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    Oddball


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    There is a guy on Eaglelounge who is making some good points. He gave me permission to repost his material. Enjoy







    I am getting ahead of myself here in what I intend to post but have you stopped to consider the following facts.


    An AAG spokes person, Casey Norton, if I remember correctly said that due to the failure to reach an agreement AAG intended to wait for the 2016 amendment round to renew talks.


    The amendment date is in October of that year but in reality you never wait until the amendment date to begin talks. So the company has admitted they have to talk to us in 2016 and have left a window open to return at anytime in the interim under the guise of starting amendment round talks.


    Nobody including the union or myself has denied the fact that the company will be able to staff the initial cadre of aircraft at other carriers. Rather, our assertion is that the company will not be able to sustain this model indefinitely and that the odds favor a swing in our direction sooner rather than later.


    How does this help you?


    If I understand your post you are saying you want PIC turbine time ASAP.


    Have you considered the fact that AAG is already failing to honor the intent of the PSA deal and that the PDT TA has more holes in it than Swiss cheese. DAL while promising future jobs at mainline is also playing games with the pilots at Endeavor and cannot staff.


    Bottom line is that managements know the word is out on the disastrous flow agreements of the past and are trying to repackage them with a different spin.


    But as the saying goes "fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me".
    Pilots are networking as never before and it's not as easy as it used to be to pull a "fast one" as they say.


    The fact is finally dawning on many pilots that if the hiring boom does materialize they won't need a FT and that in the meantime the here and now is what counts. In fact waiting for your slot in an FT could prove to be a detriment as it did to myself. You yourself are essentially saying the same thing except you would prefer an upgrade over compensation.


    Have you considered that due to the 824 agreement and other language our contract pretty much ensures the company cannot easily stop the flow to AA without facing substantial risk in penalties. For real or imagined bargaining purposes management must keep the Envoy flow to AA going strong. Managements argument is that we are not competitive due to longevity. The upcoming amendment round allows for an arbitrated settlement.


    If they jam up the flow and then argue longevity pay as the key issue the union will point out it is their own fault. Being businessmen they know this and you can bet the statisticians have been consulted to calculate the minimum number of pilots to flow while still maintaining their argument.


    On the other hand we have yet to see any substantial upward movement at PSA. Delivery of the larger aircraft is predicated on current staffing and parking the old fleet so movement will be mostly lateral. PDT will be no different if they except such a weakly worded TA.


    So in the short haul on what property do you think the most upward movement will be?


    I'd put my money on Envoy. We have a large fleet of smaller aircraft. Yes, they are obsolete in once sense. But just look around you in the terminals. They are packed and consumer demand is rising.


    How many times have airline managements announced fleet retirements only to back off as they realize without those so called obsolete aircraft continuing to work long into the transition of a new fleet that their operation will suffer. We've seen this on our AE property many times.


    Just yesterday I was talking to an AA MD80 captain who told me the word they are hearing is that Parker has shifted plans and now intends to keep the MD80s around for a long time to come, even perhaps reactivating retired aircraft.


    Unprofitable is managements definition of more expensive to operate versus newer larger aircraft. It does not mean these aircraft lose money; especially in the face of increased consumer competition for seats available.


    It's a double whammy if they park them too early. They lose revenue short term and even more importantly they lose potential repeat customers to competitors because of lack of available seats.


    I' m going to stop here, but hopefully you see where I am going with this and can reason it out.

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    Registered User ardvark's Avatar
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    good post
    Sir, can I have another.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ardvark View Post
    good post
    I agree
    The sustainability of Eagle with 50 seaters isn't a chapter 7 deal. Look at express jet. All they have is 50 seaters. Last i checked DTW is full of crj200s. TSA is an all 145 operation. I believe if management could get something for nothing they would take it. That 824 decision site showed management
    How many guys would flow. Every month we become cheaper. They're fear of given large jets to others is just that. Our old AIP was for 170 airframes, which is less than we
    Have. There should be no secret we are to shrink. When we get to a manageable size and most of the senior flow. Around early 2016 a new contract may infact bring new planes. Until then don't proffer or confirm on your first day back on reserve and have no one available prior to 10am. We have more power than we realize. We're glad you're here.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EGF View Post
    I agree
    The sustainability of Eagle with 50 seaters isn't a chapter 7 deal. Look at express jet. All they have is 50 seaters. Last i checked DTW is full of crj200s. TSA is an all 145 operation. I believe if management could get something for nothing they would take it. That 824 decision site showed management
    How many guys would flow. Every month we become cheaper. They're fear of given large jets to others is just that. Our old AIP was for 170 airframes, which is less than we
    Have. There should be no secret we are to shrink. When we get to a manageable size and most of the senior flow. Around early 2016 a new contract may infact bring new planes. Until then don't proffer or confirm on your first day back on reserve and have no one available prior to 10am. We have more power than we realize. We're glad you're here.
    http://i.imgur.com/5zp827E.gif

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    Registered User NoOtPilot's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ardvark View Post
    good post
    Agree.

