of this year, take another month say October as well.

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    Quote Originally Posted by snippercr View Post
    With AA's track record, you have to assume only 10 months of hiring at most - usually a break in July as they send the instructors to the line and then the December month off. And if last year is any prediction of this year, take another month say October as well.
    Perhaps theyíll do a bit better with the extra check airman and Sim Pís, but 730 is aggressive. 930 I canít see.

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    FB6658E5-92B5-4008-86E3-10EC87F88844.jpg
    There are the numbers from 2017

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    AA had projected 40 pilots


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    AA had projected 40 pilots


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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr.Lucky View Post
    Class 18-05


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    AA had projected 40 pilots


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    Thanks for the updates!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    You are correct. My error......itís 730. They usually run fewer through training in the Summer months and little, if any in December so hows January shaping up to meet the planned 730 with those factors ?
    This is the difference between some popular personalities. Some apologize and correct themselves while others attach and never admit mistakes.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr.Lucky View Post
    Class 18-13 (June 26, 2018)
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    2011 PSA and 2008 Peidmont new hires are flowing. Envoy is 2006/2007. When we flow 2008 new hires, PSA will be on 2013 and peidmont 2010.

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    Quote Originally Posted by eaglepilot View Post
    2011 PSA and 2008 Peidmont new hires are flowing. Envoy is 2006/2007. When we flow 2008 new hires, PSA will be on 2013 and peidmont 2010.
    It would seem the fastest way to AA via the flow isn't necessarily Envoy. Eventually things will even out, but in the interim pilots with less longevity at the other Eagle carriers will be getting a leg up on Envoy pilots. Probably another reason behind increasing the speed of flow for the ALPA reps at the expense of those not flowing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagleboy View Post
    It would seem the fastest way to AA via the flow isn't necessarily Envoy. Eventually things will even out, but in the interim pilots with less longevity at the other Eagle carriers will be getting a leg up on Envoy pilots. Probably another reason behind increasing the speed of flow for the ALPA reps at the expense of those not flowing.
    Im surprised nobody has initiated a career expectations suit to halt PSA & PDT flows until its matched. They had zero expectation of flow until 2012. Envoy pilots were waiting since the late 90’s.

    Pinnacle had a jumble of upgrades out of DOH between their three WO companies based on career expectations prior to the list integration.

    it could be argued that all three flowing to AA is a defacto list integration once at AA and that it is occurring well outside of what career expectations would have been.
    Last edited by Cujo665; 07-03-2018 at 05:55 PM.
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