    They want Evoy at around 1,400 active pilots. To staff aprox. 110 planes at Envoy + (20 to compass and 20 to PDT,) = a total of 150 planes to feed AAG, remember the original order was 60, 90 and that is 150 planes, which is the number that they guaranteed on this latest proposal down from 170( 118 + 47) on the previous one).

    110 175's x 76 seats = 8,360 seats.
    or
    118 EMB x 50 = 5,900
    47 CRJ x 64 = 3,008
    --------
    Total 8,908
    seats available
    per mile
    ASM

    Same capacity whith a lot less crews and a lot less planes.

    Keep in mind that the new Envoy building is 155,00sq/ft and simulators fit perfectly in it, but only when they reinforce the floor to sustain the weight of the sim.
    Last edited by NoOtPilot; 08-31-2014 at 01:59 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EGF View Post
    I agree
    The sustainability of Eagle with 50 seaters isn't a chapter 7 deal. Look at express jet. All they have is 50 seaters. Last i checked DTW is full of crj200s. TSA is an all 145 operation. I believe if management could get something for nothing they would take it. That 824 decision site showed management
    How many guys would flow. Every month we become cheaper. They're fear of given large jets to others is just that. Our old AIP was for 170 airframes, which is less than we
    Have. There should be no secret we are to shrink. When we get to a manageable size and most of the senior flow. Around early 2016 a new contract may infact bring new planes. Until then don't proffer or confirm on your first day back on reserve and have no one available prior to 10am. We have more power than we realize. We're glad you're here.
    The way they calculate it, it actually gets worse each month. Here is their warped way of thinking:
    the top most expensive 300-400 are not leaving; so as we shrink through attrition we actually become more senior (longevity wise) as a percentage of the whole. Isn't it amazing what they can do with numbers?

    on the OP's original topic; I like Oddball's posts.
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    I'd actually have to run the numbers, but if more 10+ year pilots leave the total cost savings vs. the lifers remaining could be greater.

    In other words, if (as seniority advances and people upgrade) if the average years of seniority at departure is 12 years and 500 people have to leave before the average system seniority begins to drop below the lifer's cost, the real problem is advancement and departure. Not the lifers. There may be little to no cost disparity between the overall pilot cost and any additional cost generated by the lifers. Plus, the fact that the offers the company has made to grandfather the lifer's pay scale in makes me think they really aren't that concerned about how much they cost, only creating a low-wage future for the entire airline.



    Typical, they create the problem but blame the pilots. If they let the flow work it would be a big step in dropping the large group in mid-seniority that have been waiting to upgrade for a long time. As soon as they upgrade, they cost a lot more because they've waited so long to upgrade.
    Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cujo665 View Post
    The way they calculate it, it actually gets worse each month. Here is their warped way of thinking:
    the top most expensive 300-400 are not leaving; so as we shrink through attrition we actually become more senior (longevity wise) as a percentage of the whole. Isn't it amazing what they can do with numbers?

    on the OP's original topic; I like Oddball's posts.

    What is amazing is what the pilots are going to do with a phone next week.
    That's amazing!!!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Flugschlafen View Post
    I'd actually have to run the numbers, but if more 10+ year pilots leave the total cost savings vs. the lifers remaining could be greater.

    In other words, if (as seniority advances and people upgrade) if the average years of seniority at departure is 12 years and 500 people have to leave before the average system seniority begins to drop below the lifer's cost, the real problem is advancement and departure. Not the lifers. There may be little to no cost disparity between the overall pilot cost and any additional cost generated by the lifers. Plus, the fact that the offers the company has made to grandfather the lifer's pay scale in makes me think they really aren't that concerned about how much they cost, only creating a low-wage future for the entire airline.



    Typical, they create the problem but blame the pilots. If they let the flow work it would be a big step in dropping the large group in mid-seniority that have been waiting to upgrade for a long time. As soon as they upgrade, they cost a lot more because they've waited so long to upgrade.

    oh no, I totally get what you're saying and I agree. What I'm saying is the longevity as a percentage of the whole group goes up. Money wise, the expensive Mid level CA's are being replaced with more junior ones so the cost does go down; however... with the 300-400 guys not leaving as we shrink the longevity as a percetage of the whole does go up. It's the warped mystery math they use. Remember when the war cry used to be industry average? Now it's be competative with whomever the lowest cost provider is.... which is way way below industry average.

    It's why you can't give them ANYTHING. They obtained industry average on most things long ago. Now they want industry lowest. The level of Parker's greed knows no bounds. Pilots litterally on food stamps, and he wants more concessions.

    They're going to profit over $4 billion dollars this year. Forget about raises, if we can't even hold our own under these conditions, then when may we ever expect to even get a cost of living raise? The answer is never under this leadership. We will NEVER share in the fruits of our labor under this management team in my opinion.

    They say they can get lower costs elsewhere. They may be able to, but how does that happen? By having pilots so poor they have to sleep on couches in crew rooms; and commute across the country on overnight cargo flgihts; that's how. Then they hop into a plane full of AAG passengers connecting from an AA mainline flight, and head off to BUF in a snowstorm.
    Last edited by Cujo665; 08-31-2014 at 10:59 AM.
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    I think the reason they want 12/4 is that they know the shortage won't last forever. The next 7 to 10 years looks pretty good, after that hiring should slow down considerably. The Vietnam guys are all retiring in that timeframe after that there really wasn't much hiring till the mid to late 80's.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NoOtPilot View Post
    Agree.

    They want Evoy at around 1,400 active pilots. To staff aprox. 110 planes at Envoy + (20 to compass and 20 to PDT,) = a total of 150 planes to feed AAG, remember the original order was 60, 90 and that is 150 planes, which is the number that they guaranteed on this latest proposal down from 170( 118 + 47) on the previous one).

    175's x 76 seats = 8,360 seats.
    or
    118 EMB x 50 = 5,900
    47 CRJ x 64 = 3,008
    --------
    Total 8,908
    seats available
    per mile
    ASM

    Same capacity whith a lot less crews and a lot less planes.

    Keep in mind that the new Envoy building is 155,00sq/ft and simulators fit perfectly in it, but only when they reinforce the floor to sustain the weight of the sim.
    175 x76 doesn't equal 8360......I sorted through it and you're saying 110 EMB 175s vs. 165 of the current fleet right?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cujo665 View Post
    oh no, I totally get what you're saying and I agree. What I'm saying is the longevity as a percentage of the whole group goes up. Money wise, the expensive Mid level CA's are being replaced with more junior ones so the cost does go down; however... with the 300-400 guys not leaving as we shrink the longevity as a percetage of the whole does go up. It's the warped mystery math they use. Remember when the war cry used to be industry average? Now it's be competative with whomever the lowest cost provider is.... which is way way below industry average.

    .
    We're on the same page, but my point is that with staffing and airline size reductions the lack of upward movement raises the non-lifer overall seniority across the board. I can guess that it's actually pretty good right now, but if things continue to shrink, the lower group, as a total, gets more or less expensive depending on how many leave. I don't know what the tipping point is, but I also question whether management has bothered to do such an analysis. It would certainly point to ensuring upward movement and continued hiring of bottom pay bracket pilots, but the company really seems to be making an effort to do the opposite.
    Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Command 1987 View Post
    I think the reason they want 12/4 is that they know the shortage won't last forever. The next 7 to 10 years looks pretty good, after that hiring should slow down considerably. The Vietnam guys are all retiring in that timeframe after that there really wasn't much hiring till the mid to late 80's.
    Do you know any Viet Nam Guys still flying??

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheRaven View Post
    175 x76 doesn't equal 8360......I sorted through it and you're saying 110 EMB 175s vs. 165 of the current fleet right?
    Correct.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mwa View Post
    Do you know any Viet Nam Guys still flying??
    Yes, but all retire in the next 7 to ten years or so.

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    image.jpg

    Retirements by the numbers.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NoOtPilot View Post
    Agree.

    They want Evoy at around 1,400 active pilots. To staff aprox. 110 planes at Envoy + (20 to compass and 20 to PDT,) = a total of 150 planes to feed AAG, remember the original order was 60, 90 and that is 150 planes, which is the number that they guaranteed on this latest proposal down from 170( 118 + 47) on the previous one).

    110 175's x 76 seats = 8,360 seats.
    or
    118 EMB x 50 = 5,900
    47 CRJ x 64 = 3,008
    --------
    Total 8,908
    seats available
    per mile
    ASM

    Same capacity whith a lot less crews and a lot less planes.

    Keep in mind that the new Envoy building is 155,00sq/ft and simulators fit perfectly in it, but only when they reinforce the floor to sustain the weight of the sim.
    The 150 hull minimum was from our offer. Theirs from Glass was 40.
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    Oddball's big picture.


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    I DO NOT CLAIM TO BE OMNISCIENT NOR INFALLIBLE BUT WITH THIS POST I'M TRYING TO TAKE US TO THE NEXT LEVEL, BEYOND THE PETTY STRUGGLE WE ARE ENGAGED IN.


    PLEASE TAKE A MOMENT TO REALLY READ IT AS WE'VE JUST BEGUN THE STRUGGLE TO TAKE OUR PROFESSION BACK AND IT WILL BE FOUGHT ON MANY FRONTS. FEEL FREE TO SHARE IT WITH OTHERS ON OTHER WEB BOARDS.


    WE NEED POSITIVE DISCUSSIONS THAT BULD MUTUAL TRUST, FOLLOWED BY POSITIVE ACTION DEMONSTRATING WE ARE WILLING TO PUT OUR INDIVIDUAL INTERESTS ASIDE WHEN THE TIMES CALL FOR IT TO ADVANCE OUR PROFESSION.


    I WAS GOING TO WAIT A BIT AS I KNOW MANY ARE STILL FRETTING OVER ENVOYS FUTURE.


    BUT MAVERICK IS IN A RARE MOOD TODAY AND MAKING SENSE TO ME.




    Here and now:


    On our property management is trying to exact better terms by applying leverage against our current CBA by withholding awards of new aircraft.


    Far from being innovative this has been standard practice for years and at all carriers.


    You have to understand that any fleet transition creates upheaval as the old fleet is slowly retired. Temporary contraction and disruption of schedules and markets served are a given byproduct. This creates a ripe opportunity for management to exploit fear of the unknown.


    Am I worried about Envoys future?


    Plain and simply NO. Time and time again it has been proven that the bleak picture that management paints is just an illusion.


    Just the opposite usually occurs in that after labor has been locked into new agreements the curtain is pulled aside and the true scope of the new planned operation is revealed and it far exceeds anything they said or we expected.


    This is just smart business on their part. They use the transition process to veil pilot leverage and instead create anxiety, especially among initiates.
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




    But that doesn't mean that career-wise we as pilots should not be worried; the true danger is from another source.


    If you take a minute to reason on the fact, it should be obvious that the downside potential for compensation on the regional side is far less than on the mainline side.


    Like a thief casing a neighborhood it is the richer homes that get hit. Corporate greed follows the money. Mainline contracts still are the plum ripe for exploitation and managements hope to be able, in the future, to exploit this source to boost profits and line their pockets.


    The amendment of the AA SCOPE clause under the recent bankruptcy was no accident on AAG's part. It was THE reason for the bankruptcy. This was the one issue that the APA absolutely refused to budge on in over 10 years of a contentious labor standoff. And this struggle has been repeated over and over on all mainline properties.


    To ignore or downplay this as having no impact on future careers at mainline is ignoring a very compelling repetitive history of just that.


    The decisions we make at the regionals today will have a significant impact on future careers at mainline.


    Ignore this fact at your peril.


    The lower we sink the more attractive we become. To encourage yet further attacks on SCOPE.


    What about the projected hiring boom?


    Based on statistics some of it is bound to become true.


    But take a minute to consider why you are giving up being a RJ captain to be an FO at mainline. It is not to be that FO, but it is based on expected career progression. The weak link here is that an average career can span 25 years or more and most of the projected upside comes towards the end of that period.


    This is how managements have learned to subvert scope. Once you are at a mainline your "all in" as the saying goes. You sail or sink with the ship. Years of vested sweat and dedication can vanish overnight. Management knows this and counts on it. When faced with the choice of stagnation or worse each successive generation of "captains in waiting" and middle to mid-range captains has had to accept SCOPE amendments as the cost of doing business and moving on.


    We tend to learn life's lessons far too late, and the youth are always in denial. I experienced this recently on a United jumpseat. The FO was all excited about his rosy future while the Captain was already planning his retirement based on the next projected bankruptcy cycle. He said, he saw so many lose so much during the last round; he was not going to be greedy but cut his loses early.


    The most interesting part of the exchange is what he said about ALPA.


    He said that in the last round of bankruptcy ALPA sold a lousy deal to the rank and file United pilots by promoting the idea that they had developed the perfect never again ironclad SCOPE agreement. "What a bunch of "Horseshi*".


    His words, not mine, but I absolutely agree.




    Management is so successful in that they are constantly revamping and honing their strategy. The last thing we should do is be predictable and rely on static defense like SCOPE clauses as a deterrent. Ask the French how the Maginot line worked out for them.


    We must never forget upper management are mostly MBA's. The art of the deal is their bread and butter. They are innovative, adaptable and flexible in finding creative ways to circumvent labor. As if this were not enough management has definitely gained the upper edge in the political arena and the courts.


    APA valiantly tried to hold the line at all costs. Ask the AA pilots who were furloughed for 10 years and 15 plus year AA FO's how that impacted their quality of life and career earnings.


    Worse. In the end after all that struggle the company pulls out the rug utilizing favorable corporate bankruptcy laws.


    The reason I point this out is that not one thing labor has done in the last 25 years has stopped the steady march of regional growth at the expense of mainline SCOPE. Every so called fix by the unions has failed and as a result pilot QOL as a whole no matter where you sit has degraded significantly.


    Because most of you are relatively new in your careers you don't see the full import due to gradualism. The ugly truth is the legacy carriers are just a shell of what they once were for employees.


    Mainline pilots take note!


    Now some argue that the supply and demand market alone (and I stress alone) is going to change this. This again is self-delusion. Currently we see very real reverse economics in front of our very eyes. Regionals being unable to find qualified candidates and yet managements demanding and in some cases already gaining concessions.


    Is this scary? You bet it is; and if you are blatantly honest with yourself and stop deluding yourself with the " it won't happen to me" philosophy the truth of what I say will dawn on you.


    Is there a fix. I truthfully cannot give a definitive answer to that question but I can point out the cause. And the key to curing any disease is first finding its cause.


    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  19. #19
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    The answer is actually rather benign and unexciting; so allow me a little dramatic license here in the introduction.


    The cause in its most simplest terms boils down to the old adage "divide and conquer" or as Lincoln said " a house divided against itself cannot stand".


    As I've mentioned I'm an avid student of history, particularly, military tactics. Any general worth his stars dreams of being able to use his massed army to engage his opponent piecemeal in smaller actions before they can consolidate. For you southern boys, R.E. LEE was a master of this.


    Politics is a world of its own; and I want to be clear, I abhor it, but recognize it as a necessary cost of doing business in today's world. Therefore, I use it as it suits me, but don't endorse any particular cause.


    This being said Heide Oberndorf is spot on.




    IT IS THE CAREFULLY ORCHESTRATED DIVISION OF LABOR AND THE LACK OF COLLECTIVE UNITY OF THOUGHT AND PURPOSE THAT IT CREATES THAT MAKES MANAGEMENT SO SUCCESSFUL.


    Memorize it, print it, put it in your own words but just don't forget it.
    Everything management does has this as it's end goal.


    There is a big difference in KNOWING what this means and RECOGNIZING AND ACCEPTING what this means. KNOWING AND ACCEPTING TAKES AWAY A LARGE AMOUNT OF THE FEAR AND IT ALSO POINTS TO A COURSE OF ACTION.


    THE EXTENT TO WHICH YOU ULTIMATELY BENEFIT IS DIRECTLY PROPORTIONAL TO THE DEGREE TO WHICH YOU BAND TOGETHER, BOTH WITHIN YOUR GROUP, AND WITH OTHER GROUPS OF PILOTS.


    Notice that I use the word "ULTIMATELY" above and it is with good reason.


    Management does a fantastic job of masking their true intent. How often have pilots assumed the worst and raced to accept concessions only to face a head-slapping "DOH" moment shortly thereafter.


    PDT pilots take note. You may be small as a seniority list, but you and your families are not alone in your struggle.

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    Many are finally starting to recognize we are professional pilots first and regional and mainline pilots second. Many regional pilots are finally grasping the futility of accepting concessions at the expense of their peers for empty promises of tomorrow.


    Even the career politicians at ALPA national are sensing a shift in the wind and hedging their bets. This is not the time to mock them. Politicians are just that, politicians; embodying everything the word itself implies. But their help grudging or otherwise could be a deal changer. They have access to doors and ears we can only dream of.


    To you initiates, this process may seem bewilderIng, but you dare not take it at face value. This is a very Machiavellian process with so many levels it makes "dungeons and dragons" seem like "Candy lane" ( giving away my age here).


    The thing to remember though is that it is just that a game. Albeit a serious one.

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